political risk in the world economies

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1、CHAPTER42POLITICALRISKINTHEWORLDECONOMIES∗MarvinZonisBecausethestatemustprovidethecrucialeconomic,financial,legal,andpoliticalinfrastructurefortheoperationofanymarketeconomy,politicalriskconsiderationsneedtobepartofeveryinvestmentdecision.Themodelpresentedheretoassesspoliticalriskuses1

2、0variablesthathavehistoricallybeenhighlypredictiveofpoliticalinstability;thepresentationrevealstheTop10andBottom10ofmid-1997.Internationalinvestorsappeartobeignoringconsiderationsofpoliticalriskintheirassetvaluations.Thisstrategycouldbedangerous.Statesplayanimmenseroleineconomiclife,s

3、othefatesofgovernmentsareimmenselysignificanttoallinternationalinvestors.Thispre-sentationreviewstheroleofpoliticalriskanalysisininvestmentmarketsanddiscussesthekeydriversofapoliticalriskstabilitymodelthatIdevelopedtwoyearsago.Thepoliticalriskrankingsproducedbythemodelofthe10moststable

4、and10leaststableof65countriesandsomenotesonChinaandRussiafollow.POLITICALRISKANALYSISMarketpricessuggestthatpoliticalriskisnotaparticularlyrelevantfactorinthemindsofinternationalinvestors.Forexample,thespreadsforsovereigndebt—notonlyofItalyandSpainversusFranceandGermanybutalsooftheeme

5、rgingmarkets—haveallnarrowed.Furthermore,theNovember/December1996issueoftheFinancialAnalystsJournalcontainsanarticleinwhichtheauthorsconclude,“Tradingonthebasisofthepolitical-riskmeasurealonehasnoabilitytoproduceabnormalreturns.”1Politicalriskhasapparentlydiminishedovertime.Forexample

6、,thedangerofnational-izationhasvirtuallydisappeared.So,someonewhoconsiderspoliticalrisktobeprimarilythe∗ReprintedfromAIMRConferenceProceedings:InvestingWorldwideVIII:DevelopmentsinGlobalPortfolioManagement(September1997):1–6.651CH042.indd6518/28/108:47:37PM652PartIII:ManagingRisk—Glob

7、alRiskdangerofnationalizationwillnotwanttospendmoneyoninsuranceagainstnationalizationortaketheriskofnationalizationintoaccountinassetdecisions.Andinfact,theevidencefromtheequityandfixed-incomemarketsisthatthemarketshavediscountedthisrisk.Anothersignthatinvestorsaredownplayingpoliticalr

8、iskis