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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateHongKongChinesebanks15January2018Banking/FinanceBanksIndustryUpdateHansFan,CFAJackyZuoDec2017bankingdata–CreditResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+852)22036353(+852)22036255growthslowedamidpolicytighteninghans.fan@db.comjacky.zuo@
2、db.comCBRCadvocatedstrengtheningregulations;creditgrowthwillslowfurtherEdwardDuNewloansofRmb548bnandTSFofRmb1.14trfellshortofconsensusforDecResearchAssociate2017,leadingtoslowercreditgrowthof13.8%(Nov:14.4%),ifadjustedfor(+852)22036185munibondsandequityfinancing.In2018
3、,weexpectcreditgrowthtoslowtoedward.du@db.com12-13%yoy(Fig1),givencontinuedtightening.TheCBRCannouncedon13Janitwilldeepenregulatorycontrolsonincompliantactivities.After8monthsToppicksofself-checkingbybanks,whichunveiledRmb17.6trincompliantassets(7%oftotalbankingassets)
4、,theCBRChasshiftedfocusfromself-checkingtoBankofChina(3988.HK),HKD4.11Buyrequiringrectification,whichcouldimposepressureoncapitalandearningsofAgri.BankofChina(1288.HK),HKD4.00Buysmallerbanks.Weremaincautiousoncorporate-orientatedbanks.Source:DeutscheBankCircularNo.4in2
5、018–FurtherdeepeningcontrolsonincomplianttransactionsCompaniesFeaturedTheCBRCinApr2017issuedahandfuloftighterregulations,knownas“3-3-ICBC(1398.HK),HKD6.64Buy4-10”series,whichrequiredcomprehensiveself-checkingbybanksmainlyonChinaConstructionBankBuyinterbankandshadowbank
6、ingbusinesses.Theresultswererecentlyunveiled(0939.HK),HKD7.78indicatingthattherewereRmb17.6trassetsintotalidentifiedasincompliant.Agri.BankofChina(1288.HK),HKD4.00BuyFollowingthat,ontheeveningof13Jan,theCBRCissuedCircularNo.4toBankofChina(3988.HK),HKD4.11Buyproposefurt
7、herstrengtheninginimplementation.Inourview,theCBRCinBankofCommunicationsBuy2018mightfocusmoreontherectificationofsuchincompliantassets,(3328.HK),HKD6.15especiallyrelatedtocorporategovernance,shadowbanking,fraudulentChinaMerchantsBankHold(3968.HK),HKD34.65marketingandco
8、rruption,etc.TogetherwithothertighterregulationsandChinaCITICBank(0998.HK),HKD5.45Holdhighermarketrates(note),weexpec
