德银-全球-液化天然气市场-繁荣、萧条与再繁荣的循环

《德银-全球-液化天然气市场-繁荣、萧条与再繁荣的循环》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateUnitedKingdomGlobalLNG12January2018Oil&GasExploration&ProductionIndustryUpdateLucasHerrmann,ACABoom,bustandboomagainResearchAnalyst(+44)20754-73636lucas.herrmann@db.comTighttoday,stilllongtomorrowbutthebalancepointiscominginhardDavidMirzaiWritinginea

2、rlyOctoberwecommentedthatagainstabackclothofstrongResearchAnalyst10%plusLNGdemandgrowthbasinpricedifferentialswereblowingout.(+44)20754-19002Threemonthsonandmarketshaveproveneventighterthananticipated,thedavid.mirzai@db.comobviousimplicationbeingthatShellandtoalesserextentTotalshouldseegoodinco

3、meinQ4'17andQ1'18.LookingforwardourviewremainsthatnowToppicksemergingsupplywillpressurespotpricesthrough2020.YetwithEuropeangrowthhealthy,Chinaboomingandlimitedinvestmentdecisionssince2014RoyalDutchShellPlcBuy(RDSb.L),GBP2,594.50ouranalysissaystheperiodofexcessisrapidlyshorteningtherebyposition

4、ingTotalSA(TOTF.PA),EUR48.15Buythecontractpricecycleforupwardmomentum.Buyexposure.BuyShell.Source:DeutscheBankThechartspaintanearandlongtermpictureOk,wearetalkinggasmarkets.DemandisbothpricesensitiveanddifficulttoCompaniesFeaturedpredict.Butthechartspaintanobviousnearandlongertermpicture.GasRoy

5、alDutchShellPlcBuydemandhasbeenstrong,pricehasralliedstronglyandmediumtermmarket(RDSb.L),GBP2,594.50lengthiscomingin.Theconsequence?Apotentialneartermwindfallforthe2016A2017E2018EmajorLNGmarketers(readShellandtoalesserextentTotal)andamuchP/E(x)27.718.016.0betteroutlookforsupply/demandbalance.Al

6、ltold,aglobalgasmarketthatEV/EBITDA(x)41.876.025.79lookedatriskofoversupplypost2023nowlookspositionedfor2022deficit.DBEPS(USD)0.921.962.21Figure1:ThebasinarbhasbeenFigure2:Moreover,strongdemandTotalSA(TOTF.PA),EUR48.15Buy2016A2017E2018EstrongacrossallofQ42017hasseenLTlengthcollapseP/E(x)13.712.

7、412.512.00Delta(RHS)UK(LHS)Japan(LHS)4.50502016est2017EstEV/EBITDA(x)21.7112.818.424.004010.00DBEPS(EUR)3.103.883.853.50303.008.00Shippingdifferential(RHS)Source:DeutscheBank2.50206.002.00/mmbyu10$1.504.0001.00mmbtuBasinSpread$/TP