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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateHongKongChinesebanks14November2017Banking/FinanceBanksIndustryUpdateHansFan,CFAJackyZuoOct2017bankingdata–OrderlyResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+852)22036353(+852)22036255financialdeleveraginghans.fan@db.comjacky.zuo@db.comSlowercreditandban
2、kingassetsgrowth,butwithimprovingmixEdwardDuAccordingtothelatestdataonloans/TSFandthebankingsystem,China’sResearchAssociatefinancialdeleveraginghasbeenorderly:creditgrowthsoftenedfurther,(+852)22036185M2/GDPcontinuedtoslide,shadowbankinghasbeenshrinkingwhileloanedward.du@db.comgrowth
3、stayedresilientandwholesalefundingdeclined.Anotherpositivedevelopmentsthismonthisthatshort-termconsumptionloanshaveslowedonToppickstighterrules,anotableportionofwhichwasusedtofinancepropertypurchases.Fromthefinancialsystem’sperspective,weseeimprovingBankofChina(3988.HK),HKD3.83Buytra
4、nsparencyandlowersystemicliquidityrisks.BigbanksshouldbethekeyAgri.BankofChina(1288.HK),HKD3.64Buybeneficiariesoftheneutralizedmonetarypolicy.ChinaConstructionBankBuy(0939.HK),HKD6.83Softenedcreditgrowth,leadingtomoderatedsystemleverageSource:DeutscheBankPBOCreleasedOctnewloansofRmb6
5、63bnandTSFofRmb1,040bn,bothfallingshortofconsensus.IncludingthenewmunicipalbondsofRmb340bn,CompaniesFeaturedtheadjustedsystemcreditgrowthslowedmildlyto14.9%yoyfrom15.0%lastICBC(1398.HK),HKD6.20Buymonth.Notably,followingaseriesoftighteningregulations,banksarebringingChinaConstructionB
6、ankBuyoff-BSshadowbankingintoon-BS,leadingtostableloangrowth(13.0%yoy),(0939.HK),HKD6.83butslowershadowbankinggrowth.Wenotethatbanks,especiallysmallerAgri.BankofChina(1288.HK),HKD3.64Buybanks,havebeenshrinkingtheiron-/BSreceivableinvestments,whichmainlyBankofChina(3988.HK),HKD3.83Buy
7、consistsofshadowbankingcredit.SlowercreditgrowthresultedinslowerBankofCommunicationsBuyM2.Together,withpick-upinnominalGDP,ithasledtolowerM2/GDP,(3328.HK),HKD5.82droppingto206%inOct2017versustherecord-highof210%thisMarch.ChinaMerchantsBankHold(3968.HK),HKD30.65Whoisborrowing?Househol
8、dborrowedles
