The Impact of Political Risk in the ASEAN on the Flow of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment

《The Impact of Political Risk in the ASEAN on the Flow of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。

2018届研究生硕士学位论文分类号：____________________________学校代码：10269密级：______________________________学号：51152200027EаstChinаNormаlUniversity硕士学位论文MАSTER’SDISSERTАTION论文题目：TheImpactofPoliticalRiskintheASEANontheFlowofChina’sOutwardForeignDirectInvestment院系：国际关系与地区发展研究院专业：国际关系研究方向：对外投资的政治经济学指导教师：白永辉教授学位申请人：OleksandraZavertailo2018年5月23日2 Dissertationformasterdegreein2018StudentID:51152200027Universitycode:10269EastChinaNormalUniversityTitle:TheImpactofPoliticalRiskintheASEANontheFlowofChina’sOutwardForeignDirectInvestmentDepartment:SchoolofAdvancedInternationalandAreaStudiesMajor:______InternationalRelations_________Researchdirection:PoliticalEconomyofForeignDirectInvest-ment__________Supervisor:ProfessorJean-MarcF.Blanchard,Ph.D.___Candidate:OleksandraZavertailo__May23,2018 华东师范大学硕士学位论文OleksandraZavertailo硕士学位论文答辩委员会成员名单姓名职称单位备注潘兴明教授华东师范大学主席王铁军副教授华东师范大学孙溯源副研究员华东师范大学4 华东师范大学硕士学位论文AbstractTheemergenceofChinaasoneoftheworld’slargestoutwarddirectin-vestorhadamajorimpactonallAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations.ASEANandChinashareacomplexrelationshipineconomicandpoliticalterms;theirdialoguemechanismhasbeenevolvingfromconsensus-seekingtostrategicmeans,andwhiletheycooperateinseveralspheres,conflictofinterestsisnotuncommoneither.ThestudyexaminestheimpactofpoliticalrisksinAssociationofSouth-eastAsianNationsontheflowofChina’soutwardforeigndirectinvestmentandevaluatestheinfluenceofdiplomaticexchangebetweenChinaandtheASEANcountriesontheFDIflows.AnalysisshowsthatpoliticalriskintheASEANhasanegativeeffectonChina’sflowofoutwardforeigndirectin-vestment,whileterritorialdisputesbetweenhome/hostcountriesdonothaveasignificantnegativeinfluenceontheOFDIcomingfromChina.Highernum-berofbilateralseniorvisitsbetweenChinaandASEANMemberStateshasapositiveeffectonChina’sOFDI.AnovelcontributionofthepaperistotestthecorrelationbetweenChina’sFDIflowsandthelevelofinternalandexter-nalpoliticalrisksinthecountries-recipients.Keywords:FDI,politicalrisk,territorialissues5 华东师范大学硕士学位论文内容摘要中国对外投资能量崛起影响东南亚国家联盟。在经济和政治方面东盟与中国有复杂的关系。他们的对话机制有改变了从寻找共识到合作策略。中国与东盟合作方面比较宽，可是他们还有观念冲突。本论文将分析东南亚国家联盟政治风险对中国对外投资的影响和中国对外投资与中国东盟邦交的关系。分析结果表明政治风险对中国对外投资具有消极影响，可是中国与各东南亚国家领土纠纷对中国的对外投资并没有重大影响。中国与东盟各国之间的双边高层外交对中国对外投资有促进作用。本论文新的贡献则是分析中国对外投资与国内外的政治风险的相关性。关键词：对外投资、政治风险、领土纠纷6 华东师范大学硕士学位论文CONTENTIntroduction...................................................................................................8ChapterI.Literaturereview........................................................................9Part1.1.DeterminantsofChina’soutwardforeigndirectinvestmen.....................................................................................................................9Part1.2.PoliticalriskandFDI...............................................................10Part1.3.Negativeimpactofpoliticalrisk.............................................11Part1.4.NeutraleffectofpoliticalriskonFDI....................................12Part1.5.PositiveeffectofpoliticalriskonFDI....................................13ChapterII.China-ASEANpoliticalandeconomicrelations..................15Part2.1.Overview...................................................................................15Part2.2.Fromhedgingtochoosingsides..............................................18Part2.3.Indonesia...................................................................................19Part2.4.ThePhilippines.........................................................................21Part2.5.Malaysia....................................................................................23Part2.6.Vietnam.....................................................................................25Part2.7.Brunei........................................................................................27ChapterIII.Themodel..............................................................................29Part3.1.Dataandvariables....................................................................30Part3.2.Dependentvariable..................................................................30Part3.3.Independentvariables..............................................................31Part3.4.Controlvariables......................................................................34Part3.5.Calculationsandresults...........................................................36Part3.6.Discussion..................................................................................38Conclusion...................................................................................................39References....................................................................................................42Appendix......................................................................................................50Acknowledgement.......................................................................................557 华东师范大学硕士学位论文IntroductionTheeconomicdevelopmentofemergingmarketsanddevelopingcoun-triesdependstoalargeextentonthepossibilitytomakeprofitableinvestmentsandaccumulatecapital.Accesstoforeigncapitalandinvestmentflowsallowsacountrytoexploitopportunitiesthatotherwisecouldnotbeused.Thedeci-sionprocessofinvestinginanothercountryisacomplicatedprocessthatin-volvesdifferentdeterminants.WhiletheeconomicdeterminantsofFDIflowshavebeenanalyzedtoaconsiderabledegree,theimportanceofpoliticalchangeshavereceivedlessattention.Thephenomenonthatattractedourat-tentionispoliticalrisk,andresearchershasbeendividedontheissueofitsinfluenceoneconomiccooperationbetweenthestates.ThestudiesonpoliticalriskandFDIhavebeendividedintothreecontroversialcamps,whereitwasproventhatpoliticalriskhasnegativeeffectonFDIinflows,positiveeffectornoeffectatall.SomestudiesshowthatthecountrieswithhighpoliticalrisktendtoattractlessFDI,statingthatahosteconomywithhighpoliticalrisktendstodiscourageFDIflowsintoitsmarket,sincepoliticalvolatilityhurtstheprof-1itabilityofforeigninvestment.Otherresearchersfoundpositivecorrelationbetweenpoliticalriskandforeigndirectinvestmentinflowsclaimingthatin-creasedeconomicinterdependencewillreducethechancesofconflictbe-2tweenthestates.Anothergroupofstudiesshowsthatpoliticalriskdoesnot3haveanyinfluenceonFDI.Giventhis,specificcircumstancesofpoliticalandeconomicinteractionbetweenhomeandhostcountrieshavetobetakenintoaccount.ThemainpurposeofthispaperistoexaminetheimportanceofpoliticalriskonChina’sOFDItotheAssociationoftheSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN),consideringtheirbackgroundofpoliticalandeconomiccoopera-tionandcontrollingforsomeotherrelevantdeterminantsofobservedchangesinFDIflows.Morespecifically,theeffectsofpoliticalstability,government1BusseandHefeker“PoliticalRisk,InstitutionsandForeignDirectInvestment”;JunandSingh“TheDeterminantsofForeignDirectInvestmentinDevelopingCountries”;Wei“HowTaxingisCorruptiononInternationalInvestors”;GetzandVolkema“PerceptionsofCountryCorruption”;“Mauro“CorruptionandCompositionofForeignDirectInvestment”;CamposandNugent“Whoisafraidofpoliticalinstability?”2Polacheck“ConflictandTrade”;Mansfield“DemocratizationandtheDangerofWar”;Polacheck,RobstandChang“LiberalismandInterdependence”;McDonald“PeacethroughTradeorFreeTrade?”3Bauer“TheStructureofPerceivedRisk”;Hayes“RiskAnalysisandManagement”8 华东师范大学硕士学位论文effectiveness,regulatoryquality,ruleoflaw,corruption,externalconflict,andinvestmentprofileareexamined.Thepaperisstructuredasfollows:theresultsofthepreviousstudiesarehighlightedinthefollowingsection.InChapter2,thebackgroundofeco-nomicandpoliticalcooperationbetweenChinaandASEANcountriesisde-scribed,includingspecificcasesofcountriesthatareinvolvedinterritorialtensionswithChinaintheSouthChinaSea.InChapter3,weexplaintheda-tasetsandthevariablesusedintheregressionanalysis,aswellastheresultsofouranalysis.ChapterI.LiteraturereviewSinceopeninguptoforeigntradeandinvestmentinthe1970s,Chinahasbeenamongtheworld’sfastest-growingeconomies,withrealannualgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)growthaveraging9.5%through2017.Itwasde-scribedbytheWorldBankas“thefastestsustainableexpansionbyamajor4economyinhistory”.Chinaplaysaninfluentialroleintheglobaleconomy,anditwillcontinuedoingso,asPresidentXiJinpingconfirmedinhiskeynotespeechattheWorldEconomicForuminDavossayingthatChina“shouldguideeconomicglobalization,cushionitsnegativeimpactanddeliveritsben-5efitstoallcountries”.Foreigndirectinvestment(FDI)isadriverwithabigpotentialtotransformtheglobaleconomy,andChinahasnotonlybecomeoneofthetopdestinationsforforeigninvestorsbuthasalsoexpandeditsfor-eignpresence.In2007,Chineseforeigndirectinvestmentaccountedforabout64percentoftotalflows,whilein2017,ithit17percent.Part1.1.DeterminantsofChina’soutwardforeigndirectinvestmentTheincreasedflowofChina’sforeigndirectinvestmentisdeterminedbyseveralfactors,andoneofthebiggestresearchquestionsinstudyingChineseinvestmentiswhetherCOFDIcomplieswiththegeneralmodelsofoutwardinvestment.Theresearchersgenerallyagreethattraditionalmodelsforout-wardinvestmentcanbeusedtoanalyzeCOFDI.Theaforementionedmodelsexplainwhymultinationalenterprisescompeteinternationallyandwhatdeter-minestheirlocationchoices.Dunning’seclecticparadigmisoneofthebasic4WorldBankChinaOverview5TheStateCouncilInformationOffice6TheDiplomat–HowChineseFDIwilltransformtheeconomy9 