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1、INDIAIndiaEconomicsSlowrecoveryingrowthDelayedgrowthrecovery9%7.5%8.0%GrowthexpectedtoslowinFY188%7.1%7.2%6.7%7%6.4%5.5%WeexpectGDPgrowthtodecelerateto6.7%inFY18from7.1%inFY17.While6%5%weexpectthequarterlygrowthratetoimprovefromthelowof1QFY18asthe4%economy
2、recoversfromlingeringimpactofdemonetizationandtransitory3%2%disruptioncausedbyimplementationofGST,wedonotexpectittobestrong1%enoughtopullupthefullyeargrowth.0%WeakrecoveryinFY19duetolackofstrongdrivers20132014201520162017FFFFF2018E2019EFFWeexpectamildrecov
3、eryingrowthto7.2%inFY19mainlyduetoabsenceofSource:CEIC,MacquarieResearch,September2017furtherlegstotheconsumptionstoryandstillweakprivatecapexoutlook.Untilnow,thekeysupporttoconsumptionhasbeenpaycommissionawardstoInflationtotracknear4%governmentemployees,l
4、owerinflationandborrowingcosts.WithfiscalspendingCPICoreCPIRBI'sglidepathexpectedtotaperoffinthecomingquarters,consumptiongrowthstandson12%fragileground.Goingforward,tailwindsoflowerinflation,lowerinterestratesandForecasts10%arevivalinruraldemandwillhelp;h
5、owever,wedonotexpectfurtherlegstothe8%8%consumptionrecoveryintheabsenceofafull-fledgedcapexcycleandweakjob6%6%5%creation.Indeed,thesustenanceofconsumptionrecoverywillincreasethe4%urgencyofarevivalincapexcycletocreatethevirtuouscycleofjobcreation4%2%andinco
6、megrowth.0%Whatcanleadtoahigheraccelerationingrowth?ar-12ep-12ar-13ep-13ar-14ep-14ar-15ep-15ar-16ep-16ar-17ep-17ar-18ep-18ar-19MSMSMSMSMSMSMSMInourview,thekeytoabettergrowthoutcomeinFY19hingesonthepaceofSource:CEIC,MacquarieResearch,September2017privatecap
7、exrevival.Forafull-fledgedcapexcycletomaterialise,wewouldneedtoseeasharpimprovementindemandand/oraswiftresolutionofExpect25bpmoreeasingstressedassetsalongwithaconcreteplantorecapitalisePSUbanks.IfpolicyRepomakersmovemorequickly(vs.ourbasecaseassumption)toa
8、ddressthetwin10%RealRepoRate(onCPI),RS6%balancesheetissues,thecontoursofgrowthdynamicswillchangepositively.9%4%8%2%Inflationexpectedtoremainnearthe4%mark7%0%Weexpectinflationtoremainmoderateandrangeboundinthe
