德银-中国-信贷市场-中国金融资产管理公司（amcs）扩张过度，谨慎买入

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaCorporateCreditDateChinaFinancials9February2018ViacheslavShilin,MBAResearchAnalystAsiaCredit(+65)64235726viacheslav.shilin@db.comChinaAMCs-spreadwideningisYuvarajBholeResearchAssociateoverdone-Buyselectivelyyuvaraj.bhole@db.comIthasbeenatoughwee

2、kforAsiaCreditwherebythespreaddirectionhaslargelyfailedtomanifestitselfinaunifiedmannerandbondstradingremainedquitevolatileacrossIG,HY,corporatesandsovereigns.WhatremainsunchangedistheclearandsignificantunderperformanceofChinaAMCbondsinthecontextofChinaIGandAsiaIGasawhole.Aso

3、urteamhasalreadyreiteratedonseveraloccasionsearlierthisweek–wedefyanymeaningfullongevityofthecreditmarketssell-offandbelievethatthebuyingondipsistherightapproachthatinvestorsshoulddeploy.Howeveritshouldbeexercisedselectivelyandmainlyforthosecreditsthathavesolidfundamentaltren

4、dsand/orpositivecatalystsinthenearterm.WebelievethatChinaAMCsbelongtosuchacategoryofAsiancreditsandthepurposeofthisnoteistoexplaintoinvestorsthatthespreadwideningforChinaAMCshasbeenoverdoneandweseesomeviablebuyingopportunitiesamongsttheirunderlyingbonds.InFig1wecompareG-sprea

5、dperformanceamongstbenchmarkbondsforAsianfinancialsvs.YTDand2017tights.Therearetwomajortakeaways:(i)ChinaAMCsandalsoleasingcompanybondsproliferateamongsttheweakesttradingnamesYTD.Sector-wise,weconsiderAMCsandleasingasperhapsmostvisiblyimprovingsegmentsamongstAsianfinancials,w

6、ithrareexceptions,hencewouldurgeinvestorsrethinktheirpositioninginthemtotheupside.(ii)Theshorter-datedbondsunderperformedthemostvs.theirlong-endequivalents(especiallyforAMCs).Additionally,the20-25bpwideningofspreadsfor5-9YdatedHuarongpaperrendersexcessivevs.10-20bpwideningfor

7、similarlydatedChinaIGcorporates(notshownonthischart,butcalculatedseparately).Originally,5-10YpartofAMCcurveshadunderperformedvs.therestofChinaRiskstoourrecommendations:IGspacefollowingChina’ssovereignbondissuancelastyear(Oct).Thatunderperformancehasneverreallybeenrecoupedandw

8、ebelievethattheUpside-higherthanexpectedeconomiclatestepisodehasmade