华东师范大学硕士学位论文7modelstoassessFDI.AccordingtoDunning’seclecticparadigm,foreigndi-rectinvestmentisdeterminedbythreesub-paradigms,suchas:ownership,lo-cationandinternalization(OLI).Theownershipandinternalizationad-vantagesarerelatedtothecapacitiesandmarketstructuresfortheMNEsthemselves:thepossessionandexploitationofmonopolypower,thecompe-tencyofmanagers,thepossessionofscarceandsustainableresources,whilethelocationadvantageoriginatesfromthehostcountries’investingenviron-ment,includingpolitical,economic,andinstitutionalfactors.Despiteuniversalityoftraditionalmodels,mostresearcherspointoutspecificcharacteristicsofChina’sforeigndirectinvestment,whicharediffer-8entfromgeneralmodels:specialownershipadvantages;governmentalin-9volvementinenterprises,especiallystate-ownedenterprises(SOE);homecountrycapitalmarketflaws:capitalatbelowmarketprices,overbiddingofSOEsduetolackofprivateshareholdersinSOEs;governmentalinfluence;SOEsasadominantplayerofChineseOFDI,canberequiredtoservepolitical10mandates.Part1.2.PoliticalriskandFDIAbove-mentionedstudiesprovideuswithanoverviewofChina’sOFDIdeterminants,however,certainfactorscanhaveanegativeeffectonthein-vestmentflow.InEY’ssurveyonriskmanagementforoverseasinvestment,itisclaimedthatthemajorrisksfacedbyChineseenterprises’overseasin-vestmentsarepolitical,economicandmarket-drivenandincludeforeignrela-11tions,exchangeratefluctuationandmarketsupervision.Amongthesecom-ponents,politicalriskismorecriticalinimportanceandmoremultifacetedin12impactthanfinancialoreconomicrisks.Thegoalofourresearchistoassess7Brewer“PoliticalRiskAssessmentforForeignDirectInvestmentDecisions”;Buckley,Clegg,CrossandVoss“EmergingCountries”;Hurst“ComparativeAnalysisoftheDeter-minantsofChina’sState-ownedOutwardDirectInvestmentinOECDandNon-OECDCountries”;Ramasamy“China’sOutwardForeignDirectInvestment:LocationChoiceandFirmOwnership”;8Buckley“EmergingCountries”9Hurst“ComparativeAnalysisoftheDeterminantsofChina’sState-ownedOutwardDi-rectInvestment”10Ramasamy“China’sOutwardForeignDirectInvestment:LocationChoiceandFirmOwnership”11EY“Surveyonriskmanagementforoverseasinvestment”12Krifa-Schneider“BusinessClimate,PoliticalRiskandFDIinDevelopingCountries:Ev-idencefromPanelData”10 华东师范大学硕士学位论文theextentoftheinfluenceofpoliticalrisksonChina’sforeigndirectinvest-mentflow.Inourunderstanding,politicalrisksincludepolicycontinuity,gov-ernmenteffectiveness,legalsystems,internationalrelations,relationswithChina,politicalandsecuritysituation.ItiseasyassumethatpoliticalriskwouldbeasignificantconstraintfortheFDIflowtoothercountries,however,furtherliteraturereviewshowsthatthisopinionisfarfrombeingindubitable.TheoreticalargumentsrelatingpoliticalrisktoFDIcanbecategorizedintothreebroadperspectives.ThefirstperspectiveassertsthatpoliticalriskhasanegativeimpactontheflowofFDI.Asecondtheoreticalpositionassertsthatpoliticalriskdoesnothaveavisibleeffectonforeigndirectinvestment.Athirdtheoreticalperspectivesuggeststhatpoliticalrisk,interstateconflictinparticular,hasapositiveeffectonFDIforthesakeoffosteringeconomicinterdependencebetweenthestatesandreducingthechancesofmilitarizedconflictsinthefuture.Part1.3.NegativeimpactofpoliticalriskAfewpreviousstudiesshowthatthecountrieswithhighpoliticalrisk13tendtoattractlessFDI.BusseandHefeker(2007)investigatethelinkagesamongpoliticalriskandFDIinflowsforadatasampleof83developingcoun-triescovering1984-2003.Theyfoundthatthesub-componentsofpoliticalrisk(governmentstability,internalandexternalconflictsetc.)haveanimpactonFDI.Politicalriskregardstohaveadisincentiveeffectoninvestmentsinceitincreasesuncertaintyencounteredbypotentialinvestors.Therestofthementionedstudiesindicatesimilarresults,althoughthedatasetsarenotasbroadastheoneusedbyBusseandHefeker.Jensen(2008)claimsthatahosteconomywithhighpoliticalrisktendstodiscourageFDIflowsintoitsmarket,sincepoliticalvolatilityhurtstheprof-itabilityofforeigninvestment.Theauthordistinguishesthreekindsofpoliti-calrisk,thatmightinfluencetheflowofFDI:nationalizationorexpropriationofforeignassets,policyinstabilityandwarandpoliticalviolence.Itisclaimed13BusseandHefeker“PoliticalRisk,InstitutionsandForeignDirectInvestment”;JunandSingh“TheDeterminantsofForeignDirectInvestmentinDevelopingCountries”;Wei“HowTaxingisCorruptiononInternationalInvestors”;GetzandVolkema“PerceptionsofCountryCorruption”;“Mauro“CorruptionandCompositionofForeignDirectInvestment”;CamposandNugent“Whoisafraidofpoliticalinstability?”11 华东师范大学硕士学位论文thatthesefactorshaveadiscouragingeffectontheflowofFDI.Furtherre-searchprovesthatwarandpoliticalviolence,onboththedomesticandinter-14nationallevel,distractforeigninvestment.Internationalconflicts,milita-rizeddisputes,civilwarsandothershavethetendencytodisrupttheorderlypoliticalinthehostcountry,andthusdiminishtheprofitsfromtheinvestment.Krifa-Schneiderresearchedthelinkagesamongpoliticalrisk,businessclimateandforeigndirectinvestmentinflows.SheshowedthatreducedlevelsofpoliticalriskareassociatedwithanincreasedinFDIinflows.Inthisre-search,thebusinessoperationconditionsappearasanimportantdeterminantofFDIflows.Hence,favorablebusinessconditionsparticipatetoanincreaseoftheFDI.Therearenoreasonstodoubttheresultsshownbytheafore-mentionedstudies,however,whileanalyzingtheimpactofpoliticalriskontheFDIflowofaparticularcountrytoanother,itisimportanttoconsiderspecificcharac-teristicsofboththehomeandhostcountries.Inourpointofview,theseresultsdonotreflectthewholepictureofeconomiccooperationbetweenourgoalparties,ChinaandtheASEANcountries.Thereasonisthatimportantcompo-nents,e.g.historicalbackgroundanddiplomaticinteractionbetweenthesetwoparticularsides,arenottakenintoaccount.Webelievethatindividualspecif-icsofthehost/homecountriesbringmoreprecisiontotheresults.Part1.4.NeutraleffectofpoliticalriskonFDIDespiteitsgreatimportance,politicalriskisnottheonlydeterminantthatdefinestheflowofforeigndirectinvestmentfromonecountrytoanother.BennettandGreenhavesuggestedthatnation’slevelofpoliticalinstability15maynothaveanegativeinfluenceontheforeigndirectinvestment.Intheirstudy,theauthorsresearchtherelationshipbetweennationalpoliticalstabilityandthedirectinvestment.Theytestedahypothesiswhethertherewasaneg-ativerelationshipbetweentheallocationofinvestmentthroughouttheworldandthelevelofpoliticalinstability.Politicalinstabilitywasdefinedinterms14BusseandHefeker“PoliticalInstitutionsandForeignDirectInvestment”;Bussmann“Foreigndirectinvestmentandmilitarizedinternationalconflict”;DanieleandMarani“ThequalityoflocalinstitutionsandFDI”;Desbordes“Globalanddiplomaticpoliticalrisksandforeigndirectinvestment”;Haftel“RegionalIntegration,SignalingandForeignDirectInvestment”;JunandSingh“TheDeterminantsofForeignDirectInvestmentinDevelopingCountries”;Tarzi“Foreigndirectinvestmentflowsintodevelopingcountries:impactoflocationandgovernmentpolicy”15BennettandGreen“PoliticalInstabilityasaDeterminantofDirectForeignInvestment”12 