今年冬季中国天然气短缺会加剧？？-中国能源行业.docx

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1、ABGlobalResearch22October2018EquitiesChinaEnergyPeterGastreichAnalystpeter.gastreich@ubs.com+852-29716121KenLiuAnalystken.liu@ubs.com+852-29717516AmilyGuoAnalystS1460518050002amily.guo@ubssecurities.com+86-10-58328845SimonPowellAnalystsimon.powell@ubs.com+852-29717772AlexXuAnalystS1460517090001ale

2、x-a.xu@ubssecurities.com+86-213-8668841AbigailSunAnalystS1460518040002abigail.sun@ubssecurities.com+86-213-8668637ChinaIntegratedNaturalGasWillwintergasshortagesdeepenthisyear?Wintergasshortage,whileinevitable,shouldeaseversus2017WebelievewintergasshortagesinChinathisyearareunlikelytobeasextremean

3、dwidespreadaslastyear.Newpipelineinfrastructureandgasstoragecapacity,coupledwithincreasedgasimports,shouldhelptoguaranteeadditionalsupply.Meanwhile,highergaspricesshouldleadtomoreefficientconsumption.Still,higher-than-expecteddemand,acolder-than-usualwinter,orunexpectedpipelineoutagesarerisks.Weha

4、vemodestlyupgradedourlong-termgasdemandforecasts.Meanwhile,faster-than-expectedimportedLNGsupplygrowththisyear,coupledwithevidenceofprogressonLNGre-gasterminalFIDs,leadustoraiseourLNGimportforecastsby8-15%inthenextfiveyears.HighergaspriceshelptoensuremoresupplyTightsupplyofgas,higheralternativeoil

5、-basedfuelprices,andgreaterflexibilityallowedundertheNDRC'songoingnaturalgaspricereformdrivehaveallconspiredtoleadChina'snaturalgaspricesupmateriallyinthepast12-18months.WebelievegaspriceswillincreaseagainYoYthiswinterandbelieverealisedwintergaspricehikeswillcomeearlierthanmarketexpectations.Webel

6、ievewell-headgaspricescouldnearlydoubleinUSdollartermsfrom2017throughto2020peak.PetroChina(Buy)(aUBSKeyCall):gasexposurestilllooksunder-appreciatedWeremainbullishonPetrochina,alaggardstockrelativetotheChinaoilandgassector.Webelieveearlier-than-expectedwintergaspricehikescouldreflectwellonupstreamp

7、rofitability.Webelievethemarketispricingintoomuchriskongasimportlossesgiven:1)gaspricehikes;2)onlyonenewlycommittedLNGre-gasprojectatthecompanyinthenextfewyears;and3)potentiallyprofitableincrementalpipelineimport