德银-英国-石油与天然气行业-从股息到回购

《德银-英国-石油与天然气行业-从股息到回购》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateUnitedKingdomEuropeanIntegrated15January2018Oil&GasOilForecastChangeLucasHerrmann,ACAFromscriptobuy-back.UpgradingResearchAnalyst(+44)20754-73636thedeck.lucas.herrmann@db.comAsthecashflowsbuildweexpectthebuybackstofeatureintoH218David

2、MirzaiFollowingupgradestoourpricedeckinthisnotewepresentrevisedestimatesResearchAnalystfortheEuroIOCsacrossthe2018-21periodtogetherwithamark-to-marketof(+44)20754-19002ourexpectationsforQ4'17.Withmostcompaniessettobalancecashcyclesatdavid.mirzai@db.comc$50/bbloilandlittle,ifany,

3、chanceinourviewofcostandcapexelevationouruseof$62/bbloilin2018(was$54.5/bbl)and2019($56/bbl)seesFCFKeyChangesexpandmeaningfullywithcashcoverofdividendsrisingtoover1.3xin2018fromunder1.1xpreviously.TacticallyanimpliedviewthatoilwillretracefromCompanyTargetPriceRating$69/bblspotar

4、guesforsomecaution.Fundamentally,however,aswemoveRDSb.L2,700.00to-2,800.00(GBP)fromscriptobuy-backanFCFYofarising7%suggestsvalueupside.BP.L545.00to-Upgradingthedeckto$62/bblin2018(was$54.5)and$65/bblLT(was$60)565.00(GBP)Setagainstanimprovedsupply-demandbalance,DeutscheBank’sSour

5、ce:DeutscheBankcommoditiesteamhasrevisedupwardsitsexpectationsforBrentoil.PricetargetchangesSignificantly,wemoveto$62/bblBrentinboth2018and2019(from$54.5/bbland$56/bblrespectively)whilstalsoraisingourlongtermforecastto$65/bblNewOldChangefrom$60/bbl.WeassumethatWTIwilltradeattowa

6、rdsa$6/bbldiscountBP(Buy)565p545p4%acrosstheforecastperiod.ENI(Hold)€15.5€14.56%A$10/bblmoveadds$15bntosectorCFFO.FCFYfor2018risesto7%.GALP(Hold)€16.0€15.72%AllowingforsomemodestoffsetfromchangedFXexpectationstherevisionsRepsol(Hold)l€15.5€14.755%toourcommoditydeckimpactforwarde

7、stimatesforcashflowmaterially.Shell(Buy)2800p2700p4%Withlittlelikelihoodinourviewofanupwardsshiftincapexguidanceandoperatingefficienciescontinuingtoemerge,thesector’s2018FCFYmovesStatoil(Hold)19016515%towards7%in2018(a15%uplift)and8%in2019.Cashcoverofthesector’sTotal(Buy)€52€512

8、%2018dividendrisesto1.3x(1.5x2019).Weexpectthis