华东师范大学硕士学位论文ofthetypeandnumberofpoliticallyrelevant,aggressivebehaviorsoccurringwithinanationoverastipulatedtimeperiod.Asaresult,politicalinstabilitywasfoundnottodiscouragetheinvestment.Afewotherresearcherssuggestthatpoliticalriskmaynotplayasvitalaroleintheinvestmentdecision,more-16over,theforeigninvestmentdecisionsaremadeinanunsystematicway.Theliteraturethatpositionthispointofviewisverylimited,andmostimportantlyitisout-of-date.Wearenotabletorelyontheseresultsinourhypotheses,however,thisopiniongivesusanopportunitytotracktheevolu-tionofresearchonthistopic.Part1.5.PositiveeffectofpoliticalriskonFDITheoreticalperspectiveofpoliticalriskincreasingforeigninvestmenthasbeenbroughtupinnumerousresearches.However,mostauthorsdidnotusepoliticalriskasawholetocarryoutapositivecorrelationwiththeFDIflows;insteadtheyappliedexternalconflict,oneofthepoliticalriskcompo-17nents.Liberalresearchersclaimthatincreasedeconomicinterdependencewillreducethechancesofconflictbetweenthestates.Giventhat,thestate-mentthatpoliticalriskincreasesforeigninvestmentissomewhatone-sided,andwemightalsostatethatFDIflowsdecreasethelevelofconflict.Thear-gumentthatthebenefitscausedbyinterstatecommercewouldincreasethecostsofwarandhencereduceitsoccurrencecanbefoundasfarbackasthewritingsofKantandMontesquieu.Itwassuggestedthat‘republicanconstitu-tions’,a‘commercialspirit’ofinternationaltrade,andafederationofinterde-18pendentrepublicswouldprovidethebasisforperpetualpeace.Thus,eco-nomicinterdependenceofthenation-statesmitigatestheprobabilityofthemilitaryconflictbetweenthem.Analyzingtherelationsamongdemocraticstatesfrom1885to1992,OnealandRussett(1999)cametoaconclusionthattheinternationalsystemismorepeacefulwhentherearemoredemocraciesandwhentradeisgreater,asinterdependenceanddemocracycontributetotheso-called‘liberalpeace’.Manyotherresearchershavesimilarlyfoundanegativerelationshipintesting16Bauer“TheStructureofPerceivedRisk”;Hayes“RiskAnalysisandManagement”17ThePRSGroup18Kant“PerpetualPeace”13 华东师范大学硕士学位论文19theimpactofbilateraltradeonthefrequencyofwarbetweencountrypairs.Polachek(2005)suggestedthattrade-conflictrelationshipshouldbecomple-mentedwithanalyzingthecorrelationbetweencapitalflowsandconflict.Lateranalysisshowsthatincreasingcapitalflowsanddemocracyshouldlimit20theincentivetousemilitaryforceininterstaterelations.Inthemorerecentresearches,LeeandMitchell(2012)provedthatnew21territorialissuesarelesslikelytoariseasgloballevelsofFDIincrease.TheiranalysisshowedthathigherbilateralFDIflowsbetweentwodisputantssig-nificantlyreducethechancesforescalationtohighlevelsofviolenceoverissuesandimprovethechancesforpeacefulmanagement.IncreasinggloballevelsofFDIalsoreducethechancesforseveremilitarizedconflicts.Givenoverviewdoesnotallowustoassumethatpoliticalriskincreasestheflowsofforeigninvestment,moreover,wecanseetheoppositerelation-shipbetweentwovariables.Thepurposeofourstudyistocomplementprevi-ousstudiesbyprovingthatpoliticalrisk(oritsseparatecomponents)canac-tuallyincreasetheflowofforeigndirectinvestmentandusingtheconcreteexampleofChinaandtheASEANcountries.Forinstance,overthepastfewyearssomemember-statesofASEANwereinvolvedinterritorialdisputeswithChina.Atthesametime,thoseparticularcountrieshaveexperiencedarapidgrowthofforeigndirectinvestmentcomingfromChina.Underthesecircumstances,wecannotclaimthat,politicalriskistheonlydeterminantforChina’sFDIandnottakeintoaccounteconomicfactors,suchas:GDP,marketgrowth,tradeopennessandothers.Thequestionswearetryingtoanswerare:howpoliticalriskaffectstheforeigndirectinvestmentfromChinaandwhethereconomicinterestdeterminesthedecisionofChineseinvestors.WeneedfurtheranalysistodiscoverthenatureofcorrelationbetweenpoliticalriskintheASEANandChina’sOFDItothatregion.19Polacheck“ConflictandTrade”;Mansfield“DemocratizationandtheDangerofWarWorldPolitics”;Polacheck,RobstandChang“LiberalismandInterdependence:ExtendingtheTrade-ConflictModel”;McDonald“PeacethroughTradeofFreeTrade?”20Martin,MayerandThoenig“MakeTradeNotWar?”21GartzkeandLi“MeasureforMeasure:ConceptOperationalisationandtheTradeInter-dependence-ConflictDebate”;GartzkeandLi“InvestinginthePeace:EconomicInterde-pendenceandInternationalConflict”;RosencranceandThompson“Trade,foreigninvest-ment,andsecurity”;Lee“Politicalrisks,terrorism,andforeigndirectinvestment”;LeeandMitchell“ForeignDirectInvestmentandTerritorialDisputes”14 华东师范大学硕士学位论文ChapterII.China-ASEANpoliticalandeconomicrelationsSince1970s,Chinastartedthepolicyofopeningup,andtheworldsawthefirstChineseinvestments.Backinthosetimes,therewereonlyafewcasesofoutwardinvestments,however,wehaveobservedgradualgrowthintheamountoftheinvestmentgoingoutfromChina.SomeresearchersclaimthatChinesegovernmentpolicieshaveplayedanimportantroleintheprocessof22determiningthedestinationofFDI.OtherstudiesconfirmthestatementthatChinesemultinationalenterprisesrelyonthesupportfromthegovernment23wheninvestinothercountries.Giventhat,politicalanddiplomaticrelationsbetweenhomeandhostcountriesseemtohaveasignificantimpactonthedecision-makingprocess.Inthefollowingchapter,wegiveanoverviewofChina-ASEANdiplomaticandeconomicrelations,aswellasissuesthathin-derharmoniouscooperationbetweentwosides.Part2.1.OverviewTheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)wasestablishedon8August1967inBangkok,ThailandwiththesigningoftheASEANDec-laration(BangkokDeclaration)bythefiveFoundingMembersofASEAN,namelyIndonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,SingaporeandThailand,or24ASEAN-5.BruneiDarussalamjoinedASEANon7January1984,followedbyVietnamon28July1995,LaoPDRandMyanmaron23July1997,andCambodiaon30April1999,makinguptoday’stenMemberStatesofASEAN,orASEAN-10.TheformationofASEANwasprimarilydrivenbypoliticalandsecuritymotivationswithaviewtopromotingcooperationineconomic,social,cultural,technical,educationalandotherfields.ItspurposewasinthepromotionofregionalpeaceandstabilitythroughabidingrespectforjusticeandtheruleoflawandadherencetotheprinciplesoftheUnitedNationsChar-ter(ASEAN).ASEANandChinabegantheirdialoguerelationsinJuly1991,whentheMalaysiagovernmentinvitedQianQichen,FormerMinisterofForeignAffairsofPeople’sRepublicofChina,toattendtheopeningsessionoftheth24ASEANMinisterialMeeting(AMM)inKualaLumpur.Atthesession,22Wei“HowTaxingisCorruptiononInternationalInvestors?”;Alon“GlobalisationofChineseFirms:TheoreticalUniversalismorParticularism”23Cardoza,Fornes,Li,XuandXu“Chinagoesglobal:publicpolicies’influenceonsmall-andmedium-sizedenterprises’internationalexpansion”;24ASEANstats,ASEANTradeandInvestment15 华东师范大学硕士学位论文FMQianexpressedChina’s“keeninterest”tocooperatewithASEAN.Sub-thsequently,ChinawasaccordedfullDialoguePartnerstatusatthe29AMMinJuly1996inJakarta.Cooperationthroughthesemechanismswasmeantto25diluteWesterninfluenceonEastAsianaffairs.ASEAN-ChinarelationsdevelopedquicklyafterattainingfullDialoguethPartnerstatusin1996.Atthe7ASEAN-ChinaSummitinOctober2003inBali,bothsidesagreedtosigntheJointDeclarationoftheHeadsofState/Gov-ernmentonStrategicPartnershipforPeaceandProsperitywithPlansofAc-tion(POA)toimplementit.ThePeople’sRepublicofChinawasthefirstdi-aloguepartnertojointheTreatyofAmityandCooperation(TAC)in2003,aswellasthefirstnuclearweaponstatetoexpressitsintentiontojointheproto-coloftheSoutheastAsianNuclear-Weapon-FreeZoneTreaty.ASEANandChinahavealsocooperatedtoaddresstransnationalnon-traditionalsecuritythreatssuchasdrugandhumantrafficking,piracyandterrorism.ASEANandChinahavecontinuedtoenhancetheirpoliticalandsecuritycooperationthroughthemechanismsoftheASEANRegionalForum(ARF)andtheEast26AsiaSummit(EAS).InNovember2002,bothsidessignedtheFrameworkAgreementonComprehensiveEconomicCooperationthatestablishedtheASEAN-ChinaFreeTradeAgreement(ACFTA)realizedon1January2010.TheFTAisbe-lievedtohavestrengthenedtradetiesbetweenChinaandASEAN.ChinahasbeenASEAN’slargesttradingpartnersince2009,whileASEANisChina’sthird-largesttradingpartner.ThevolumeofbilateraltradejumpedfromUS$7.96billionin1991toUS$518billionin2017,markinganannualgrowthrateof18.5percent,thefastestgrowthpacebetweenChinaandanyofitsmajortradingpartners.Moreover,thevolumeofthetradeistargetedtoreach27US$1trillionby2020.InvestmentcollaborationwasoneofthemajoragendasbetweenASEANandChinasincethebeginningofdiscussions.Negotiationsfortheinvestmentagreementstartedin2003,anditwassignedin2009,withtheob-jectiveofprogressivelyliberalizinginvestmentregimesandenhancingcoop-erationbyincreasingtransparencyofthelegalframeworkandprotectionto25Shambaugh“ChinaEngagesAsia:ReshapingtheRegionalOrder”26stBa“ChinaandASEAN:RenavigatingRelationsfora21-CenturyAsia”27ASEANstats,ASEANTradeandInvestment16 