j.p. 摩根-亚太地区-半导体行业-半导体与spe：来自五个全球分析师的观点

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1、Completed18Jan201805:36PMJSTDisseminated18Jan201805:38PMJSTAsiaPacificEquityResearch18January2018Semiconductor/SPESectorsViewsofFiveJ.P.MorganGlobalAnalystsThefollowingpagespresenttheinitial2018opinionsoffiveJ.P.MorgananalystsJapanEquityResearchcoveringsemiconductorandrelate

2、dstocks.Overall,whiletheyexpectElectronics/Precision&Industrialsemiconductormarketgrowthtoslowin2018,theirlong-termview(5-10yearsACHisashiMoriyamaout)isforthemarkettoexpandviathecreationofnewmarketssuchasAI/deep(81-3)6736-8601learningandautonomousdriving.Theyseegrowthexpecta

3、tionsconvergingonhisashi.moriyama@jpmorgan.comcompaniesbiasedtostructuralmarketgrowthfactors.BloombergJPMAMORIYAMAJPMorganSecuritiesJapanCo.,Ltd.Globalsemiconductormarketvalueforecastsfor2018:Ourscenarioanalysisyieldsabear-caseforecastof4.0%growthfor2018,markedlyslowerH

4、arlanSur(1-415)315-6700than2017’sestimated+20.7%(Figure2).ItisbasedonaforecastforMOSharlan.sur@jpmorgan.commemorygrowthof0.9%,comparedwith+65.3%inthepreviousyear.OurJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCbase-caseforecastforlogicisfirm7.0%growthin2018,comparedwithJJParkestimated9.3%growthin

5、2017.ReflectingourforecastofgrowthforpowerICs(82-2)758-5717andsensors,weexpect4.4%growthforothersemiconductorproducts,trendingjj.park@jpmorgan.comsimilarto2017’sestimated6.8%growth.J.P.MorganSecurities(FarEast)Limited,SeoulBranchBottom-upcapitalinvestmentforecasts:Aggregati

6、ngindividualGokulHariharansemiconductorcompanies’capitalinvestment(Figure4)showsforecasttotal(852)2800-8564growthforCY2018almostflatat0.7%YoY.WeforecastNANDandrelatedgokul.hariharan@jpmorgan.comcapitalspending,mainlyatSamsungElectronics,todip16.5%YoYafterJ.P.MorganSecurities

7、(AsiaPacific)Limitedpeakingin2017.Weestimatecapitalspendinggrowthat11.1%forfoundriesSandeepDeshpandeand14.1%forDRAM,andseefoundryandrelatedinvestmentlikelyexpanding(44-20)7134-5276toward2H2018onpotentialbenefitsfromgrowingdemandforprocessorsforsandeep.s.deshpande@jpmorgan.co

8、mAI/deeplearning.J.P.MorganSecuritiesplcMasashiItayaTheinitial2018opinions