麦格理-印度-宏观经济-印度经济：宏观数据全面增长，经济复苏步伐加快

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1、INDIAIndiaEconomicsKeydatareleases(Dec-17vsNov-17)Macrodataround-up–GrowthrecoverygatheringpaceInthismonthlypublicationweendeavourtoprovideaone-stopshopforallkeymacrodatareleasesinthemonth,alongwithachartpackofkeymacroindicatorstotrack.Growthindicators:CyclicalrecoveryindomesticdemandDomestic

2、demandindicators:HighfrequencydomesticdemandindicatorshaveshownasustainedimprovementinNov/DecsuggestingthatgrowthrecoveryisgainingmomentumposttheGSTrelateddisruption.Source:CEIC,GoI,MacquarieResearch,January2018IPgrowthforNovcameinatatwo-yearhigh,ledbyapickupin*IPcurrentmonthisNov-17andprevio

3、usisOct-17^RabisowingcurrentisforweekofJan12th,previousismanufacturing.weekofJan5th#CADcurrentisforQESep-17,previousisQEJun-17PMI(manufacturing)forDecrosetoa5-yearhighAutosalesremainedrobust-twowheelersrosetothehighestsinceOct-2010,MHCVsalesrosetothehighestsinceJun-2010Cementproductionroset

4、othehighestsinceNov-2010.Externaldemandremainshealthy:Exportgrowthnormalisedto12.4%YoYinDecfrom30.5%YoYinNov.ExportgrowthinthelastfewmonthshasbeenbumpymainlyduetotheGST-relatedoperationaldisruptions.Onafull-yearbasisexportsgrewby13.5%in2017vs.adeclineof1.1%in2016.Macrostability:Wideningatthem

5、argin,butinamanageablerangeCPI:DecCPIacceleratedtoa17-monthhighof5.2%inDec(largelyinlinewithexpectations)withbothfoodandcoresegmentsincreasing.WPI:DecemberWPIinflationdeceleratedto3.6%from3.9%inNovember,lowerthanexpectations.Thedecelerationininflationwasledbylowerfoodinflation,whilenon-foodi

6、nflationremainedsteady.Tradedeficit:ThetradedeficitroseinDectoUS$14.9bn(9%ofGDPannualised)comparedtoUS$13.8bn(8.4%ofGDPannualised)inNovasimportsrosefasterthanexports.OutlookGradualrecoverykeepingmacrostabilityincheck:Weexpectthegrowthrecoverytograduallygatherpace,andweexpectGDPgrowthat7.2%inF

7、Y19efrom6.7%inFY18e.Weexpectconsumption,publiccapexandexportstobethemaindriversevenasprivatecapexremainsinrepairmode.InflationisexpectedtoedgehigheruntilJun-18(~4.7-5.5%)partlyduetoalowbase.WeexpecttheRBItotakeintotheaccounttheidiosyncr