j.p. 摩根-全球-股票策略-通胀和工资增长不应被视为对股市的明显负面影响

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1、Completed19Feb201801:11AMGMTDisseminated19Feb201803:00AMGMTGlobalEquityStrategy19February2018EquityStrategyThepickupininflationandwagegrowthshouldnotbeseenasaclearnegativeforequitiesWearguedlastMondaythatthecorrectionshouldnotbecomesustainednorbeEquityStrategyseenasfundamental,andadvisedtousethe

2、dipasanopportunitytoadd.WeACMislavMatejka,CFAstillbelievethatthecorrelationbetweenbondandequitypricesremainsfirmly(44-20)7134-9741inverse,i.e.thatequitieswilltoleratehigheryields.Thisisconsistentwithmislav.matejka@jpmorgan.comequitiesbouncinglastweekdespitebondyieldsmakingclearnewhighs.J.P.Morgan

3、SecuritiesplcFinancialsremainanOWinthatscenarioandDefensivesanUW.ACEmmanuelCau,CFAThekeyquestioninourviewishowshouldoneinterpretapotentialpickupin(44-20)7134-9742inflation.Manyareconcernedthatrisingwageswillpressurecorporateprofitemmanuel.b.cau@jpmorgan.commarginsandamoveupininflationwoulddrived

4、iscountrateshigher,thereforeJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcendingupasanunambiguousnegativeforvaluations,forearningsandforthePrabhavBhadani,CFAsustainabilityoftheupcycle.Wedon’tseeitthisway:(44-20)7742-44041)Inflationisprimarilyalaggingindicatorofgrowth–seetopchart–andprabhav.bhadani@jpmorgan.comshouldno

5、tcomeasasurprisegiventhatJPMexpects80%ofthecountriesitJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplctrackstogrowabovetrendthisyear.SignsofamoveupininflationareNityaSaldanhabuilding,butitisimportanttonotethattheactualinflationratesarestill(91-22)6157-3324subduedinthehistoricalcontext.ThelatestUScoreCPIprintof1.8%yoynity

6、a.saldanha@jpmorgan.comisstillbelowlast20-yearaverageand,infact,asmuchas50bpbelowwhatJ.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimitedwasalreadyseenafewtimesinthecurrentupcycle.Themoveupininflationisjusta2)Wenotethatcorporateprofitmarginsaremostsensitivetothevolumeresultofrobustgrowthupturn;theoutlookthroughoperati

7、ngleverage,andnottowages.Cyclicalsandthepickupinwagesmakestheupcyclemoresustainablebroaderequitymarketdonottendtofallwhencostsstarttoshootup,asthese2.8%increasedcostpressuresaretypicallyasignofahealthyeconomicbackdrop.