德银-中国-银行业-金融去杠杆化影响系列5：改革监管机构

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChinaChinesebanks1March2018Banking/FinanceBanksIndustryUpdateHansFan,CFAJackyZuo,CFAFinancialdeleveragingimpactSeries5ResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+852)22036353(+852)22036255–Reformingtheregulatorshans.fan@db.comjacky.zuo@db.comOutlookforregulatory

2、frameworkchanges,positivetoreducesystemicrisksEdwardDuReformofChina’sfinancialregulatorsisunderway.ThedirectionistofurtherResearchAssociatestrengthencoordination,fixloopholes,andtightenrulesonshadowbanking.(+852)22036185TheestablishmentoftheFinancialStabilityandDevelopmentCommitteeedward.du@d

3、b.com(FSDC)–the“super-regulator”thatcoordinatesregulators–isnotableprogress.Subsequently,weexpectsub-committeestobesetupundertheKeyChangesFSDC,localfinancialregulatorsfurtherempowered,andkeypersonneldetermined.Overall,weexpectthesechangestobenetpositivefortheCompanyTargetPriceRatingfinancials

4、ystemasawhole,althoughtheimpactsonfinancialinstitutions1398.HK7.52to7.87(HKD)-differ.Wepreferdeposit-fundedbanks,Lexin,FarEastHorizonandCinda.0939.HK8.87to9.29(HKD)-1288.HK4.73to4.95(HKD)-Whydoweneedchanges?Whathasbeendonesofar?3988.HK5.25to5.50(HKD)-China’sregulatoryframeworkisfragmentedandh

5、aslaggedthefast-growing,3328.HK7.29to7.63(HKD)-increasinglycomplexfinancialsector,whoseassetsamountedtoRmb388trin3968.HK31.38to-2017,ora20%CAGRoverthepastsevenyears.Therehasbeen:1)lackof32.85(HKD)sufficientcoordination;2)lackofindependenceduetoconflictingobjectives;0998.HK5.28to5.53(HKD)-3)lo

6、opholesthathaveledtoregulatoryarbitrage.Notableprogressinpasttwo1988.HK8.68to9.09(HKD)-yearshasincluded:1)theestablishmentoftheFSDC,whichisabovethefour6818.HK3.72to3.90(HKD)-financialregulatorsandisledbythevicepremier;2)theintroductionofMPA.3618.HK7.00to7.33(HKD)-Whatwillhappen?Weexpectthefol

7、lowingdetailstobereleasedafterNPC1963.HK6.50to6.81(HKD)-StrengtheningauthoritativepowerofFSDCbysettingupsub-committees3698.HK3.49to3.66(HKD)-inchargeoffinancialstability,monetarypolicyandprudentialregulationsSource:DeutscheBankReformoflocal