亚太地区风险与机会定位.docx

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1、EquityResearchAsiaPacificAsiaPacificStrategyPositioningforrisksandopportunitiesStrategy

2、StrategyFigure1:Ourindexof6MleadingAxJmarketindicatorsatpost-GFChighResearchAnalysts3.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.5Dec-08Feb-10Apr-11Jun-12Aug-13Oct-14Dec-15Feb-17Apr-18Jun-1960%50%40%30%20%10

3、%0%-10%-20%-30%DanFineman6626146218dan.fineman@credit-suisse.comWillStephens85221017079will.stephens@credit-suisse.comEdmondHuang85221016701edmond.huang@credit-suisse.comKinNangChik85221017482Indexofleadingmarketindicators(LHS)MSCIAxJindex6Mforwardreturns(RHS)Source:Refinitiv,CreditSu

4、isseAxJcanoutperformonthedownside.AlthoughweexpectthatabsoluteperformancewillfollownewsflowoninfectionsandfinancialstressesintheWest,withthepotentialformoreshort-termdownside,webelievethatAxJcanoutperformthisyearineitherapositiveornegativeglobalscenario.ValuationsfavourAxJoverotherregi

5、ons,andourindexofleadingAxJmarketindicatorsisinstronglybullishterritoryatapost-GFChigh.WebelievethatNorthAsiacancontinuetosucceedmorethanotherregionsincontainingthevirusatsmallereconomiccost.EPSrevisionsandfallingoilpricesfavourAsiarelativetootherregions.WejudgeAxJ’sheavytechweightinga

6、sanadvantage.Revisionstomarketandsectorweightings.Inourfirstmajorrebalancingsincethevirushit,weincorporateviewsonvirusriskandfinancialcontagionrisktocomplementourexistingfundamentalsscoringsystem.WeaddtoourexistingOverweightsinKorea,SingaporeandMalaysiaanddowngradeIndonesiafromOverweig

7、httoMarketWeightandIndiafromMarketWeighttoUnderweight.Insectors,ourbiggestOverweightsremainITandinternet,butwedowngradeInsurancefromOverweighttoUnderweightontheweakratesoutlook.Stockpositioning.Weoffertwobasketsoftoppicks—oneaBase-Casebasketwithafairlyneutralaggressive/defensivebias,an

8、dasecondBear-Casebasketfocusedondefensives.OurportfoliosareconstructedbyourAPACQuantitativeandSystematicStrategyteam.TheyemploytheBlackLittermanmodeltocombineourvarioustop-down(market/sectorweightings)andbottom-upviews(beststockpicksbyourcountrystrategists)inaconsistentmannerandtheno