那提西-美股-宏观经济-货币政策：需要重新思考

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1、FlashEconomicsMonetarypolicy:Afundamentalrethinkingisneeded24January2018-97TheFederalReserveandtheECBhaveconductedanunconventionalhighlyexpansionarymonetarypolicy(quantitativeeasing)overalongperiodoftime.Bothcentralbanksarenowwindingdownthispolicyundertheassumptionthatinflationwillreturntowardst

2、hetargetlevel,butarestillmaintaininganexpansionarymonetarypolicystancewithlowinterestrates.Onemayregretthatthesechoices(unconventionalmonetarypolicyoveralongperiodoftime,persistencewithinflationtargets)havebeenmadewithoutafundamentalrethinkingofmonetarypolicyobjectives:Isitdesirableforunconvent

3、ionalmonetarypoliciestogiveriseoverlongperiodsoftimetodistortionsinfinancialmarkets:abnormallylowlong-terminterestrates,squeezingofriskpremia,excessivegrowthinthepricesofmanyfinancialandrealestateassets?Shouldtheseunconventionalmonetarypoliciesnotbeconductedmerelyovershortperiodsoftimeduringseve

4、recrises?Thecentralbankwouldthenplaytheroleof“lenderoflastresort”,butwouldnotmaintainamonetarypolicythatcreatesdistortionsoveralongperiodoftime;Itwasonlyintheearly1980sthatcentralbanksmovedtoinflationtargetinginresponsetothehighinflationthatcameinthewakeoftheoilshocksatthetime.Thetheoreticalmod

5、elofcredibilityunderpinnedthismovetoinflationtargeting:economicagentsmustexpectthatthecentralbankwillnotletinflationescalate,andthatitwillnotuseinflationasameanstoreduceunemploymentintheshortterm.Butdoesthischoiceofcentralbankbehaviourstillmakesensetoday,wheninflationisnotreturningevenatfullempl

6、oyment?Werecentralbanksnotgiventhisinflationobjectiveinresponsetothecyclicalsituationoftheearly1980s,whileotherobjectivesaremoreimportant?Perhapscentralbanksshouldreturntotheircore,historicalroleofprovidingtheeconomywithanappropriatequantityofliquidity,neithertoomuch(topreventoverborrowingandbu

7、bbles)nortoolittle(topreventabnormallyhighrealinterestratesandtheriskofdeflation).Unfortunately,thisroleforcentralbanksnowseemstohavebeenforgotten,oritcannolongerbeperformedbecausecentralbanksareforcedtopursueanotherobjectiv