德银-中国-银行业-中国银行业：德银accesschina会议要点

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateHongKongChineseBanks21January2018Banking/FinanceBanksIndustryUpdateHansFan,CFAJackyZuoDBAccessChinaconferenceResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+852)22036353(+852)22036255highlightshans.fan@db.comjacky.zuo@db.comWhat’sinthereport?EdwardDuThisr

2、eportcombinestakeawaysfromtheDBChinaconference,includingResearchAssociatemeetingswith12banksandatwo-daytriptovisitunlistedbanksinEastern(+852)22036185China.Theeventaffirmedourviewsof:1)amodestrecoveryinbankearningsedward.du@db.comin2018;2)fundingstrengthisstillthekeydifferentiating

3、factoramidpolicytightening;3)themarketmayhaveunderestimatedtheimpactoftighterToppicksregulationsonsmallerbanks.Meanwhile,wesenseinvestors’focusontheChinabankingsectorhasshiftedawayfromassetqualityriskafteryearsofBankofChina(3988.HK),HKD4.43Buydiscussionandmoretowardsbanks’revenuegr

4、owthanddifferentiatedAgri.BankofChina(1288.HK),HKD4.50Buystrategies.Wecontinuetopreferretail-orientedbankstotherest.Source:DeutscheBankManagementoutlooksfor2018CompaniesFeaturedOverall,bankmanagementsexpectmodestlyimprovingoperationaltrendsinICBC(1398.HK),HKD7.19Buy2018(Figure1).We

5、forecastlistedbankstorecord6.5%yoynetprofitgrowthChinaConstructionBankBuy(vs.4.3%in2017),whileweexpectretailbanks(big-four/CMB/CRCB)todeliver(0939.HK),HKD8.48betterqualityresults.Specificallyonearningsdrivers:Agri.BankofChina(1288.HK),HKD4.50BuyBankofChina(3988.HK),HKD4.43BuyNIM–M

6、ostbanksexpectNIMtoexpandmodestly,drivenbyfasterBankofCommunicationsBuyincreasesinassetyieldsthaninfundingcosts.(3328.HK),HKD6.51Loans–Mostbanksseelargelythesamenewloanamountsin2018vs.ChinaMerchantsBankHold(3968.HK),HKD36.502017andhenceslightlyslowerloangrowth.Loanmixislikelytobes

7、imilarChinaCITICBank(0998.HK),HKD6.18Holdtolastyear’s,i.e.,50%ofnewloansmadetoretailcustomers,40%toChinaMinshengBank(1988.HK),HKD8.56Holdcorporatecustomersand10%tooverseasmarket.Amongretailloans,CEB(6818.HK),HKD4.23Holdbanksfocusmoreonconsumptionloansandcreditcardinstallments.Chong

8、qingRuralBank(3618.HK),HKD