麦格理-印度-宏观经济-宏观数据全面增长——内需保持健康

《麦格理-印度-宏观经济-宏观数据全面增长——内需保持健康》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、INDIAIndiaEconomicsKeydatareleases(Jan-18vsDec-17)Macrodataround-up–domesticdemandremainshealthyInthismonthlypublicationweendeavourtoprovideaone-stopshopforallkeymacrodatareleasesinthemonth,alongwithachartpackofkeymacroindicatorstotrack.Growthindicators:Cyclicalrecoveryindomest

2、icdemandDomesticdemandindicatorsfaredbetterthanexternaldemand:Highfrequencydomesticdemandindicatorscontinuetoshowhealthygrowthinthelastthreemonthssuggestingthatgrowthrecoveryisgatheringmomentum.Source:CEIC,GoI,MacquarieResearch,February2018Consumptionindicatorssuchascarsales,

3、petrolconsumption,retailloan*IPcurrentmonthisDec-17andpreviousisNov-17growthandairpassengertrafficacceleratedinJan#CADcurrentisforQESep-17,previousisQEJun-17Manufacturingindicatorsremainedrobust–IPgrowthforDecwasaboveexpectations.PMImanufacturingforJanremainedabove50forthesixt

4、hconsecutivemonths,butitmoderatedfromthefive-yearhighreachedinDec.Cementproductiongrowthremainedindoubledigitsforthesecondconsecutivemonth.LightcommercialvehiclesalesgrowthacceleratedtothehighestsinceMar-2010.Servicesindicatorstooimproved–PMIservicesexpandedinJan,whileotherind

5、icatorssuchasrailandseaportcargocontinuedtoimprove.ExportgrowthslowsinJan:ExportgrowthslippedtosingledigitsinJan,growingby9.1%YoY(vs.12.5%YoYinDec).Lacklustrenon-commodityexportgrowthmainlycausedtheslowdowningrowth–withsegmentssuchasgems&jewellery,textiles,electronicgoodscont

6、ributingtotheslowdown.Macrostability:WideningatthemarginTradedeficitwidenstoa56-monthhigh:ThetradedeficitwidenedtoUS$16.3bn(8.1%ofGDPannualised)inJanfromUS$14.8bn(7.4%ofGDPannualised)inDecasimportsrosefasterthanexports.ThehigherthanexpectedtradedeficitinJanputsupwardpressureon

7、thecurrentaccountdeficitforFY18–weexpecttheCADtowidento1.8-2%ofGDPvs.ourearlierestimateof1.6%ofGDPinFY18.InflationmoderatedinJan,butCPIstillabovethe5%mark:JanCPImoderatedto5.1%(5.2%inDec)withfoodpricesdecelerating.JanWPIinflationdeceleratedto2.8%from3.6%inDec,withbothfoodandno

8、n-foodsegmentsmoderating.OutlookGradualrecoverykeepin