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ID:8227387
大小:979.04 KB
页数:8页
时间:2018-03-11
《那提西-美股-宏观经济-货币政策:需要重新思考》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、FlashEconomicsMonetarypolicy:Afundamentalrethinkingisneeded24January2018-97TheFederalReserveandtheECBhaveconductedanunconventionalhighlyexpansionarymonetarypolicy(quantitativeeasing)overalongperiodoftime.Bothcentralbanksarenowwindingdownthispolicyundertheassumptionthatinflationwillreturntowardst
2、hetargetlevel,butarestillmaintaininganexpansionarymonetarypolicystancewithlowinterestrates.Onemayregretthatthesechoices(unconventionalmonetarypolicyoveralongperiodoftime,persistencewithinflationtargets)havebeenmadewithoutafundamentalrethinkingofmonetarypolicyobjectives:Isitdesirableforunconvent
3、ionalmonetarypoliciestogiveriseoverlongperiodsoftimetodistortionsinfinancialmarkets:abnormallylowlong-terminterestrates,squeezingofriskpremia,excessivegrowthinthepricesofmanyfinancialandrealestateassets?Shouldtheseunconventionalmonetarypoliciesnotbeconductedmerelyovershortperiodsoftimeduringseve
4、recrises?Thecentralbankwouldthenplaytheroleof“lenderoflastresort”,butwouldnotmaintainamonetarypolicythatcreatesdistortionsoveralongperiodoftime;Itwasonlyintheearly1980sthatcentralbanksmovedtoinflationtargetinginresponsetothehighinflationthatcameinthewakeoftheoilshocksatthetime.Thetheoreticalmod
5、elofcredibilityunderpinnedthismovetoinflationtargeting:economicagentsmustexpectthatthecentralbankwillnotletinflationescalate,andthatitwillnotuseinflationasameanstoreduceunemploymentintheshortterm.Butdoesthischoiceofcentralbankbehaviourstillmakesensetoday,wheninflationisnotreturningevenatfullempl
6、oyment?Werecentralbanksnotgiventhisinflationobjectiveinresponsetothecyclicalsituationoftheearly1980s,whileotherobjectivesaremoreimportant?Perhapscentralbanksshouldreturntotheircore,historicalroleofprovidingtheeconomywithanappropriatequantityofliquidity,neithertoomuch(topreventoverborrowingandbu
7、bbles)nortoolittle(topreventabnormallyhighrealinterestratesandtheriskofdeflation).Unfortunately,thisroleforcentralbanksnowseemstohavebeenforgotten,oritcannolongerbeperformedbecausecentralbanksareforcedtopursueanotherobjectiv
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