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1、Note:ThefollowingisanabridgedversionofGSResearch's2018globaleconomicoutlookAsGoodAsItGets.15November2017
2、10:29AMESTGlobalEconomicsAnalystAsGoodAsItGetsnForthefirsttimesince2010,theworldeconomyisoutperformingmostJanHatziusGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCpredictions,andweexpectthisstrengthtocontin
3、ue.OurglobalGDPforecastfor2018is4.0%,upfrom3.7%in2017andmeaningfullyaboveconsensus.TheSvenJariStehnGoldmanSachsInternationalstrengthinglobalgrowthisbroad-basedacrossmostadvancedandemergingNicholasFawcetteconomies.GoldmanSachsInternationalnOnthesupplyside,wehavealsoseententativesign
4、sofareboundinManavChaudharyproductivitygrowthfromitsdismalpost-crisistrend.Nevertheless,spareGoldmanSachsInternationalcapacityisdiminishingrapidly—andalreadyexhaustedinanumberofadvancedeconomies,includingtheUS.There,thequestionisnolongerwhetheroutputwillovershootpotential,butbyhowm
5、uch.Bycontrast,SouthernEuropeneedsseveralmoreyears’stronggrowthtoreturntofullemployment.nIftheoutputgaphaslargelyclosed,whyiscoreinflationstillsolow?Ouranalysissuggeststhatagoodpartoftheanswerliesinasizableandrelativelylong-lastingdragfromtheearlierweaknessinimportandcommodityprices
6、,whichhasoffsettherelativelysmall(thoughstatisticallyhighlysignificant)impactofdiminishingslacksofar.Overthenextyear,thesepass-througheffectsarelikelytodiminishandweexpectagradualincreaseinglobalcoreinflation,albeittolevelsthatarestillbelowcentralbanktargetsinmostplaces.nIfinflationdo
7、esmoveup,thestrengthinactivitywillsoonfeellike“toomuchofagoodthing”forsomecentralbanks,whichneedtoslowgrowthtoatrendratetopreventabiggeroverheating—andbiggerrecessionrisksdowntheroad.SoourFedcallisconsiderablymorehawkishthanmarketpricing,andwearealsoabovethemarketinsmallerG10econom
8、iessuchasSwedenandAustralia.Bycontrast,ourECBandBoJcallremainsmodestlydovishtothemarket.nFornow,fasterFedtighteningisunlikelytoweighsignificantlyonDMgrowth,wheredivergentmonetarypoliciestypicallyhavelimitednetfinancialspillovers.Andwhiletheimpactonemergingeconomiescouldbemoresignifica
9、nt,wethinkthatrecentstruct
