德银-中国-能源行业-中国能源会议2018纪要

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1、AsiaPetrochemicalDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina10January2018AsiaPetrochemicalEnergyChemicalsMarketUpdateVitusLeungIHSMarkitVicePresidentMr.PaulPangattendedourAccessChina2018conference,andwelayoutthekeytakeawaysbelow:ResearchAnalyst+852-22036158BullishcrudeoilpriceviewI

2、HSMarkitforecastscrudeoilpricestorisefurthertoUS$80/bbl(in2016realJohnsonWanterms)overthelongterm(2025)onthebackofstrongdemandgrowthandaResearchAnalystconventionalproductiondeclinerateofc.2.5%p.a.,whichwouldrequirenew+852-22036163tranchesofsupply,pushingupoilprices.ToppicksHealthypetroc

3、hemicaldemandgrowthcontinuein2017-25SEG(2386.HK),HKD7.66BuyPetrochemicaldemandgloballywillcontinuetogrowaboveGDPwith1.2xSPC-H(0338.HK),HKD4.67Buyelasticityover2017-25,ofwhichmethanolandpropylenechainsleadtheway,Source:DeutscheBankwhilebenzeneandchlorinechainsareweakestamongcommoditychem

4、icalsCompaniesfeaturedproducts.SEG(2386.HK),HKD7.66Buy2016A2017E2018E2018marginsslightlydipfrom2017onolefinsmargincontractionTheagencyforecastsoverallpetrochemicalmarginstopullbackbyc.10%in2018P/E(x)15.114.38.6duetoolefins(mainlyethylene)spreadsdropswhilepartlyoffsetbyrobustnon-EV/EBITDA(x

5、)4.96.63.2olefinsmargins.IHSMarkitexpectsthemajorityofUSECCcapacitytocomePrice/book(x)1.01.11.0SPC-H(0338.HK),HKD4.67Buyon-streamin2018,leadingtoadeclinetrendinglobalcapacityadditionsforthe2016A2017E2018Emedium-termover2018-21.P/E(x)5.77.37.2EV/EBITDA(x)5.56.36.0Nextpetrochemicalcapexwav

6、eahead;ChinaopportunitiesGiventighteninginsupply-demand,IHSMarkitexpectscapitalinvestmenttoPrice/book(x)1.61.51.4Source:DeutscheBankreboundin2019.TheChinacapexwaveonpetrochemicalswillbedrivenbybothprivateandSOEs,whilestillseeingalackofforeigninvestment.Moreover,bothconventional(ie.napht

7、hacracker)andunconventionalchemicals(ie.CTO/CTP)shouldseeastrongspendingspreeahead,particularlyonunconventionalchemicalcapexwithstrongoilpriceexpectations.Stockimplications;SEG&SPC-HBuy-SEG(2386HK),asakeybeneficiaryofapetrochemicalcapexrecovery,andupsidepotentialinneworderexpect