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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateUnitedKingdomGlobalLNG16October2017Oil&GasExploration&ProductionIndustryUpdateLucasHerrmann,ACALookinglikeatightwinter.BasinResearchAnalyst(+44)20754-73636arbitrageopening.lucas.herrmann@db.comProjectdelaysamid
2、ststrongdemandsuggestQ4opportunityDavidMirzaiSetagainstabackclothofcontinuingstrongtenpercentplusLNGdemandResearchAnalystgrowththeannouncementoffurtherdelaystothestart-upofseveralnew(+44)20754-19002supplyschemeshasseenthepricedifferentialbetweentheAtlanti
3、candPacificdavid.mirzai@db.comBasinsopenupinrecentweeks.NodoubttheNorthernHemispherewinterwillhaveitssay.However,lookingatpricing,supplyanddemandgrowthtodayitToppicksishardnottosensethatthosewithflexiblevolumesinportfolio-notleastShell-aresetforahealthywi
4、nterseason.Pushfurtherinto2018andweRoyalDutchShellPlcBuy(RDSb.L),GBP2,330.00remainoftheviewthatLNGmarketsstillhavemuchtocontendwithalthoughRoyalDutchShellplcBuywecanbutacknowledgethatthedayofreckoningcontinuestobepushedout.(RDSa.L),GBP2,300.50Thecharttell
5、sastory–basindifferentialshavesharplywidenedSource:DeutscheBankInessencethechartsaysitall.Facedwithaseriesofdelaysinthestart-upofCompaniesFeaturednewsupply,notleastDominion’sCovePointandChevron’sWheatstone,thedifferentialbetweenthepriceof‘spot’LNGinPacifi
6、candAtlanticmarketshasRoyalDutchShellPlcBuystartedtoopenup.Havingtradedatbroadly$0.7/mmbtuformuchoftheyear,(RDSb.L),GBP2,330.00inessencethedeltainthecostofshippinggasfromonemarkettotheother,2016A2017E2018Erecentweekshaveseenthespreadbetweenthetwowidensuch
7、thatitP/E(x)27.717.014.8currentlystandsatover$2/mmbtu.Thesimplemessage?ItsOctober,theEV/EBITDA(x)41.875.384.37wintertradingseasonhashardlystartedbutLNGmarketsarealready‘snug’.DBEPS(USD)0.921.802.07RoyalDutchShellplcBuyFigure1:SpotLNGpricesinJapan,theUKand
8、thetradingpremium(2016/17)(RDSa.L),GBP2,300.502016A2017E2018E12.00Delta(RHS)UK(LHS)Japan(LHS)4.00P/E(x)27.016.814.7EV/EBITDA(x)39.885.284.293.5010.00DBEPS(USD)0.921.802.073.00Source:DeutscheBank8.00Shippingdifferent
