欢迎来到天天文库
浏览记录
ID:8227559
大小:535.45 KB
页数:8页
时间:2018-03-11
《麦格理-印度-宏观经济-印度经济:聚集国家大选》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、INDIAIndiaEconomicsStateElectionCalendarStateelectionstobeinfocusConclusionPoliticalcommentarytotakecentrestagewiththeupcomingstateelectionsinGujaratandHimachalPradesh:Sincethegovernment’stwobigpolicydecisionsofdemonetizationandimplementationofGST,electoralr
2、esultsarebeinglookedattoassesstheacceptabilityofthemeasures.BJP’svictoryinUttarPradeshwasseenasavirtualreferendumonthedemonetizationdecision.Inthiscontext,theupcomingstateelections,GujaratandHimachalPradeshinNov/Dec2017,couldbeconstruedasaverdictontherecently
3、implementedGoods&ServiceTax.Source:ElectionCommission,MacquarieResearch,October2017ConclusionGujaratelectionsmoreimportantfrommarket’spointofview:TherulingBJPgovernmenthasbeeninpowersince1995inGujaratandisPMModi’shomestate,implyingtherewillbegreaterinteresti
4、ntheparty’sperformanceinthestateelections.GujaratelectionstoprobablyseemorecommentaryaroundGST/demonetization:Amongstthetwostates,Gujarathasalargerpresenceofsmall-scalebusinesses/traderswhichanecdotallyhavebeenimpactedadverselybybothdemonetizationandimplemen
5、tationofGST,againincreasingthestateelection’simportance.Votesharetrendsappearfavourablefortherulingparty:BJP’svoteshareinGujarathasremainedsteady(havingdeclinedbyonly1.5%since2002)andthestrongperformanceinsomeofthekeystate/locallevelelectionspost2014generale
6、lectionscreatesafavourableoutlookfortherulingparty.RecentopinionpollfavoursBJP:Indeed,therecentlyreleasedopinionpollbyIndiaTodaygroupindicatesthatBJP’svotesharewilllikelyremainsteadyandthepartyisexpectedtowin110-125seats(vs.115seatswonin2012outoftotal182seat
7、s).ThepollalsosuggeststhatBJPwilllikelygainmajorityinHimachalPradeshwinning43-47seats(ofatotal68seats).Strengthofelectionvictorywillbeassessed:GivenGujaratisaBJPstronghold,marketsmaylookatthestrengthofthevictorytogaugethepoliticalmoodinthecountry.Inourview,t
8、hestrengthofthevictorycouldswaythenarrativeonGSTandtiltofgovernmentpolicies.PossibilityoffavourablestateelectionoutcomealongwiththemegaPSUbankrecapplanmayfurtherkeepmarketsentimentsuppor
此文档下载收益归作者所有