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1、22January2020EquityResearchAsiaPacific
2、ChinaChinaOnlineLendingSectorAroughpatchaheadConsumerFinance
3、SectorReviewFigure1:YoYgrowthinloanoriginationvolume,FY19/20EResearchAnalystsFY19EFY20E100%YiranZhong80%8522101612560%yiran.zhong@credit-suisse.com40%20%CharlesZhou,CF
4、A0%85221016177-20%charles.zhou@credit-suisse.com-40%LexinVCredit9FYRDFinVQudian(openQudian(loanRichieJiangplatform)book)85221016198richie.jiang@credit-suisse.comSource:Companydata,CreditSuisseestimatesSectorheadwindsmoresevereforhigh-APRlenders.Headinginto2020,wearet
5、urningincrementallycautious,asregulatory-drivendisruptionstocreditsupplyarestartingtocauseliquiditysqueezesespeciallyamonghighAPR-cohortborrowers.Astheoverallriskenvironmentbecomesmorechallenging,manyonlinelendersaresoundingincreasinglycautiousabouttheirloangrowthout
6、lookandriskmetrics.Addingtothis,selectiveplatformswithsizeableP2PexposurearestillintheprocessoftransitioningtowardsinstitutionalfundingwhileadjustingdowneffectiveAPR.Trialregulationkicksoff.AstheP2PbusinessmodelinChinaprobablyapproachesitsgrandfinale,weexpectashiftin
7、regulatoryfocustowardsloanfacilitationwhiletrialregulationkicksoffformicro-creditlicences.Regulatoryclarityonbank-Fintechcooperationisalsoincreasing.Meanwhile,weexpectcontinuedeffortsbyonlinelenderstopursuevariousfinanciallicencesasahedgetopotentialregulatorytighteni
8、ng.Cuttingvolumeandearningsforecastamidhigherrisks.Amongtheonlinelendersunderourcoverage,wecutvolumegrowthby5-36%forFY20E.Qudian’sopenplatformvolumeseemsthemostvulnerableasitsinstitutionalpartnersmaybehesitanttogrowloanvolumeamiddeterioratingriskmetrics.Wealsoexpectm
9、arginpressurefrom:(1)furtherdownwardpressureonAPR;(2)highercreditcost;and(3)thenegativetake-rateimpactduetoanincreasingproportionofloanoriginationundernon-guaranteemodel.WecutFY20Eearningsforecastsby49%/44%/37%/17%/7%forQudian/9F/VCredit/FinV/YRD,respectively.OUTPERF
10、ORMs.Lexin(toppick),FinV,VCredit.WebelieveLexinisbetter-positionedamongonlinelendingpeerstoweatherthecurrentindustryenvironmentthan
