j.p.摩根-全球数据观察-强劲而明显的增长; 低迷和令人费解的通货膨-2017.7.14-84页

《j.p.摩根-全球数据观察-强劲而明显的增长; 低迷和令人费解的通货膨-2017.7.14-84页》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、Completed14Jul201708:22PMEDTDisseminated14Jul201708:26PMEDTEconomicResearchJuly14,2017GlobalDataWatchThedrumbeatofupbeatglobalgrowthindicatorscontinuesContentsUScoreinflationcontinuestodisappointandishardtoexplainMacronandbeyond:TheEU'sreformagenda13Chinatradesends

2、apositivemessageondomesticandglobaldemandBoJ:KurodaornotmatterswhenNextweek:Chinadata;ECBtapertalk;BoJinflationforecastdowncriticspersist152018Brazilelection:Openingremarks17Strongandcleargrowth;lowandpuzzlinginflationLiquidityindicatorsofChina'sIfour2Qforecastsareri

3、ght,theglobaleconomyhasjustcompletedayearoffinancialtightening223.2%GDPgrowth,equalingitsbestperformanceoverthepastsixyears.Im-GlobalEconomicOutlookSummary4portantly,thedynamicsbehindthepastyear’spickupvalidatesourviewthatGlobalCentralBankWatch6fadingdisinflationarydr

4、agsaredeliveringmorebalancedincomegrowthNowcastofglobalgrowth7acrosssectorsandregions.AsEMdemandandcommodityindustrydragsSelectedrecentresearchfromabate,globalprofitshavebouncedoutoftwoyearsofdecline.Business8J.P.MorganEconomicsspendingisrevivingandhiringhaspickedupas

5、well,withglobalemploy-TheJ.P.MorganView:Markets9mentgainsnowrunningasstrongasanytimesincethe1990s.AstailrisksDataWatchesassociatedwithimbalancesdecline,globalriskappetiteisontherise.TheseUnitedStates25developmentstemperthedragonconsumptionassociatedwiththepastyear’sEu

6、roarea31inflationrise.Infact,globalconsumptiongainshaveexceededourexpecta-Japan35tionsbyacceleratingmodestlyoverthepastyear.Canada39Mexico41Brazil43WeforecastthatthisliftingphaseisoverandanticipatetheglobaleconomytoArgentina45settleatamodestlyabove-trendpaceinthecomin

7、gquarters.However,withChileandPeru471H17outcomesexceedingourexpectations,ourbottom-upforecastnowin-UnitedKingdom49corporatesa2H17downshift(Figure1).ForglobalGDP,the2.8%pacepro-EmergingEurope51jectedforthecomingquarterswouldrepresentamodestdeceleration.ASouthAfrica&SSA

8、56sharperslowingisexpectedintwokeyrecentsupportsforglobaldemand.MENA58EMEAEMfocus60AustraliaandNewZealand61DMcapitalspendin