中国-银行业-中国银行业：为什 么信贷紧缩对银行来说更痛苦？

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1、ABGlobalResearch18July2018ChinaBanksChinaWhyisn’tcredittighteningmorepainfulforbanks?Part2–theassetsideWhat357bankstellusaboutcredittighteningOuranalysishighlightsthreekeytakeawaysontheprogressofcredittightening.First,assetgrowthslowedsharply—loangrowthhasnot.T

2、hisloan-centricgrowththoughisresultinginratesspikeinthecreditmarkets.Second,creditissuanceisincreasinglyfocusedontherealeconomy,whichweviewaspositive.Thirdly,byanalysingbankswiththesharpestbalancesheetcontractions,weexpectifthecurrentpaceoftighteningismaintaine

3、d,theimpactonbankswillbecomesignificantlymorepainful.Loangrowthsurged,assetgrowthdidnotWhileassetgrowthnearlyhalvedin2017,loanssurgedfromanaverageof41%ofnetnewassetformationfrom2014-2016to58%in2017—callingintoquestionwhetherthecurrentsituationcanbecalled“credit

4、tightening”.Butthereisanimpact.Thisloan-concentratedgrowthhasledbankstoexittheirmostliquidassets,suchasbonds,WMPinvestmentsandinterbankloans,resultinginliquiditystressinthecreditmarkets.CreditefficiencyisimprovingLoangrowthwasdrivenbyasharpincreaseinmicro-small

5、sizedenterprise(MSE)lendingandconsumerlending.Non-MSEcorporateloansconverselyshrankinrelativeandabsoluteterms—suggestingstate-ownedenterprises(SOEs)andlocalgovernmentsarebeingsqueezed.Assetgrowthpatternsin2017alsoreversedahistoricaltrendwhereinthefastestgrowing

6、bankswerethejoint-stockbanks(JSBs)andregionalbanksinweakereconomies.JSBsshrankasa%oftotalassetswhileregionallendersinheavyindustry-ledeconomiessawoutrightcontractionormuchslowerassetexpansion.Whenithappens,deleveragingisgoingtobepainful41bankssawYoYassetcontrac

7、tionin2017—butonlyoneofthosenamessawadecreaseinloansaswell.Nearlyallofthesebankswerebasedinweakereconomies,particularlyJilininthenortheast,whichsawtotallocalbankcontractionof8.5%.NPLratiosdidnotworsenasmuchasexpected—butnon-NPLindicatorsrevealedsharplyincreased

8、assetqualitystress,particularlyintermsofbadassetformationoutsideofloanbooksandNIMcontraction.Ouranalysissuggestscontinuedtighteningwillrampupassetqualityandcapitalpressuresf