麦格理-印度-宏观经济-印度经济政策：中立而非鹰派

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1、INDIAIndiaEconomicsTrendinpolicyratesRBIpolicy–NeutralnothawkishWtdAvgCallRateRepoRateReverseRepoMSFConclusion:TheRBIkeptpolicyratesonhold,asperexpectations.7.2%However,theRBImarginallyraisedtheinflationforecastsandloweredits6.8%GVAforecast,reflectingtheincomingdata.Wereadthepolicystatemen

2、tas6.4%neutral(nothawkish)withacautioustonehighlightingpotentialrisksto6.0%inflation–aswasexpected.WeexpecttheRBItobeonpausein2018asitbalancesbetweenanascentgrowthrecoveryandavolatileinflation5.6%trajectory.Inourview,thepotentialupsideriskstoinflationfromelevatedoil5.2%prices,thegovernment’

3、spolicyaroundMSPhikesandassociatedrisksonthet-16c-16pr-17n-17t-17c-17fiscalsidewillkeeptheMPConavigilantmodeinthecomingfuture.Whileeb-17ug-17eb-18OcDeFAJuAOcDeFwearenotyetpencillinginaratehikeinCY18,webelieveifinflationSource:CEIC,MacquarieResearch,February2018trajectoryremainshigherthanthe

4、RBI’sexpectationfor2HFY19and/orgrowthpickupisstrongerthananticipated,theRBIwillbeforcedtohikeratesinthelaterpartof2018.TrendinInflationDetails16%HeadlineCPIinflationYoY%RBIkeptpolicyratesonhold–inlinewithexpectations:TheRBIkept14%CoreCPIInflation(CPIex12%FoodexFuel)policyratesunchangedwith

5、thereporate(therateatwhichtheRBIinjects10%CPIFoodinflationliquidity)at6.0%inthepolicyreviewtoday.Accordingly,thereverserepoand8%marginalstandingfacility(MSF)ratestandunchangedat5.75%and6.25%,6%respectively.FivemembersoftheMPCvotedforstatusquowhileone4%2%member(Dr.Patra)votedfora25bpratehike

6、.Dr.Dholakiauntilnowwasin0%favourofaratecutbuthasvotedforaholdthistime.Theminutesofthe-2%MPC’smeetingwillbepublishedon21stFeb.c-12n-13c-13n-14c-14n-15c-15n-16c-16n-17c-17RBIraisedinflationprojectionsandlowereditsgrowthestimateforDeJuDeJuDeJuDeJuDeJuDeFY18,whileitexpectsinflationandgrowthto

7、pickupinFY19:TheRBISource:CEIC,MacquarieResearch,February2018nowexpectsinflationat5.1%inQ4FY18(vs.4.3-4.7%earlierfor2HFY18)takingintoaccounttherecentriseinfoodandfuelprices.Onthegrowthfront,theRBIloweredtheGVAprojectionto6.6%forFY18(6.7%earlier).ForHouse