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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChinaChinaGasUtilities17October2017UtilitiesRecommendationChangeHanyuZhangMichaelTong,CFASectorgrowthstorysustainable,ResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+852)22036207(+852)22036167upgradingCRGastoBuyhanyu.zhang@db.commichael.tong@
2、db.comUpgradingCRGas,alsopreferBEHLandENNKeyChangesSustainablevolumegrowth,manageablemarginrisksandimprovingfreecashCompanyTargetPriceRatingflowswillsupportthegassector’sgrowthstoryover2017-19.Lookinginto2688.HK60.10to-2018,valuationsarenotdemandingatanaverage12xP/E.Sp
3、ecifically,we65.50(HKD)nowupgradeCRGas,ahigh-qualitylaggard,toBuy,aswebelievethemarket0384.HK20.10to-underestimatesitscoal-to-gaspotential,isoverlyconcernedaboutmarginrisks23.80(HKD)andignoresitsbest-among-peersbalancesheetandFCFs.Atcurrent1083.HK6.40to6.60(HKD)-valuat
4、ions,wealsopreferBEHL(deeplydiscountedvalueplay)andENN(key1193.HK31.60toHoldtoBuycoal-to-gasbeneficiarywithcheapvaluation).35.40(HKD)0135.HK8.50to8.70(HKD)-Sustainablevolumegrowthstorysupportedbycoal-to-gasconversions0392.HK51.50to-Weestimateanadditional69bcm/yearvolum
5、eupsidefromcoal-to-gas53.80(HKD)conversionsby2020,contributingnearlyhalfofChina’stotalincrementalgas0003.HK11.60to-demand.Wenowexpecta15%gasvolumeCAGRin2017-20EinChina,12.00(HKD)achieving10%energymixby2020.Historically,thevolumegrowthofleadingSource:DeutscheBankgasplay
6、ersisusually5-10ppthigherthanthenationalaverageandweexpectthetrendtocontinue.BesidesENN(Hebeiandcoastalfocus)andChinaGasToppicks(NorthChinafocus),whichhavebeenrecognizedbythemarketaskeycoal-to-ENNEnergy(2688.HK),HKD57.80Buygasbeneficiaries,CRGasalsolookswell-positioned
7、withthelargestexposureCRGas(1193.HK),HKD28.55Buy(14projects)to2+26citiesandmorebigcityprojects,wheregovernmentsareBeijingEnterprises(0392.HK),HKD45.75Buymoreactiveandabletoaffordsubsidies.Source:DeutscheBankMarginrisksmanageable,wintergasshortageisadouble-edgedswordCom
8、paniesFeaturedInthisreport,wedivedeeperintogassalesmargintrendsbyanalyzingfourfactorsthatcouldaffectmargins.Overall,w
