德银-中国-银行业-中国银行业2018年展望：政策紧缩和改革的定位

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateHongKongChinesebanks-2January2018Banking/FinanceBanks2018OutlookRecommendationChangeHansFan,CFAJackyZuo,CFAPositioninginpolicytighteningandResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+852)22036353(+852)22036255reforminghans.fan@db.comjacky.zuo@db.comAnotheryearofdive

2、rgenceamongbanks;stillpreferretail-orientedbanksEdwardDuChinahasmadecontainingfinancialrisksatoppriority.FinancialdeleveragingResearchAssociatemaylastlongerthanexpected,withhighermarketratesandmorecoordinated(+852)22036185buttighterregulations.Thismayleadtomoderatecreditgrowthbutsloweredward.du@d

3、b.comleveragebuild-upandhence,lessfinancialstabilityrisk.Onthebanks’assetside,weexpectsupply-sidereformwillbestrictlyfollowedandSOEreformKeyChangesmayaccelerate,leadingtoimprovingcorporatefinancialhealth.Thus,westaypositiveontheChinesebanksector.WeexpectwiderdivergencebetweenCompanyTargetPriceRat

4、ingretailbanks(big-4/CMB/CRCB)andtherest,asfundingstrengthremainsthe1398.HK6.52to7.52(HKD)-keydifferentiatingfactor;upgradingCRCBtoBuy–toppicks:BOC&ABC.601398.SS5.98to6.50(CNY)-601939.SS7.04to7.67(CNY)-Financialdeleveraging:marketratehikes,newcommittee,tighterregulations601288.SS3.75to4.09(CNY)-I

5、nthepastyear,China’sfinancialdeleveragingcampaignhasmadeprogress.Yetweareprobablystillinthefirsthalfoftheprocess,asM2/GDPandcredit-601988.SS4.38to4.54(CNY)-to-depositratiosremainelevated.Weexpectmonetarypolicyandmacro-601328.SS5.98to6.30(CNY)-prudentialpolicytostayonthetighteningside.Ourratesstra

6、tegistexpectsa600036.SS24.06to-hiketotalof20-45bpsinOMOratesuntil2018(note).Newregulationsonasset27.13(CNY)management(note)andliquidityrisks(note)willbephasedin.Withthe601998.SS4.28to4.56(CNY)-FinancialStabilityandDevelopmentCommittee–thenewcommittee600016.SS7.15to7.51(CNY)-coordinatingfinancialr

7、egulators–leading,moreregulationsarelikelytobe600000.SS12.75to-followed.Systemwise,weexpectslowercreditgrowth,shrinkingshadow13.61(CNY)bankingandlessrelianceonwholesalefunding.Retailbanksshouldbenefit601166.SS14.92to-f