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1、ChinaOil&GasMonthlyDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina25January2018ChinaOil&GasEnergyOil&GasMonthlyIndustryUpdateNaturalgasimportsrecordednewhighandmarketingspreadsreboundedJohnsonWanE&P:newhighfornaturalgasimports;crudeself-sufficiencyat32%in2017ResearchAnalystC
2、hina'scrudeproductionandapparentdemandslowedinDecdespitethehigheroilprice,down5%yoyand6%yoy,respectively.Deccrudedemandwasalso+852-220361635%lowerthanthatofNovduetoa0.7%dropmomincrudethroughputandVitusLeungslowerinventorybuildsonoilpriceuplift(only0.4mmtvs.monthlyaverageofR
3、esearchAnalyst3.7mmtfor11M17).TeapotsinShandongimported8%moreofcrudeoilthan+852-22036158thatinNovtofullyutilizetheir2017importquota,butChina'stotalimportsstilldeclinedby7%mom.InDec,naturalgascontinuedtoregisterrobustdemandToppicksgrowthof13%yoy,albeitslowerthanthe27%and16%i
4、nOctandNov.DecSinopec(0386.HK),HKD6.53Buydomesticproductioncontinuedtobelacklustergrowingonly2%forthesecondCNOOCLtd(0883.HK),HKD12.14Buystraightmonthwithimportsmakingupforthedifference,growing32%yoy.WeChinaOilfieldServicesBuynotethatDec'snaturalgasimportsof10.6bcmwereanewmont
5、hlyhistorical(2883.HK),HKD9.22high,likelymetbymorespotLNG.ForFY17,China'sdemandforcrudeoilandSEG(2386.HK),HKD8.71Buynaturalgassurgedby5%/15%yoy,butmostaresatisfiedbyimports(+10%/+28%Source:DeutscheBankyoy)leadingtoalowerself-sufficiencyratioof32%/62%in2017vs.35%/66%in2016.Weva
6、lueoilmajorsbasedonDCFRefiningandMarketing:GRMremainedhighandmarketingspreadsreboundedforupstreamandP/Bvs.ROEforInDec,Chinacrudeprocessingvolumewasflatmombutgrew3%yoy.Compareddownstream.WevalueotherChinaoil&tothroughput,whichgrew8%yoyinNov,therewasmoremaintenanceandgascompani
7、esusingDCF/EVEBITDA/PB.extraproductioncutsforenvironmentalprotection.GRMretreatedby5%,orRisks:unexpectedchangesinoilpricesandproductionvolumesandpolicychanges.USD0.65/bblmom,toUSD12.28/bblinDec,butreboundedtoanevenhigherlevelinJanatUSD13.34/bblforthefirstthreeweeks.4Q17ended
8、withrefiningspreadsofUSD12.28/bbl,aseven-yearhigh,up18%yoy.Productionhaltswillberefl
