j.p. 摩根-全球宏观经济数据解读-2017.10.6-jpmorgan-global data watch hey say will demand create its own supply

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1、Completed06Oct201708:30PMEDTDisseminated06Oct201708:34PMEDTEconomicResearchOctober6,2017GlobalDataWatchGlobalgrowthiscruisingandCPIinflationisreboundingfrom2QdipContentsWithdemandgrowthstrong,supplysideimprovementisneededThenextmoveinglobalinflationisup15ShiftingECBforecasttosharperi

2、nitialtaperheldforlongerDMcentralbanksinmotionasu-ratenears40-yearlow17Nextweek:BigdatainUS:retailsalesup2%andCPIup0.6%m/mAssessinghousingcorrectionriskacrossUScounties21Argentina:2018budget,adetourHeySay:Willdemandcreateitsownsupply?fromgradualism24Notwithstandingthemonthlyvolatilityi

3、nUSandChinadata,webelievetheJapan:Jobgrowthunlikelytohaltevenasagingadvances26globaleconomyclearlyissignalingthatitwillsustaingrowthclosetothe3.2%Diagnosingthehealthofrecordedoverthepastyear.MonetarystancesremainhighlyaccommodativeAustralianemployment28andpoliticaldevelopmentsaretilting

4、fiscalstancestowardmodeststimulus.Australia:RenewedrelevanceforMeanwhile,financialconditionsremainsupportiveanditishardtoidentifyananimalspiritsinhousing32additionalpost-financialcrisisreverberationlurkingintheshadows.ConsistentGlobalEconomicOutlookSummary4withthisview,ourall-industrygl

5、obalPMIheldsteadylastmonthatalevelGlobalCentralBankWatch6consistentwith3.2%globalGDPgrowth(Figure1).PerhapsmostencouragingNowcastofglobalgrowth7aresignsthatabroad-basedrecoveryinglobalcapitalspendingistakinghold.Selectedrecentresearchfrom9Thisweek’sreportsshowedUSandGermancapitalgoodssh

6、ipmentsbothupatJ.P.MorganEconomicsadouble-digitannualizedpaceinthethreemonthsthroughAugust.TheJ.P.MorganView:Markets10DataWatchesUnitedStates34The2QglobalCPIinflationdipalsoappearstobebehindus(seetheresearchEuroarea42note“Thenextmoveinglobalinflationisup”inthisGDW).FoodandenergyJapan46p

7、ricedeclineswereimportantcontributorstothisdip,aco-movementdownthatCanada50Mexico52isunusualalongsiderapidlygrowinggoodsdemand.TheenergypricedrophasBrazil54beenreversed—apointtobeunderscoredinnextweek’sUSSeptemberreport,Argentina56whichweexpecttopostasecondconsecutivelargeheadl