j.p. 摩根-亚太地区-存储器行业-全球存储器市场：预期2018年强势增长以及随后2019年的预期低迷

《j.p. 摩根-亚太地区-存储器行业-全球存储器市场：预期2018年强势增长以及随后2019年的预期低迷》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、Completed20Feb201802:53AMHKTDisseminated20Feb201802:54AMHKTAsiaPacificEquityResearch20February2018CorrectedNote(Seepage25fordetails)ClientsshouldcontactrepresentativesandexecutetransactionsthroughaJ.P.Morgansubsidiaryoraffiliateintheirhomejurisdictionunlessgoverni

2、nglawpermitsotherwise.GlobalMemoryMarketAnotherstrongmarketin2018Efollowedbyadownturnin2019E;salesandcostanalysisWeareupdatingourGlobalMemoryModelinviewofthelatestresultsandrecentTechnology-Semiconductorscapexannouncement.WeexpectthememorymarkettoreachUS$150bn,or2

3、0%ACannualgrowthsequentiallyoverallin2018(after71%growthin2017),with25%JJParkgrowthintheDRAMmarketand12%growthintheNANDmarket.However,we(82-2)758-5717expect2019tobeayearofcontraction,withtheoverallmarketsizedecliningbyajj.park@jpmorgan.comdouble-digitpercentasmemo

4、ryASPscorrectbyaround30%,andtheDRAMBloombergJPMAPARKASPdeclinehigherthanthatofNANDduetopriceelasticity.J.P.MorganSecurities(FarEast)Limited,SeoulBranchIndustrycapacitygrowingonthebackofmeaningfulcapexincreases.WeHarlanSurhighlightindustrycapexofUS$54bnfor2018

5、–a23%yoyincreaseoverthe(1-415)315-6700~US$44bnin2017.In2018E,whileDRAMcapexgrowsby~42%,NANDharlan.sur@jpmorgan.comcapexgrowsoffahighbaseby~10%.ForNAND,thiswillbethefourthJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCconsecutiveyearofcapexgrowth,withcumulativecapexofUS$91bnover2014-18E.W

6、ealsoexpectcapacitytocontinuetogrowwitha~11%waferHisashiMoriyamaadditionforbothDRAMandNANDoverthenexttwoyears.(81-3)6736-8601hisashi.moriyama@jpmorgan.comDepreciation/revenuedeclines,boostingmemoryOPMs.RecentyearshaveJPMorganSecuritiesJapanCo.,Ltd.seenahighergrow

7、thinrevenuethanindepreciation.Depreciation/revenueonanindustry-levelhadbeendeclininguntil2017,resultinginbetterOPMsforBillPetersoncompanies.However,asthemarketsizebeginstoshrinkin2019E,weexpect(1-415)315-6766depreciation/revenuetoaccelerateto26%forDRAMand42%forNAN

8、Dfrombill.peterson@jpmorgan.com18%and31%in2018,puttingpressureonindustryprofitability(refertop.5).J.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCBOMpressurescontinuetoriseduet