德银-中国-石油与天然气行业-中国冬季天然气短缺局面再现

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1、ChinaOil&GasDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina15December2017HongKongChinaOil&GasEnergyIndustryUpdateOil&GasWintergasshortageresurfaces;+veforPetroChinaandChinaBlueChemJohnsonWanGasshortagespreadsacrossChinaResearchAnalystTheaggressive"coaltogas"(CT

2、G)conversionsinChinahavesignificantlyboostedgasdemand,particularlyinBeijingandthesurroundingarea;governmentsneed+852-22036163todivertgasfromotherprovinces,causingregionalgasshortages.TheFinancialVitusLeungTimesreportedonDec13thattheSichuanandChongqinggovernmentsa

3、skedResearchAnalystchemical-makerstoreduceorhaltproductionuntilMar2018.InNorthernChina,+852-22036158gassupplyforindustrialusagehasbeencutandlimited,inordertosatisfyresidentialusagefirst,whilesomeregionsdonothaveadequategassupplyforToppicksresidentialuseevenaftert

4、hecut.ThispusheduptheLNGpricetoanewhigh;PetroChina(0857.HK),HKD5.21HoldinDaqingandHeilongjiangeventhespottedLNGpricerecordedRMB9,000/tinChinaBlueChemical(3983.HK),HKD2.44BuyDec,almosttriplingfromSep.Thus,NDRC/NEAhassteppedintoregulatetheSource:DeutscheBankgaspri

5、ceandsupplyallocationforSOEsuppliers;however,weseethestronggasCompaniesfeaturedpricecontinuingduetothegasshortage.PetroChina(0857.HK),HKD5.21Hold2016A2017E2018ETightsituationtocontinuethroughwinterunlessthere'sachangeinstorageP/E(x)104.438.720.6China’sMinistryof

6、EnvironmentalProtectionissuedanurgentnoticelastweekEV/EBITDA(x)6.55.95.5thatthoseregionsamongthe"2+26"citiesthathavenotcompletedCTGPrice/book(x)0.80.70.7conversionscancontinuetousecoalandtheusualfuelsforheating.ThisChinaBlueChemical(3983.HK),HKD2.44Buywouldtempo

7、rarilycoolthegovernment'sambitiononCTGconversionintensity.2016A2017E2018EConversely,thegasstorageissuewillnotbesolvedinthenear-termandwouldP/E(x)–20.910.6intensifyeffortsingasstoragedevelopment.Themedium-termimplicationscouldEV/EBITDA(x)2.92.81.9be:1)increasingof

8、gassupply/productioncapability;2)capexongasstoragePrice/book(x)0.60.70.7development;3)potentialslowdowninCTGconversionambitions.Source:DeutscheBankPositiveforupstream