华东师范大学硕士学位论文28investors’rights.ChinahadBilateralInvestmentTreaties(BITs),withallASEANcountries,pre-datingASEAN-ChinaFreeTradeAgreement(ACFTA).ThefirstChineseBITinSoutheastAsiawassignedwithThailandon12March1985,whilethelastagreementwaswithMyanmaron12De-cember2001.TheaccelerationofChineseflowintoASEANoccursaftertheglobalfinancialcrisisin2008,withthesupportfromtheinvestmentagreementbe-tweenASEANandChinaunderASEAN-ChinaFreeTradeAgreement29(ACFTA).Between2010and2016,ASEANattractedUS$62billioninFDIflowsfromChina.Thiscumulativeamountaccountedfor6percentofallFDIflowsinASEANduringthisperiod.ThelargestsharesforthesameperiodtheregionbelongtotheEuropeanUnionwith22percent,Japanwith13percent30andtheUnitedStateswith12percent.ChineseFDIintoASEANhasdou-bledin2016andwilllikelyremainstrong,boostinginvestment.Chinesedi-rectinvestmentintoASEANisthethirdlargestafterSingaporeandJapan.Thisamountedto$16billionsofChineseFDIintoASEANin2016,ledby31Indonesia,MalaysiaandThailand,whilein2015thefigurewas$8billion.ThemassiveattractionofforeigndirectinvestmentbyChinaalsoseemstocauseastrongsynergeticeffectandfostersFDIinflowstowardsSouthEastAsiacalled“Chinaeffect”.China’srisenotonlyattractsFDIinflowstotheASEANasaregion,butitalsopositivelyaffectstheFDIinflowsofvarious32individualASEANcountries.Itcouldbetheresultoftheeconomicinterde-pendencebetweenChinaandtheAssociationofSouthEastNations,aswellastheresultofexpandinganddiversifyingproductionnetworksofMNEsinSouthEastAsia.TheincreasedtradeflowsbetweenChinaandASEANunderChina-ASEANfreetradeagreementalsopartlyencouragedtheaforemen-tionedphenomenon.ChinahasalsoestablishedseveralmechanismstosupportandstrengthenfurthereconomiccooperationwithASEAN.In2009,PRCestab-lishedtheUS$10billionChina-ASEANFundonInvestmentCooperationand28ASEANSecretariat29Sermcheep“OutwardForeignDirectInvestmentinASEAN”30ASEANstats,ASEANTradeandInvestment31CreditSuisseGroup,ASEAN’spivottoChina32Sohn“TheNatureofFDICompetitioninEastAsia:Crowding-OutorCrowding-In?”17 华东师范大学硕士学位论文$US15billionincreditandpreferentialloanstosupportinfrastructuredevel-opmentprojectsintheASEANcountries.Moreover,on9October2013,fol-lowingtheMasterPlanonASEANConnectivity(MPAC)ChinapresentsaninitiativetosetupanAsianInfrastructureInvestmentBanktoprovidefinan-cialsupporttoregionalinfrastructureprojects,withpriorityonASEANcon-nectivity.ChinaandASEANhaveestablishedafullrangeofdialogueandcoop-erationmechanismsinvolvingstateleaders,ministersandseniorofficialsfrombothsides.Upto2017,thetwosidesheld20summitmeetingsandes-tablishedvariousministerialmeetingmechanismsinthefieldsofforeignpol-icy,economy,transportation,customadministrators,attorneygeneral,youthaffairs,health,telecommunication,press,qualityinspectionandcombating33internationalcrimes.Part2.2.FromhedgingtochoosingsidesRelationsbetweenChinaandtheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNa-tions(ASEAN)haveundergonetremendouschangesincetheirestablishmentin1991,anditsdiscussionhasbeenfocusedmostlyonconcernsaboutChina’s34influenceandrisingpositionintheregionandtheworld.InInternationalRelationstheoriesresearchershighlightafewpolicyoptionsofstatesfacinganemergingpower.Thestatewouldeitherchoosetobalance(internallyand/orexternally)againstthedominantpowerorbandwagonwiththatpower.Thelatterisdividedfurtherintobandwagoningbecauseoffearorbandwagon-35ingforprofits.Hedgingbecameanotherconceptasapolicyoptionforstatesfacinguncertaininternationalenvironments.TheASEANstrategywaschar-acterizedashedging,becausethemember-statesbothseekU.S.supportand36workwithChina.Thisstrategyisnecessaryfortheregiontosecureitsinter-ests.Allmember-statesrecognizetheinevitabilityofChina’sriseandseeitbothopportunitiesandchallenges.ASEANwasactivelyengagingChinaindiplomaticcooperationandexpandingeconomicties,atthesametime,mem-33XinhuaonChina-ASEANcooperation34stBa“ChinaandASEAN:RenavigatingRelationsfora21-CenturyAsia”35Yuan“OwnershipStructureofChineseSME’sandtheChallengesItPresentstoTheirGrowth”36DuttaandRoy“ForeignDirectInvestment,FinancialDevelopmentandPoliticalRisks”18 华东师范大学硕士学位论文berstatesdidnotopposethemilitarypresenceoftheUnitedStatesinthere-37gion.However,inrecentyears,ASEANseemstohaveswitchedthehedgingpolicyandshownmorefavorableattitudetowardsChina.Forinstance,attherd3ASEAN-U.S.SummitinKualaLumpurtheUnitedStatesanditsallieshadinsistedonamentionofdisputesintheSouthChinaSeainthejointstatement,38thatconcludedinASEANnotreleasingit.ThesameincidentoccurredataspecialASEAN-Chinaforeignministers’meetingin2016andASEANSum-mitin2017,whereSoutheastAsianleaderswerenotabletoreleaseajointstatementaddressingterritorialissuesintheSouthChinaSea.ThisuncertaintyincommunicatingthestatementmightbecausedbyincreaseddependenceofASEANoncooperationwithChina.AlthoughChinahasdevelopedextensivetieswithASEANonpoliticalandeconomicfronts,Beijingalsohasmaintainedcloserelationshipswithspe-cificmemberstates,whichremainessentialinChina’sregionaldiplomacy,especiallywhereterritorialdisputesareconcerned.EachmemberstatehasuniquehistoricalexperiencesdealingwithChina.ASEANcountries’percep-tionsofChinavarydependingonhistory,geography,andtheextentandnatureofunresolvedissues.Inthefollowingpart,wewilldiscussinmoredetailstheASEANcountriesthatarecurrentlyinvolvedinterritorialdisputeswithChina,howdiplomaticrelationshavechangedovertimeandinfluencedeconomiccooperationbetweentheconflictingstates.Wewanttolookateconomicco-operationbetweenconflictingstatesthroughaprismofdiplomaticrelationsduetotheirinseparablebond.However,specificcharacteristicsofChina-ASEANrelationswillhelpusfindouttheconnectionbetweenterritorialdis-putesandinvestmentdecisions,ifthereisany.Part2.3.IndonesiaAsthelargestmemberstateandaninitialleaderofASEAN,IndonesiahashadacomplexrelationshipwithChina.Inthe1950s,JakartaandBeijingforgedclosetiesinpromotingAsian-Africanemergenceandsolidarity,viathefamousBandungConferenceof1955,atwhichtheFivePrinciplesofPeacefulCoexistencewerepromulgated.However,bilateralrelationsentered37Goh“MeetingtheChinaChallenge:TheU.S.inSoutheastAsianRegionalSecurityStrategies”38TheDiplomat,TheImportanceofthejointStatementontheUS-ASEANStrategicPart-nership19 华东师范大学硕士学位论文theperiodofstagnationafterthefailed1965coup,subsequentpurgeandpros-ecutionofmembersoftheIndonesianCommunistPartyaswellasofethnicChinese.Over500,000Chinesereportedlywerekilled.Thetwocountriessev-ereddiplomaticrelations,andonlyin1990diplomatictiesbetweentwocoun-trieswererestored.Thatyear,IndonesianForeignMinisterAliAlatasandhisChinesecounterpart,QianQichen,signedaMemorandumofUnderstanding39ontheResumptionofDiplomaticRelationsbetweenIndonesiaandChina.Whilebilateralrelationsarestableandhavecontinuedtogrowinrecentyears,therearestillsomeunresolvedissues.OneissuewasrelatedtoIndone-siamaintainingdiplomaticrelationswithTaiwan.IndonesianandTaiwaneseofficialswerevisitingeachother’scountries,thatbroughtnegativenotetotherelationswithBeijing.AnotheroneisaboutoverlappingclaimsoversomeareasintheSouthChinaSea.Inthespiritofconflictescalation,IndonesiaannouncedthatithadrenamedanorthernpartarounditsNatunaIslands,that40isrichinresources,asNorthNatunaSea.ThenamingservedasareminderofIndonesia’spositionintheSouthChinaSea.ThesamedayIndonesiangov-ernmentannouncedrenamingthenorthernsideofitseconomiczone,Indone-sia’smilitarysignedamemorandumofunderstandingwiththeMinistryofEnergyandMineralResourcestoprovidelandandmaritimesecurityforre-sourceexplorationactivities.Tojustifythismove,officialsexplainedthattheresourcesexplorationactivitieswereofteninterruptedby“foreign-flagged”41vessels.Indonesiawasaccusedofcomplicationandexpansionofthedispute42andaffectingpeaceandstabilityintheregion.Despiteaforementioneddisagreements,economicrelationsdonotseemtobeaffectedbythedispute.In2002,MemorandumofUnderstanding(MOU)43wassignedthatsetuptheIndonesia-ChinaEnergyForum.ThestrengthofcooperationbetweenChinaandIndonesiaisalsoevidentwiththeinvestmentcommitmentfromChinaDevelopmentBank(CDB)ofUS$14.4billionfor57projectssinceitenteredIndonesiain2006.Inrecentyears,investmentfrom39Aplianta“Indonesia’sResponseintheSouthChinaSeaDisputes”40TheDiplomat,WhyIndonesiaJustRenameItsPartofSouthChinaSea41CNBC,IndonesiaIncreasesMaritimeDefenseinSouthChinaSea42ChannelNewsAsia,ChinademandsIndonesiarescinddecisiontorenamepartofSouthChinaSea43Yuan“China-ASEANRelations:Perspectives,ProspectsandImplicationsforU.S.In-terests”20 华东师范大学硕士学位论文Chinahasreachednewlevels.In2015,Indonesiareceived$1.5billioninfor-eigndirectinvestmentfromChina,whilein2016thefigurerosetoanunprec-44edented$4.9billion.Thus,theinvestmentfromChinagrewby92.79per45centyear-on-year.In2015,theIndonesianandtheChinesegovernmentssignedaUS$5.1billionhigh-speedrailwaycontracttobuildahigh-speedrail-46wayconnectingJakartaandBandung.Chinahasalsoinvestedheavilyin47Indonesiancoalpowerplants,totalingUS$5.8billionfrom2015to2016.Apartfromtheinvestmentsinsmeltersandinfrastructure,theIndonesianof-ficialsmentionedthatthequalityofChineseinvestmentshasincreasedadding48tourismtothelistofinvestmentprojects.GivennumbersshowthatChinaisnotdiscouragedfrominvestinginIndonesia,evenduetothefactofhavingunresolveddisputes.Moreover,eco-nomiccooperationbetweentwopartiescontinuestogrowovertheyearswithunprecedentedspeed.Part2.4.ThePhilippinesSino-PhilippinerelationsaremoreintensethanwithothermemberstatesofASEAN,becausethePhilippinesisconfronteddirectlywiththeterritorialdisputewithChina.AftertheMischiefReefincident,ManilasoughtsupportfromASEAN,whichexpresseditsconcernandurgedBeijingtoabidebythe1992ASEANDeclarationontheSouthChinaSea.Thetwocountriessubse-quentlysignedacodeofconducttoeasetensionandseekmaritimecoopera-tion.ThePhilippinessignedaVisitingForcesAgreementwiththeUnitedStatesin1999andrequestedthatWashingtonprovidemilitaryassistance.TheRepublicofPhilippineswasidentifiedasamajornon-NATOallyandwas49providedwithnearlyUS$500millioninmilitaryassistancesince2002.TofurtherdemonstrateitspositiononthesovereigntyissueintheSouthChinaSea,in2014,thePhilippinescalledforinternationalarbitrationwithChinaoveroverlappingterritorialclaimsintheUnitedNationsTribunal.ThePer-manentCourtofArbitration(PCA)hasruledinfavorofthePhilippinesinthis44UNCTAD,WorldInvestmentReport45TheJakartaPost,InvestmentfromChinagrowsby92.79percent46ChinaDaily,Indonesianrailprojectkicksoff47NikoAssetManagement,TheRiseofChineseFDIintoASEAN48Xinhua,IndonesiakeentofurtherexpandtourismcooperationwithChina49LumandNiksch“TheRepublicofPhilippines:Background”21 