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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateHongKongChinesebroker30January2018Banking/FinanceBrokersIndustryUpdateLexieZhouEstherChweiEarningsonrecoverytrack,regulatoryResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+852)22036180(+852)22036200riskstotheupside;reiteratingBuylexie.zhou@db.com
2、esther.chwei@db.comLimiteddownsiderisks;preferlargeplayersKeyChangesAftersignificantunderperformancein2017vs.Financialpeers,ChineseCompanyTargetPriceRatingbrokersfinallyplayedcatch-upin2018(+14%YTD).WereiterateourPositive1776.HK21.30to-sectorview,on1)recoveringmarketactivi
3、ty(YTDADTofRmb528bn,+40%24.00(HKD)yoy,marginfinancingbalanceofRmb1,083bn,+6%YTDandSHCOMP+7%to600030.SS18.70to->3,500),2)abetterearningsoutlookin2018Eonlowbase,especiallyin21.50(CNY)1H18E,3)potentialrelaxationoninnovativebusinessesasafurthercatalyst.600837.SS15.30to-Largepl
4、ayerswithanestablishedfranchise,strongcapital&decentrisk13.10(CNY)managementwillbenefitmostontheregulatoryfront,inourview.Weadd601688.SH19.10to-GFStoourTopPicksonattractiveriskreward,alongsideHuatai&CITICS.20.40(CNY)6030.HK21.10to-Regulations–riskstotheupside25.00(HKD)Besi
5、desasluggishmarket,especiallyin1H17,aseriesofregulationson6066.HK9.10to9.50(HKD)-financialdeleveragingin2017hasweigheddownsentimentonChinese6099.HK14.50to-brokers,mainlyontheassetmanagementbusiness.However,theimpactwill15.00(HKD)mainlybeonchannelbusiness,whichaccountedfor~
6、2%ofmajorbrokers’6178.HK12.40to-operatingrevenue.Webelievetheregulatoryoverhanghasbeenlargely12.50(HKD)removedforbrokers,andwehavestartedtoseesignsofpotentialrelaxation6837.HK17.30to-15.30(HKD)oninnovativebusinesses.Withagoodmarketenvironment,andtheIPO6881.HK8.70to9.10(HKD
7、)-marketontracktobecomemorecompliant,webelieveitisreasonableforthe6886.HK21.60to-regulatortoassessthefeasibilityofinnovativebusinesses,toapproachthe23.70(HKD)long-termgoalofestablishingmulti-layeredcapitalmarketswithdiversificationSource:DeutscheBankinfinancialinstruments.
8、Whileitisstillearlytoassessthepotentialearningsimpact,webelievethiscouldweighonthepositiv
