麦格理-印度-宏观策略-印度宏观策略：农村没有支出的支持--9页

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1、INDIAIndiaStrategyCentralgovernmentdeficittargetRuralpitchnotbackedbyspendingrevisedto3.3%ofGDPforFY19Conclusion4.0%3.7%3.5%3.2%3.3%India’smuchanticipatedbudgetturnedouttobeapoliticalspeechclubbed3.5%withastatementofaccounts.Themarketshouldberelievedthatthe3.0%2.5

2、%governmentisnotcompromisingmuchonitsfiscalstanceandtaxationon2.0%equitiesismuchmorebenignthanfeared.Thegovernment’sfiscalmaths1.5%appeartobelargelycredible.1.0%Keyhighlights0.5%0.0%Budgetgearedtowardspoliticalconstituency:RuralwaswritlargeontheFY17AFY18BEFY18REFY

3、19BEbudgetdocument,withthegovernmenttryingtoaddressissuesofruralSource:Indiabudget,MacquarieResearch,February2018distressandlowerjobcreation.However,atthesametimethegovernmenthasrefrainedfrombeingprofligate,asindicatedbya2%growthinoverallRuraldevelopmentgrowthbudge

4、tedforruraldevelopmentspend.ThegovernmentannouncedprocurementpricesFY19islow(onahighbaseforFY18)wouldbeat1.5xofproductioncost,butthisisalreadyinplaceforwintercropsandwouldnotaddmeaningfullytoagriincomesandhenceinflation.YoY%Nationalhealthcarecover,whichaimstoprovid

5、eRs0.5mncoverto100mn30%26%families,isanotherkeyinitiative,butbudgetarysupportofRs20bnistoolittle.25%19%Basedoncurrentinsurancerates,thegovernmentneedsRs2.5trnannually20%(obviously,itwouldnegotiatemuchbetterpricing).15%13%FiscaldeficitforFY19setat3.3%ofGDP,slightly

6、higherbutnot10%alarming:Thegovernmenthassetthefiscaldeficittargetat3.3%ofGDP,5%2%higherthanourexpectationof3.2%ofGDP.Thegovernmenthasindicateda0%newfiscaldeficitreductionroadmap,withthetargettoreducefiscaldeficittoFY17FY18BEFY18REFY19BE3%ofGDPnowpushedtoFY21.Howeve

7、r,webelievethemarketcanlivewiththis.Thegovernment’scommitmenttoslowbutsteadyconsolidationSource:Indiabudget,MacquarieResearch,February2018doesnotpushmonetarypolicyintoatightspot.Assuch,weexpecttheRBItoremainonalongpause.Thisshouldallaysomeoffearsinthebondmarkets.Ho

8、wever,weexpectyieldstoremainunderpressureduetoelevatedoilpricesandinflationtrajectorypeakingin1H18.Fiscalmathlookslargelycredible:Thebudgetmathl