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1、ChinaOil&GasMonthlyDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina17October2017HongKongChinaOil&GasEnergyMonthlyIndustryUpdateOil&GasGasdemandexceptionallystrong;Sepethylenespreadsreach10yrhighJohnsonWanGlobaloil:signsofrebalancingonOPEC'ssupplyrestra
2、intandconcernsoverUSproductiongrowthResearchAnalystInSeptember,theBrentpricerose8%toUS$56.53/bblandtheBrentforward+852-22036163curvemovedintothesteepestbackwardationsince2014onsignsofmarketVitusLeungrebalancing.Thisshiftisprimarilyduetothefollowingfact
3、ors:1)AstrongsupplyresponsebyOPECanditsalliestoSaudi/Russia-ledcallsforproductioncuts.ResearchAnalystOPEC’sSeptemberoutputdecreased0.4mb/dyoyto32.7mb/d,withOPECand+852-22036158Russiaconsideringanextensionoftheoutputcutthrough2018.2)SignificantKeyChanges
4、changesintheUSoilproductionoutlook.DBexpectsUStightoiltogrowatCompanyTargetPriceRatingamoremodest0.7mb/din2018(trimmedby0.4kb/d)and0.3mb/din2019on0883.HK13.06to13.50-loweredestimatesforcurrentrigproductivity.3)TheIEAandEIAforecasta0857.HK5.47to5.55-bro
5、adlybalancedoilmarketin2018,whileOPECprojectsmodestundersupply0386.HK7.51to7.71-duetolowernon-OPECproduction.Inspiteofthesebullishforces,theIEA2883.HK8.57to8.64-forecastsaninventorybuildin1Q18,keepingalidonthepricerise.WehaveSource:DeutscheBankrevisedo
6、urestimatesforouroilcoveragenames(PTR,SNP,CNOOCandCOSL)ToppicksbasedonDB'scommoditiesquarterlypricerevisions.WebelievethatamongourCNOOCLtd(0883.HK),HKD10.10Buyoilnames,CNOOC(TPraisedtoHKD13.50,Buy)offersthebestdirectleveragetoSinopec(0386.HK),HKD5.84Buy
7、thispriceupsideandCOSL(TPraisedtoHKD8.64,Buy)wouldbenefitfromtheChinaOilfieldServicesBuyoilpricetriggeringincreasedspendingonE&Pactivities.Wehavealsoraisedour(2883.HK),HKD6.86TPsforSinopec(HKD7.71,Buy)andPetroChina(HKD5.55,Hold).SEG(2386.HK),HKD6.55BuySo
8、urce:DeutscheBankWevalueoilmajorsbasedonDCFChinaE&P:GasdemandexceptionallystrongandoilthroughputgrowthforupstreamandP/Bvs.ROEforaccelerateddownstream.WevalueotherChinaoil&ChinesecrudeoilthroughputwasrobustinAugust,up6%yoyandimprovedgasc
