德银-中国-石油天然气行业-德银中国数据库2018年会议纪要

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1、ChinaOil&GasDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina10January2018ChinaOil&GasEnergyOil&GasIndustryUpdateDBAccessChina2018conferencetakeaways-WoodMackenzieJohnsonWanWoodMackenzie(WM)attendedDB’sAccessChinaconferencein2018andResearchAnalystpresentedontheO&Gind

2、ustryfor2018.Thekeytakeawaysareasfollows:+852-22036163■Oilprice.WMholdsaconservativeviewontheoilpricewithBrentVitusLeungexpectedtoaverageUSD56/bblin2018andthatholdingaboveUSD60/ResearchAnalystbblwillbemoredifficultthanitseems.Inthenearterm,theoilpriceisin+852-22036158

3、equilibriumbutglobalsupplygrowthwilloutstripdemandgrowthfortherestof2018,mainlywithtightoilgrowing1.2mb/dandlargevolumesToppickscomingoutindeepwaterBrazil.Inaddition,UStightoilplayscannowCNOOCLtd(0883.HK),HKD12.00BuyconvincinglyhedgetheirpositionsatUSD62/bblWTI.Sino

4、pec(0386.HK),HKD6.23BuyChinaOilfieldServicesBuy■Capex.TotalupstreamspendshouldremainflatatUSD400bnonlymainly(2883.HK),HKD8.80becauseofahugedropinLNGspendparticularlyinAustralia.DeepwaterSEG(2386.HK),HKD7.66Buyandunconventionalwillfillthegapandisexpectedtogrow15%yoy.Sou

5、rce:DeutscheBank■Costcurve.Thepre-FIDdeepwatercost-curvebreakevenshavefallenfromUSD78/bblin3Q14toUSD64/bblin1Q17toUSD56/bblin3Q17.Thelowercostin1Q17ismainlyduetotheremovalofsomeexpensiveAngolaprojects.Onewillalsoseethatin2014,therewasonly5bBOEofcashflowpositivereserv

6、esversus20bnBOEin2017.■TightOil.Outputshouldrise24%and1.2mb/dto6.2mb/d.Rapidgrowthwillleadtochallengesandrisingcosts.Thekeytosuccessfortightoilisproductivity.A10%fallinproductiondestroys60%morevaluethana10%incostincrease.Questionscontinuetobeaskedaboutwhethertightoi

7、lcanbreakeven.ThevolumeofundrilledliquidresourceinthePermianhasincreasedwith13bBOEunderUSD60/bblWTIduring3Q17.■OFS.2018shouldstillbeatoughyearandthebusinessmodelforOFScompaniesneedstoadjusttoworkinaUSD50/bbloilenvironment.Thebenefitwillcomefromoperatorswhohavethebest

8、chancetolock-inrock-bottomOFScosts.■Resourcecapture.AsianNOCsneedtogetinvolvedwith15bofboeupforgrabs.28bboeofdiscoveredresourceisupforgrab