华东师范大学硕士学位论文case,anditcertainlybroughtashadowintheSino-Philippinerelations.How-ever,withelectionofPresidentRodrigoDuterte,theforeignpolicyofthePhil-ippineshasgonethroughradicalchanges.PresidentRodrigoDutertemadeafewstatementsdeclaringhiscountry’s“separation”fromtheUnitedStatesthatvariedfromcheeringoverthenew-foundfriendshipwithChinatosaying50thathe“willnotgotoAmericaanymore”.DuringtheannualmeetingoftheASEANforeignministers,thattookplaceinAugust2017inManilaontheth50anniversaryoftheSouth-EastAsianbloc’sformation,UnitedStates,Ja-panandAustraliawerecallingforastrongerresponsetoChina’sisland-build-51ingoperationandmilitarizationoftheSouthChinaSea.However,intheformulationofthejointcommuniquethePhilippinesinsistedondroppingref-erencesto“lendreclamations”and“militarization”intheSouthChinaSea,astheseweredirectedatBeijing.Itwasstatedthatthereferences“arenotreflec-52tiveofthepresentposition”.DespitetheuncertaintiesovertheislandsintheSouthChinaSea,itreflectsPresidentDuterte’smovetocloseupthegapbe-tweenthetwonationsanddecisiontoputasidethedisputeoverislandscallingforbringingbiggerandbettertradeopportunitiesforbothcountries.Thus,restorationoftraderelationsbetweentwocountriesisexpectedtoboostthe53FDIflowfromChinatothePhilippines.ASEANmember-countriesmostlyencountertheraiseofFDIflowsfromChina,however,thePhilippinesstillpaleincomparisonagainstreportednumbersinotherSoutheastAsiancountries.In2015,ChinaandHongKongaccountedforjust1.4percentofthetotalFDIflowinthePhilippines.Somesourcesnameaninter-elitecompetitionunderadministrationofGloriaMacapagalArroyointheperiodfrom2001-10asoneofthereasonsforalowlevelofChina’sFDIinflows.Therewereover20dealsnegotiated,agreedandalmostimplementedduringthatperiod,however,onlyonelargeproject54passed.WithChinasupportingPresidentDuterte’sforeignpolicyshiftawayfromtraditionalallytheUnitedStatesandtowardsdoingmoreregionaldeals,ChinahasalreadyagreedtocooperatewiththePhilippineson30projects50Reuters,DutertealignsPhilippineswithChina51StraitsTimes,JointcommuniqueonSouthChinaSeadisputebalanced:Philippines52Ibid.53Kittelson&CarpoConsulting,China-PhilippinerelationsexpectedtoboostPhilippinesFDI54EastAsiaForum,WhydidChineseinvestmentinthePhilippinesstagnate22 华东师范大学硕士学位论文55worthUS$3.7billionfocusingonpovertyreduction.AccordingtothePhil-ippinefinancedepartment,ChineseofficialsalreadypledgedUS$15billionofinvestmenttothePhilippines.Sino-Philippinerelationshaveexperiencedafundamentalchangeintherecentyears.ThePhilippineslooksformoreopportunitiestoboostitsecon-omy,andforeignpolicyshiftmightfostereconomiccooperationwithoneofthemostpowerfulplayersintheregion.PresidentDuterte’sstatementsclearlyindicatehisintentionstosecurediplomaticandeconomictieswiththePRC,however,itistooearlytojudgewhatwillbetheoutcomeofhisshifttomoreregionalcooperation.Part2.5.MalaysiaMalaysiaestablisheddiplomaticrelationswithChinain1974.Foralongtime,MalaysiangovernmentwasconcernedaboutBeijing’ssupportofthe56CommunistPartyofMalaysia.However,withtheendoftheColdWarMa-laysiabegantoadoptapolicyofengagementwithChinaduetouncertainty57overlong-termcommitmentoftheUnitedStatestotheregion.AbdullahBadawi,MalaysiaForeignMinisterinthe1990s,expressedthisopinionontheimportanceofengagingChina:“CloserelationsandcooperationbetweenMalaysiaandChinawouldalleviateanyattemptbyChinatoresorttomilitaryactionbecausethatwouldalsobedetrimentaltoChina…Ifthereisnocoop-eration,thereisapossibilityChinamayresorttomilitaryaction(againstMa-laysia)orcauseconflictherebecauseitwillnotloseanything.Wewantto58createachoice(forChina)”.MalaysiamadeadramaticchangeinitspositiontowardsChina,shiftingfromtheearliersuspicionstosupportingChinainallissues,fromsecuritytohumanrights.BeijingandKualaLumpurhavefoundmutualinterestsinde-fendingtheprinciplesofsovereignty,noninterferenceindomesticaffairs,andtheneedtodevelopafairerandmoreequitableinternationalpoliticalandeco-59nomicorder.Bilateralrelationshavebeenstrengthenedthroughregularvis-55CNBC,ChinaandthePhilippinesAgreetoCooperateon30projectsworth37billion56Leong“MalaysiaandPeople’sRepublicofChinainthe1980s:PoliticalVigilanceandEconomicPragmatism”57LeongandKu“ChinaandSoutheastAsia:GlobalChangesandRegionalChallenges”58Ibid.59Acharya“SeekingSecurityintheDragon’sShadow:ChinaandSoutheastAsiaintheEmergingAsianOrder”23 华东师范大学硕士学位论文itsbytopleadersandhigh-rankingofficialsandmechanisms,suchastheMa-laysia-ChinaFriendshipSociety,theBilateralMeetingbetweenForeignOffi-cialsofMalaysiaandChina,andtheBeijingDialogueonMalaysiaandChina60Partnership.AsfortheoverlappingterritorialclaimsintheSouthChinaSea,ChinaandMalaysianegotiatedtheirdisagreementsonbilaterallevel,exactlythewayChinapreferssolvingtheissues.TheywerecommittedtocooperateintheSouthChinaSeaandformalizedthisdecisionbysigninganagreementon61navycooperationinOctober2016.Theagreementalsoimpliedenhancedcooperationininfrastructure,agriculture,trade,investmentandlawenforce-mentwithparticularprojectsbeingplannedinthenearesttime,suchas:aneastcoastrailwaylinkinMalaysiaandanoilandgaspipelineinSabah.Thenextyearaftersigningtheagreementoncooperation,MalaysianForeignMin-isterAnifahAmanclaimedthat“theredoesnotexistanyoverlappingclaims62orterritorialdisputesbetweenMalaysiaandChinaontheSouthChinaSea”.Intermsofeconomiccooperation,MalaysiahasbeenoneofthelargestbeneficiariesofChineseFDI.AMemorandumofUnderstanding(MoU)amountingto$33billionwassignedbetweenChinaandMalaysiaduringMa-laysiaPrimeMinisterNajibRazak’svisittoChinainNovember2016.ThecenteroftheseinvestmentsisOneBeltOneRoadInitiative(OBOR),thusthedealsarelargelyorientedaroundregionalconnectivityandinfrastructurede-velopment.RecentstatisticsrevealthatChineseFDInowaccountsfor6%of63totalMalaysiaFDIinflows,upfromjust1%in2010.Intheperiodfrom2013to2016,ChinesegroupshaveinvestedmorethanUS$2.1billioninMa-64laysianrealestateseekingacheaperalternativetoAustraliaandHongKong.ThecloseeconomictiesbetweenMalaysiaandChinawereunderlinedinMarch2017whenAlibabaannounceditwouldsetuparegionallogistichubnearKualaLumpurairport.60Liow“StrategicandSecurityPatternsinMalaysia’sRelationswithChina”61TheGuardian,ChinaandMalaysiaAgreeontheMilitaryCooperationintheSouthChinaSea62AsiaTimes,MalaysiaspeakssoftlyintheSouthChinaSea63NikoAssetManagement,TheRiseofChineseFDIintoASEAN64FinancialTimes,ChinaovertakesSingaporeasMalaysianbiggestinvestor24 华东师范大学硕士学位论文China-MalaysiarelationshadundergonearadicalshiftaftertheColdWar,whenMalaysiangovernmentdecidedtoconducttheengagingpolicyto-wardsChina.ItwasimportantforMalaysiatoengageChinaincloseeconomicandpoliticalcooperationtoreducetheriskofmilitarizedconflictinthefuture.Malaysiahasalsocommittedtopeacefulandharmoniousdevelopmentintheregionbynotinvolvinginternationalmechanismsandsolvingterritorialissuesinbilateralform.IntensifiedeconomiccooperationbetweenChinaandMa-laysiaandreadinesstoresolvetheissuespeacefullycouldimplythatthesetwocountrieswillhaveevenlessreasonstobeinvolvedinthemilitarizedconflict.Part2.6.VietnamChinaandVietnamhavehadacheckeredrelationshipsinceitsestab-lishment.Betweenthe1950sand1970s,BeijingsupportedHanoi’santi-Frenchandanti-Americancausesbyprovidingsignificantfinancialandmili-taryaid.HoChiMinhhimselfvisitedChinanolessthat30timesbetween1949and1969,theyearwhenhedied.However,inthelate1970s,relationsbegantosour,whichwasdrivenbyadisagreementonhowIndochinashouldberun.ChinaconsideredVietnam’sassertivenessasHanoi’sownaspirationforregionalhegemony.ItwasfollowedbyVietnam’sexpellingofhundredsofthousandsofChineseresidentsandVietnam’s1978invasionofCambodiatounseattheKhmerRougeregimeinadirectchallengetoChineseinterests.Militaryclashes,thattookplacelaterin1979,causedtremendousdamagetobothsides.Itwasnotuntiltheearly1990sthatthetwocountriesnormalized65relations.ChinaandVietnamhavegonealongwaytoreachmutualagreementontheissueconcerningthedisputableterritory.Ifthelandborderdisputewasresolvedin1999bysigningatreaty,maritimeissuesstillputashadowon66diplomaticrelationsbetweentwocountries.AlthoughtheAgreementonFisheryCooperationwassignedinDecember2000,occasionalclasheswere67stilltakingplacebetweenthefishermenfrombothcountries.VietnamhasemergedasthemostvocalregionalopponentofChina’smaritimeclaimsinSoutheastAsia.Moreover,arowoverChineseoildrilling65李辉。