麦格理-印度-宏观经济-印度经济：psu银行如何影响增长前景？

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1、INDIAIndiaEconomicsFY19growthcanimprovewithfasterHowdoesthePSUbankrecapimpactcapexgrowth9%thegrowthoutlook?Bottomline:PSUbankrecapbyitselfmaynotleadtoanimmediate5%improvementingrowth;however,itwillbeanenablertokick-startthecapexcycle.Thegovernment’sfocusoninfrastructureinvestmen

2、tisanotherpositive1%andcouldfillthelacunaduetoweak/delayedprivatecapexspending.-3%DiscrepanciesGrowthhasbeenweak,notjustbecauseoftransitoryfactors:GDPNetExportsGrossCapitalFormationgrowthhaswitnessedaslowdownoverthelastfivequarters,whichcanbeFinalConsumptionExpenditure-7%GDPatm

3、pattributedtotheweaktrendincapexandexports,twoimportantenginesofF2016F2017F2018EF2019Egrowth.Indeed,consumptionhasbeenthemainstayofgrowth,whichhasSource:CEIC,MacquarieResearch,October2017beensupportedbygenerousgovernmentspending.Whileapartoftherecentslowdowncanbeattributedtothed

4、isruptionscausedbythedemonetizationandimplementationofGST,inourview,theslowdownreflectstheunevenUpsideriskstoFY19growthgrowthdrivenonlybyconsumption,asotherdriversfailedtotakeoffintheinterim.RealGDPGrowth,YoY%8.5%BasePrivatecapexhasbeenhasbeenonaweaktrend…:Themoreoftenthan8.0%B

5、ull8.0%7.6%notcitedargumentbyeconomistshasbeenthataweaktrendinprivatecapex7.5%Bear7.5%7.1%7.0%7.1%7.2%isconstrainingabroad-basedgrowthrecovery.Indeed,itistruethataweak6.5%6.7%trendininvestmentsthataccountsforroughly30%ofGDP(posttherecent6.4%6.8%decline)doesnotbodewellforgrowthpr

6、ospects.Thefactorsconstraining6.0%6.3%5.5%5.5%privatecapexareallwellknown–low-capacityutilizationandstressed5.0%corporateandbankingsectorbalancesheets.20132014201520162017….recapofPSUbanksprovidesamuch-neededsupport…:GiventhatFFFFF2018E2019EFFstressedassetsatPSUbanks(whichaccou

7、ntfor~70%ofthesystem)haveSource:CEIC,MacquarieResearch,October2017beenanimportantfactorconstrainingPSUbanks’creditgrowth,thegovernment’sPSUbankrecapplanaddressesanimportantsupply-sideissueandimprovestheoutlookforprivatecapexrecovery.…however,challengesstillremainonthedemandside

8、/lowcapacityutilization:Asynchronousrecoveryind