全球数据观察-强劲而明显的增长; 低迷和令人费解的通货膨-2017.7.14-84页

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1、Completed14Jul201708:22PMEDTDisseminated14Jul201708:26PMEDTEconomicResearchJuly14,2017GlobalDataWatchThedrumbeatofupbeatglobalgrowthindicatorscontinuesContentsUScoreinflationcontinuestodisappointandishardtoexplainMacronandbeyond:TheEU'sreformagenda13Chinatradesendsap

2、ositivemessageondomesticandglobaldemandBoJ:KurodaornotmatterswhenNextweek:Chinadata;ECBtapertalk;BoJinflationforecastdowncriticspersist152018Brazilelection:Openingremarks17Strongandcleargrowth;lowandpuzzlinginflationLiquidityindicatorsofChina'sIfour2Qforecastsareright,

3、theglobaleconomyhasjustcompletedayearoffinancialtightening223.2%GDPgrowth,equalingitsbestperformanceoverthepastsixyears.Im-GlobalEconomicOutlookSummary4portantly,thedynamicsbehindthepastyear’spickupvalidatesourviewthatGlobalCentralBankWatch6fadingdisinflationarydragsare

4、deliveringmorebalancedincomegrowthNowcastofglobalgrowth7acrosssectorsandregions.AsEMdemandandcommodityindustrydragsSelectedrecentresearchfromabate,globalprofitshavebouncedoutoftwoyearsofdecline.Business8J.P.MorganEconomicsspendingisrevivingandhiringhaspickedupaswell,wit

5、hglobalemploy-TheJ.P.MorganView:Markets9mentgainsnowrunningasstrongasanytimesincethe1990s.AstailrisksDataWatchesassociatedwithimbalancesdecline,globalriskappetiteisontherise.TheseUnitedStates25developmentstemperthedragonconsumptionassociatedwiththepastyear’sEuroarea31in

6、flationrise.Infact,globalconsumptiongainshaveexceededourexpecta-Japan35tionsbyacceleratingmodestlyoverthepastyear.Canada39Mexico41Brazil43WeforecastthatthisliftingphaseisoverandanticipatetheglobaleconomytoArgentina45settleatamodestlyabove-trendpaceinthecomingquarters.Ho

7、wever,withChileandPeru471H17outcomesexceedingourexpectations,ourbottom-upforecastnowin-UnitedKingdom49corporatesa2H17downshift(Figure1).ForglobalGDP,the2.8%pacepro-EmergingEurope51jectedforthecomingquarterswouldrepresentamodestdeceleration.ASouthAfrica&SSA56sharperslowi

8、ngisexpectedintwokeyrecentsupportsforglobaldemand.MENA58EMEAEMfocus60AustraliaandNewZealand61DMcapitalspendin