中越：高层互访促合作66Amer“AssessingSino-VietnameseRelations”67Tennesson“Sino-VietnameseRapprochementandtheSouthChinaSeaIrritant”25 华东师范大学硕士学位论文indisputedwatersintheSouthChinaSeain2014sparkedanti-Chinademon-strationsinVietnam.ThefactoriesthoughttobeChineseweresetonfire,beforetherigwasremoved.WithVietnamrenewingadealwiththeoverseassubsidiaryofstate-ownedIndianoilfirmONGCtoexploreforfossilfuelsundertheoceanfloorandfishingontheterritoryclaimedbyChina,futureof68therelationsbetweentwocountriesdidnotseemtoobright.However,inNovember2017duringPresidentXi’sstatevisitleadersofbothcountriesfoundacommongroundand,consequently,releasedajointstatementsayingthattheywouldworktogethertomaintain“peaceandstability”intheSouth69ChinaSea.Itlookslikeasignificantimprovementintherelationshipbe-tweenbothcountries,especiallywhenearlierthatyearVietnamwasinsistingonusingtoughlanguagecriticizingChina’sislandbuildingintheSouthChina70Sea.Despiteterritorialandpoliticalissues,ChineseinvestmentsinVietnamandbilateraltradebetweenthetwonationshavegrown,althoughnotconsist-ently.In2012,China’sFDIinVietnamwasUS$312million,whilein2013itrosetoUS$2.3billion.Recently,ChinahasbecomethebiggestinvestorinVietnam,withregistering$608millionworthofFDIinthefirsttwomonths71of2017.Over60percentofallChineseFDIfocusesonmanufacturingandprocessing,withamajorityoftheinvestmentfocusedonlabor-intensivein-dustries.ExpertsmentionedthatmostofChinese-investedprojectsinVietnamareconcentratedinareaswithcheaplabourandfacehighriskofpollutionsuchasgarmentandtextiles,hydropower,steelproduction,chemicalsandce-72ment.Tradevolumesbetweenthetwonationshaveincreasedsignificantlyinthelastfewyears.AccordingtoChinesestatistics,itsexportstoVietnamgrewbyanaverageannualrateof18percentduring2010-2016.TheSino-Vietnamesehistoryofdiplomaticrelationshasbeencontro-versial,however,tradeandinvestmenttrendsbetweenthetwocountriesdemonstratethateconomycanbeanewkindofdiplomacy.WithChinabe-comingthelargestinvestorinVietnam,thelatterchangesharshstatementstowardsChinaontheoverlappingclaimsintheSouthChinaSeainthe68Forbes,VietnambecomesAsia’smostaggressivemaritimenationafterChina69BusinessInsider,ChinaandVietnamagreetomaintainpeaceandstabilityindisputedSouthChinaSea70ChinaDaily,VietnamoutofstepwithrestofASEAN71Vietnamnet,ChineseInvestmentintoVietnamontheSharpRise72Ibid.26 华东师范大学硕士学位论文ASEANJointStatement.Chinahasalwaysexpresseditswilltosolvetheissueonbilaterallevel,notinvolvinginternationalmechanismsintotheprocess,therefore,investmentcouldbeusedasapowerfultooltoreachpeacefulcon-sensusoverterritorialissue.Part2.7.BruneiBruneiandChinainitiateddiplomatictieson30September1991.Withthis,ChinaachievedofficialtieswithallASEANstates.ChinaandBruneidonothavealonghistoryofeconomiccooperation,but,generally,Bruneiwel-comeChineseenterprisesmakinginvestmentsanddevelopingbusinessthere,andthecountryisreadytomaintainhigh-levelcontactswithChina.Hence,BruneiagreestocooperatewithChinaonOneBeltOneRoadInitiativeandSouthChinaSeaissues.In2017,intheroundofnegotiationbetweenthegov-ernmentscooperativedocumentsoninfrastructure,healthanddefenseaffairs73weresigned.Bruneiisoneofthecountries,thathaveoverlappingclaimsintheSouthChinaSea,however,itisalsotheonlyclaimantthathasnotstationedtroopsinthearea,eliminatingthepossibilityoflimitedmilitaryconflictswithChina.Thissaid,itisworthmentioningthatChinahasconsistentlysoughttodealwiththerivalclaimsonbilateralbasis,ratherthanmultilaterally,andeco-74st,nomiccooperationisawaytodoit.Thus,onApril212016,inamovetodetachBruneiChina’sforeignminister,WangYi,offeredcooperationonin-frastructureconstructionandfinancialservices.ThesamedaytheHongKongunitofthestate-ownedBankofChinawouldopenabranchinBrunei.ItwasthefirsttimefortheChinesebanktoinvestinBrunei.AnotherstabilizingfactorintherelationsofbothcountriesisBrunei’sdependenceonhydrocar-75bons.ThereservesofhydrocarbonsinBruneiarevastyetdeclining.Since2014,theBrunei-GuangxiEconomicCorridorhasledtooverUS$500millioninjointinvestmentcommitmentstodevelopstrategicindustries.Moreagree-mentswillcomeinthecourseofMaritimeSilkRoadInitiativeimplementa-tion.ChinesecompanyZhejiangHengyiGroupisalreadyconstructinganew76refineryinBruneiwithacapacityof148,000barrelsperday.73ChinaDaily,XidiscussescooperationwithBruneisultan74TheEconomicIntelligenceUnit,BruneitakesabackseatinSouthChinaSeadispute75ForeignPolicy,Brunei,SilentClaimantintheSouthChinaSea76ChinaDaily,ChinesepetrochemicalcompanyannouncesinvestmenttoBrunei27 华东师范大学硕士学位论文ChinaandBruneidonothavealonghistoryofdiplomaticandeconomiccooperation,however,bothcountriesarewillingtoestablishclosertiesthroughinvestmentandinfrastructureprojects.DespitethefactthatBruneiisoneoftheclaimantsintheSouthChinaSea,thereisnoobvioushostilitybe-tweenthestates,whichcouldturnintoamilitarizedconflict.Sincethebeginningofofficialdiplomaticrelations,ChinaandASEANhaveestablishedafullrangeofdialogueandcooperationmechanismsinvolv-ingstateleaders,ministersandseniorofficialsfrombothsides.Upto2017,thetwosidesheldalotofmeetingsonvariousoccasionsandtopics.Throughdifferentchannels,ChinahasdevelopedextensivetieswiththeASEANcoun-triesonpoliticalandeconomicfronts.Atthesametime,Beijinghasbeenin-volvedinmaintainingcloserelationshipswiththememberstatesthatarein-volvedinterritorialdisputesintheSouthChinaSea.EachASEANstatehasauniquehistoryofeconomicanddiplomaticcooperationwithChina,however,territorialdisagreementswiththecountriessuchasIndonesia,thePhilippines,Malaysia,VietnamandBruneibringitsownspecificcharacteristicstothefu-tureofeconomicinteractionbetweenthementionedstatesandtheregioningeneral.Inourresearch,wewanttolookateconomiccooperationbetweencon-flictingstatesthroughaprismofdiplomaticrelationsduetotheirinseparablebond.Suchanalysiswillhelpusfindtheconnectionbetweenterritorialdis-putesandinvestmentdecisions,ifthereisany.GivennumbersshowthatChinaisnotdiscouragedfrominvestinginthecountriesinvolvedintheterri-torialdisputes.ItmeansthisparticularriskisnottheonlydeterminantofChina’sforeigndirectinvestment.Forinstance,evenduetothefactofhavingunresolveddisputeswithIndonesia,economiccooperationbetweentwocoun-triescontinuestogrowovertheyearswithunprecedentedspeed.Wecanseesimilartendencieswithotherstates-disputants.Intensifiedeconomiccooper-ationbetweenChinaandMalaysiaandreadinesstoresolvetheissuespeace-fullycouldimplythatthesetwocountrieswillhaveevenlessreasonstobeinvolvedinthemilitarizedconflict.WithChinabecomingthelargestinvestorinVietnam,thelatterchangesharshstatementstowardsChinaontheoverlap-pingclaimsintheSouthChinaSeaintheASEANJointStatement.ThisstudywillexaminetherelationbetweenpoliticalriskinASEANontheflowofChina’sFDI,inparticular,thelevelofconflictescalationintheregioninrelationtotheFDIflows.Giventhestrengthenedeconomicactivity28 华东师范大学硕士学位论文andunresolvedterritorialdisputesbetweenChinaandtheASEANmember-states,thisresearchwillilluminatethecorrelationbetweentwofactors.Inex-aminingthedeterminantsofCOFDIinASEAN,itisimportanttorecognize77thepossibilitythatrisingFDImayleadtolessconflict.Asaresult,weshouldbecautiousaboutassumingthatconflictdoesnotaffectFDImerelybecauseweseelowconflictandhighFDI.Thus,mythesisalsowilllookatthepossibilityofdualcausation.ChapterIII.ThemodelInthispaper,weresearchthemechanismthroughwhichFDIinfluencesinternationalrelations.FDIbringsbenefitstobothhomeandhostcountry.Ifthemulti-nationalcorporation’shome/hostcountrygovernmentinitiatescon-flictandifitresultsindecreasingFDIinflows,manygainsoftheforeigndi-rectinvestmentarelost.WearguethatinordertosecurethegainsofFDI,thegovernmentsofbothhostandhomecountrieswilldecreasethelevelofcon-flictandpromotepeaceandstabilityintherelationswitheachother.PreviousstudiesshowthatfirmsseemtorespondtoconflictbyreducingtradeandFDI,however,thepacifyingeffectoftheFDIhasnotbeenproventobethecase78yet.Hostcountrieshavegreatbenefitsfromforeigndirectinvestment.FDIgenerallytendstobringnewtechnologies,managementtechniquesandhumancapital.Foreigndirectinvestmentallowstransferoftechnology,anditcannot79beachievedthroughfinancialinvestmentsortradeingoodsandservices.Apartfromgainingtechnologicalinnovations,FDIpromotescompetitioninthedomesticinputmarket.Theworkersoftherecipientbusinessesreceivetraining,anditresultsinincreasedproductivity;moreover,trainingcouldben-efitlocalcompanies,iftheworkersswitchjobsinthefuture.Foreigndirectinvestmentalsocontributestohostcountries’fiscalrevenuesthroughcorpo-80ratetaxes.Undersuchcircumstances,onecouldcometoaconclusion,thatifthegovernmentsofeithersideinitiatesconflict,thebenefitsofforeigndirectinvestmentcouldbelost.Thus,wearguethatinordertosecurethegains,bothsideswillreduceconflictandpromotecooperation.77BennettandGreen“PoliticalInstabilityasaDeterminantofDirectForeignInvestment”;LeeandMitchell“ForeignDirectInvestmentandTerritorialDisputes”78LiandSacko“(IR)RelevanceofMilitarisedInterstateDisputesforInternationalTrade”79OECD,ForeignDirectInvestmentfordevelopment80Ibid.29 