麦格理-印度-宏观经济-印度经济宏观数据综述：渐进式增长恢复；宏观面稳定

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1、INDIAIndiaEconomicsKeydatareleases(Nov-17vsOct-17)Macrodataroundup–Gradualgrowthrecovery;macrostabilityincheckInthismonthlypublicationweendeavourtoprovideaonestopshopforallkeymacrodatareleasesinthemonth,alongwithachartpackofkeymacroindicatorstotrack.Growthindicators:Exter

2、naldemandgatheringmomentumIndustrialproduction:IPgrowthslowedinOctoberpartlyonaccountoffestival-relatedholidays.Themonthlydatatendstobevolatile,andthereforeweprefertolookatthethreemonthtrailingtrend,whichhasbeenonanSource:CEIC,GoI,MacquarieResearch,December2017improvingp

3、athoverthelast3months.*IPcurrentmonthisOct-17andpreviousisSep-17Exportgrowth:Exportgrowthacceleratedto30.5%YoYinNov-17aftera^RabisowingcurrentisforweekofDec15th,previousiscontractionlastmonth.Whilehighercommoditypriceshavehelped,non-weekofDec8thcommodityexportgrowthroset

4、othehighestin7months.#CADcurrentisforQESep-17m,previousisQEJun-17Non-oilnon-goldimports:Non-oilnon-goldimportgrowth(asaproxyfordomesticdemand)acceleratedtoa6monthhighof22.6%inNov-17,withcapitalgoodsimportsturningpositiveafter2monthsofcontraction.Rabisowingarea:Areaunder

5、cultivationforwintercrop(Rabi)pickeduppace,growingby1%YoYforweekendedDec15th.Areaundercultivationforwheat,whichismaintheRabicrop,sawadeclineof2%YoY,whileareaunderpulsesroseby9%.Macrostability:Pricestabilityworsenedatthemargin,externalstabilitymaintainedCPI:NovemberCPIinf

6、lationacceleratedtoa15-monthhighof4.88%YoY.Inflationwasexpectedtoedgehigheronthebackofvegetablepricespike,howevertheupsidesurprisewasdrivenbyafastermomentumincoreinflation,whichroseto5%inNov.WPI:NovemberWPIinflationacceleratedtoa7-monthhighof3.9%YoYvs.3.6%inOct.Therisewa

7、sdrivenbyhigherfoodinflation(drivenbyvegetables/eggs).Inflationinthenon-foodnon-fuelsegmentalsorose.Tradedeficit:TradedeficitwaslargelysteadyatUS$13.8bn(8.4%ofGDPannualised)inNovvs.US$14bn(8.6%ofGDPannualised)inOct.Currentaccountdeficit:CurrentaccountdeficitnarrowedtoUS

8、$7.2bninQESep-17(1.2%ofGDP)fromUS$15bn(2.5%ofGDP)inQEJun,helpedbyalowertradedeficitandhigherserv