华东师范大学硕士学位论文Giventhat,wedesignedthefollowinghypothesesanddefineddepend-entandindependentvariables.Part3.1.DataandvariablesInouranalysis,weassesstheimpactofindependentvariablesontheannualflowsofChineseforeigndirectinvestmentintotheAssociationoftheSoutheastAsianNations.Inthisstudy,weusedregressionanalysistounder-standwhichamongtheindependentvariablesarerelatedtothedependentvar-iable,andtoexploretheformsoftheserelationships.Ourchoiceofindepend-entvariablesisanoutcomeofresearchingotherstudiesonimpactofpoliticalrisksonforeigndirectinvestmentinflows.Theanalysiscomprisestheperiod2006to2016fordataofChina’sFDIand10member-statesoftheAssociationoftheSoutheastAsianNations,becauseinvestmentagreementwassignedin2009,thatsubstantiallyliberalizedandenhancedeconomiccooperationbe-tweentwosides.Moreover,2011wastheyearwhendiscussionofterritorialdisputesintheSouth-EastAsiastartedappearingmoreoftenthaninthepre-viousyears.Having11yearscoveredinouranalysiswillgiveusabroadpic-tureofeconomicandpoliticalrelationsdevelopmentbetweenChinaandASEANcountries.Inthefollowingsection,wewillintroduceourdependentandindependentvariablesandthereasoningbehindourchoice.Part3.2.DependentvariableCHINA’SFDIINASEANAsthedatasourceforourdependentvariableweuseddatasetof2006and2016StatisticalBulletinofChina’sOutwardForeignDirectInvestmentprovidedbyMinistryofCommerceofthePeople’sRepublicofChina(MOFCOM)toobserveannualflowsofChina’sforeigndirectinvestmentinto81ASEANcountries.AsThe2017StatisticalBulletinofChina’sOutwardFor-eignDirectInvestmenthasnotbeenpublishedyet,2016isthelastyearwiththeavailabledataforourresearch.COFDIstatisticshavemajorlimitationslikeoff-shoringandround-trip-ping.Thestop-overdestinationslikeHongKongandislandsintheCaribbeanmaybethereasonofstatisticsdistortion.MOFCOMrequiresregistrationonlyofthefirstdestinationofthecross-bordertransaction,thefinaloneremainsunknown.ASEANstatsisanotherpossiblesourceforcollectinginformation81MinistryofCommerce,People’sRepublicofChina30 华东师范大学硕士学位论文onChina’sFDIinflowstotheSoutheastAsiancountries.However,westicktothedatasetprovidedbyMOFCOM.Despitetheirlimitations,MOFCOM’sFDIstatisticsarecollectedinaccordancewithOECDdefinitionsandtheIMF’sbalanceofpaymentsguidelines,andtheirfiguresremainthemostwidelyobservedFDIstatistics.Part3.3.IndependentvariablesPOLITICALRISKOneofthemostimportantdeterminantsofforeigndirectinvestment.Thehomecountrydoesnothaveanincentivetoinvestifthehostcountry’s82regimeisunstable.LeeandMitchellmentionthat“countriesarefrequentlyaskedtoprovidetheenvironmentsformultinationalcorporationstomake83profitsbydirectinvestment”.GartzkeandLiclaim“firmsshouldweightherisksofinvestmentmuchmoreheavilythantrade”because“foreignproduc-84tionfacilitiesarevulnerabletonationalizationinawaythattradeisnot”.Itmeansthatforeigndirectinvestmentismuchmoredependentonpoliticalsta-bilitythantrade.Becauseconflictandcooperationpotentiallyaffectamulti-nationals’investmentbehaviorandhenceforeigndirectinvestment,itmakessensetoexplorewhetherFDIisdependentonpoliticalinteractions.Ourdataanalysisisbasedonthemeasurementofgovernmenteffective-ness,regulatoryquality,ruleoflawandcontrolofcorruption.Thedatarangevariesfrom0to1,where0correspondstotheabsenceofpoliticalrisksinthecountryinagivenyear,and1indicatesunfriendlyenvironmentforbusinessesandinvestors.Weintentionallydidnotincludethemeasurementofpoliticalstabilityandabsenceofviolence,aswecreatedourownscaletoassessthelevelofpoliticalstabilitybetweenChinaandASEANcountriesexplainedinthedefinitionofthenextvariable.ThisdatasetisprovidedbythePRSGroup.Hypothesis1:PoliticalriskintheASEANdoesnotaffectChina’sFDIinflowsintheASEANcountriesinanegativeway.TERRITORIALDISPUTES82RosencranceandThompson“Trade,foreigninvestment,andsecurity”83LeeandMitchell“ForeignDirectInvestmentandTerritorialDisputes”84GartzkeandLi“InvestinginthePeace:EconomicInterdependenceandInternationalConflict”31 华东师范大学硕士学位论文Anexplanationforthepacifyingeffectofforeigndirectinvestmentisbasedontheorythatthebenefitsofterritorialaggressiondecreaseascountries85getengagedinincreasedeconomicexchange,trade,andinvestment.In-creasesinmutualFDIflowsreducethechancesforregionalconflictsbecausethestatesgainmorebenefitsfrompeacefulcooperationandstability.Territo-rialdisputesbetweenstatescouldreducetheFDIflows,andtheeffectcouldbedetrimentaltothedevelopingcountriesthatareinneedofeconomicen-gagement.Inourwork,wehavetodeterminehowincreaseofFDIinonecountrymightinfluencethehome/hostcountry’sdecisiontochangeforeignpolicyto-wardeachother.Therefore,toexplainthedependencybetweenconflictreso-lutionprocessandinvestmentbehaviorofChineseinvestorsintheASEANmember-states,weareanalyzinghostcountry-specificlevelofpoliticalrisk,consideringterritorialdisputesbetweenChinaandeachoftheASEANcoun-tryonadyadiclevel.Wecanassumethatforeigndirectinvestmentmightbelinkedtohome/hoststates’decisionstoinitiate/resolvegeopoliticalissues;thus,FDIcouldbeareasontobringthestates’politicaltiesclosertogether.Theforeigndirectinvestmenthasapotentialinfluencewhenitcomestobilateralcooperationwiththestatesthathavefrequentinteraction.Foreignaidservestopromotesimilarityofstates’UNvotingpatterns,movingnondemo-86craticleadersinthedirectionofvotingwithdemocraticdonors.Foreigndi-rectinvestmentcouldhaveasimilareffectonthechangesintheforeignpolicy.FDIinflowsinthecountrymightchangetheimageofcitizens,businesses,andgovernments(LeeandMitchell).Thistendencyiseasiertoobserveoverlongerperiodsoftimeandonbilaterallevel.ToassesstheimpactofpoliticalrisksinASEANontheflowofChina’sFDI,wecreatedanewdatabasethatcoversthepoliticalrisk,territorialdis-putesinparticular,onadyadiclevel.Thisdatasetisbasedoncoverageofthearticlesfrommajornewsplatforms,includingChinaDaily,XinhuaNews,SouthChinaMorningPost,TheNewYorkTimes,FinancialTimes,ForeignPolicy,Bloombergandothersintheperiodfrom2006to2016.Wemarked85Rosencrance“TheRiseiftheVirtualState”;Brooks“ProducingSecurity:MultinationalCorporations,Globalisation,andtheChangingCalculusofConflict”86LaiandMorey“TheImpactofRegimeTypeontheInfluenceofU.S.ForeignAid”32 华东师范大学硕士学位论文thestatementsasnegativeiftheyconsistwordcombinationssuchas:“claim-ingterritory”,“militaryexercises”,“notlegal”,“blame”andothers,whilethenewsissueswiththewordcombinationslike“commonposition”,“support”,“peacefulresolution”weremarkedaspositiveones.Intheassessmentprocess,weusedthePRSscale,where0representsnoriskinagivenyearandcountry,and1indicatesahighlevelofpoliticalriskbycountingthecoefficientofgiveneventsmentionedinthenews.Hypothesis2:TerritorialdisputesbetweenChinaandmember-statesoftheASEANdonothaveasignificantnegativeimpactonChina’sflowofFDI.BILATERALSENIORVISITSDiplomacyisanimportantcomponentofinternationalrelations.Friendlydiplomaticinteractionwillhaveapositiveinfluenceoninvestmentflowsandbusinessenvironment,thereforeitcanhaveabigimpactoninves-tor’sdecisiontoinvestinonecountry.IntheanalysisoftheimpactofdiplomacyonChina’sFDIusenumberofbilateralseniorvisitsasoneofthevariablesthatdefinediplomaticrelations87betweenChinaandothercountries.OneofthemainobjectivesofChina’sdiplomacyistocreatepositiveenvironmentforeconomiccooperationthrougheconomicdiplomacy.Homecountry’spoliticalinfluenceonthehostcountryisanimportantwaytogainbusinessleverageinthehostcountry.Atthesametime,bilateralseniorvisitscanbeabaseforapositiveinstitutionalarrange-mentforthehomecountry’sMNEs.Itcanalsobeconsideredasasignalforthepotentialinvestorsthattheycantrustthehostcountryandawaytoavoidpoliticalrisk.Ifthehomegovernmentprefersonecountry,thenumberofbi-lateralvisitswillincrease,moreover,itwillsendapositiveagreenlighttotheinvestors,andmoreinvestmentwillflowtothatcountry.SimilareffectcanbeexpectedfromChinaandASEANcountries,wheredespitetheconflictin-creaseddiplomaticinteractionmightattractmoreinvestorstothatcountry.WecollecteddataonnumberofbilateralseniorvisitsfromtheofficialwebsiteofMinistryofForeignAffairsofthePeople’sRepublicofChina.Eachforeigncountryhasalistofofficialactivitiesincludingbilateraldiplo-maticinteractionbetweenChinaandthatparticularcountry.WecreatedaspreadsheetmarkingalldiplomaticexchangeactivitiesbetweenChinaand87Zhang“Diplomacyandinvestment–thecaseofChina”33 华东师范大学硕士学位论文SoutheastAsiancountriesfrom2006to2016.Inordertolistanyactivityasaseniorbilateralvisit,weexcludefromourcountmeetingsofambassadorsfromeitherChineseorSoutheastAsiansideaswellasmeetingsbetweenas-sistantministers,becausewebelievethataforementionedmeetingsdonotre-flectthetoppriorityconcerns.Giventhisinformation,wecreatedascalefrom0to1,where0indicatestheabsenceofdiplomaticactivitiesbetweenChinaandaparticularcountry,and1signifiesthemaximumnumberofbilateralvisitsintheSoutheastAsianregion.Hypothesis3:HighernumberofbilateralseniorvisitsbetweenChinaandanASEANcountryhasasignificantpositiveaffectontheannualinvest-mentflowintothatcountry.Withthisdata,wehavethreeindependentvariablestoanalyzetheim-pactofpoliticalvariablesontheflowofChina’sforeigndirectinvestment.Part3.4.ControlvariablesGDPToreceiveabroadpictureofChina’sforeigndirectinvestmentflowintoASEAN,itisnecessarytoincludeeconomicvariablesinouranalysis.GDPisusedtocapturehostcountrymarketsize.ManyresearchersfindthatcountrieswithalargermarketattractmoreFDI.Largermarketscreatemoreopportuni-tiesfortheefficientutilizationofresourcesandeconomicbenefits.Thisistheonlyeconomicindicator,thatweuseinouranalysis.Itwillhelpusprove,thatpoliticalriskdoesnotsignificantlydistractChinesebusinessesfrominvestingintoSoutheastAsia,thusmarket-seekingdeterminantisprevailing.Forouranalysis,dataforGDPoftheASEANcountrieswascollectedfromtheWorldBank.Hypothesis4:BiggerGDPofanASEANcountryhasasignificantpos-itiveeffectontheannualinvestmentflowsintothatcountry.GNIGrossNationalIncomepercapitaisconsideredtobeoneofthemost88importantfactorsinexplainingforeigninvestment.Thesizeofaparticular88Chakrabarti“Thedeterminantsofforeigndirectinvestment:Sensitivityanalysesofcross-countryregressions”34 华东师范大学硕士学位论文marketmayindicatetheattractivenessofacertainlocationfortheinvestment,inthecasethatthemultinationalcorporationaimstoproduceforthelocalmarket(BusseandHefeker,2005).HighGNIgrowthratesmaysignalhighinvestmentreturnsand,hence,mayattractfurtherinvestment.Thedataispro-videdbytheWorldBank.Hypothesis5:BiggerGrossNationalIncomepercapitaofanASEANcountryhasasignificantpositiveeffectontheannualinvestmentflowsintothatcountry.OPENNESSTOTRADEAnotherdeterminantthatislikelytohaveanimpactonFDIisopennesstotrade,usuallymeasuredbytheratioofimportsandexportstoGDP.This89ratioisofteninterpretedasaquantificationoftraderestrictions.Theimpact90ofopennesstotradeislinkedtothetypeofforeigninvestment.Market-seekingforeigndirectinvestment,forinstance,maybeattractedbyhighertradebarriers,becausetheyprotecttheoutputoftheforeigninvestorinthelocalmarketagainstimportofcompetitors.Atthesametime,multinationalswithexport-orientedinvestmentmayfavourinvestinginarelativelyopeneconomy,astradebarriersincreasetransactioncosts.Thedataisprovidedby91theWorldBankdatabase.Hypothesis6:OpennesstotradeofanASEANmemberstatehasasig-nificantpositiveeffectontheannualinvestmentflowfromChinaintothatcountry.INFLATIONTheattractionofacertainmarketdependsonwhetheracountryhasaconsistentmacroeconomicpolicyinplace.Apartfromboostinggrowthrates,agoodmacroeconomicpolicyislikelytoreducetheriskforforeigninvest-ment,decreasetransactioncosts,andmayevenboostFDI.Asameasureforvariousformsofmacroeconomicimbalances,weaddedtheinflationrate,asitcanbeexpectedtobecloselylinkedtoarangeofformsofpolicydistortions,89Gastanaga,NugentandPashamova“HostCountryReformsandFDIinflows:HowMuchDifferencedotheyMake?”90Asiedu“OntheDeterminantsofForeignDirectInvestmenttoDevelopingCountries”91WorldBankOpenData35 华东师范大学硕士学位论文92suchasfiscalormonetaryimbalances.ThedataisprovidedbytheWorld93Bankdatabase.Hypothesis7:HighinflationrateofanASEANcountryhasasignificantnegativeimpactontheannualflowofChina’sFDI.Withthisbackground,weusefourcontrolvariablesinouranalysis:GrossDomesticProduct(GDP)percapita,GrossNationalIncome(GNI)percapita,opennesstotradeandinflation.WeassumethatthefirstfourvariableswillbepositivelyassociatedwithFDIinflows.Part3.5.CalculationsandresultsProceedingfromtheabove-mentioned,wesuggestthefollowinglinearmultipleregressionmodel.y=�$+�'�'+�)�)+⋯�+�++�Where:(1)yisthedependentvariable,inourcase,theflowofChina’soutwardintoASEANcountries;(2)xaretheindependentorcontrolvariables.Inouranalysis,wehave7independentvariables:politicalrisk(POLITICAL),territorialdisputes(DISPUTES),bilateralseniorvisits(VISITS),GDP,GNI,opennesstotrade(OPENNESS)andinflation;(3)Eistheerror;(4)�$istheunknownparameter.BasedonthedatapresentedinthecorrelationmatrixintheFigure1,wecouldconcludethattherelationbetweenourdependentvariableFDIandin-dependentvariablesPOLITICAL,VISITS,GDP,GNIandOPENNESSispositive.TherelationbetweenFDIandthevariableDISPUTESisnotasstrongasweexpected.92BusseandHefeker“PoliticalRisk,Institutions,andForeignDirectInvestment”;Aizen-man“Volatility,EmploymentandthePatternsofFDIinEmergingMarkets”;Easterly“Na-tionalPoliciesandEconomicGrowth:AReappraisal”93WorldBankOpenData36 华东师范大学硕士学位论文Figure1.Correlationmatrix.Source:author’scalculationsIntheregressionanalysis,themultipleRsignifieshowstrongthelinearrelationshipis,anditsvalue0.572showsthattherelationshipbetweenthedependentandindependentvariablesisquitepositive.TheR-squareandad-justedR-squareofthemodelare0.327and0.281,respectively,forthistestingofChineseOFDI,suggestingthattheoverallexplanatorypowerofthemodelisnotverystrong.Figure2.Finalregressionresults.Source:author’scalculationsBelowwestudytheeffectofeachindependentvariableontheflowofChina’soutwardforeigndirectinvestmentintheASEANcountries.POLITICALRISKThecoefficientofPOLITICALhast-statisticof-2.0123andp-valueof0.0468.Itisthereforestatisticallysignificantatsignificancelevela=.05asp<0.05.ItmeansthatpoliticalriskintheASEANcountrieshasanegativeimpactontheflowofChina’sFDI.Ourhypothesiswasnotconfirmed.37 华东师范大学硕士学位论文TERRITORIALDISPUTESThecoefficientofDISPUTEShast-statisticof1.3367andp-valueof0.1842.Itmeansthatterritorialdisputesdonotnecessarilyhavenegativeef-fectonChina’sflowofOFDI.Ourhypothesisisconfirmed.BILATERALSENIORVISITSThecoefficientofVISITShast-statisticof0.0776andp-valueof0.0402.Atsignificancelevela=.05itisstatisticallysignificantasp<0.05.ItmeansthatbilateralseniorvisitshaveapositiveeffectonChina’sforeigndi-rectinvestmenttothemember-statesofASEAN.Ourhypothesiswascon-firmed.GDPThecoefficientofGDPhast-statisticof-0.9233andp-value0.3579,andwithsignificancelevela=.05,GDPdoesnothaveasignificantpositiveeffectontheflowofChina’sFDItothetestedsetofcountries.Ourhypothesiswasnotconfirmed.GNIThecoefficientofGNIhast-statisticof1.5416andp-value0.1262.Atsignificancelevela=.05itisstatisticallyinsignificantasp>0.05.ItmeansthatGNIdoesnothaveasignificantpositiveeffectonChina’sflowofforeigndirectinvestment.Ourhypothesiswasnotconfirmed.OPENNESSTOTRADEThecoefficientofOPENNESShast-statistic2.6255andp-value0.0099.TheresultsshowthatopennesstotradehasasignificantpositiveeffectonChina’soutwardforeigndirectinvestment,thus,ourhypothesiswascon-firmed.INFLATIONThecoefficientofINFLATIONhast-statistic0.9955andp-value0.3218.ItmeansthatinflationrateintheASEANcountrieshasapositiveimpactonChina’sFDI,however,itisnotstatisticallysignificant.Thus,ourhypothesiswasnotconfirmed.Part3.6.DiscussionTheresultsoftheanalysisshow,thatbilateralseniorvisitsandopennesstotradehavesignificanteffectonthesizeofChineseinvestmentcomingintotheASEANcountries.38 华东师范大学硕士学位论文Despiteourexpectations,GDPoftheASEANmember-statesisnotanimportantfactorininvestmentflowsintotheregion.Moreover,GNIpercapitadoesnothaveasignificanteffectonFDIeither.ThiscouldbeexplainedbyimplementationoftheBelt&RoadInitiative,asinattempttoconnectthein-frastructuresystemoftheregion,economicdeterminantsoftheforeigndirectinvestmentarelessimportant.Thus,inflationratedoesnothaveasignificanteffectonFDI.AnothereconomicindicatoropennesstotradehasshowntohaveapositiveimpactontheflowCOFDI.ASEAN-ChinaFreeTradeAgree-ment(ACFTA)wassignedmuchearlierthanthelastbilateralinvestmenttrea-tieswiththeASEANmember-states.Thisfactcouldserveasanexplanationtothepositiveeffectofthisvariable.Ourdatademonstratedthatpoliticalfactors,suchasbilateralseniorvis-itsbetweenChinaandmembersoftheASEANhaveapositiveeffectontheflowofforeigndirectinvestmentfromChina.In2012,China’sdiplomaticcooperationwiththeSouth-EastAsiancountriessignificantlyintensified,anditfollowedtheincreaseineconomiccooperationinvariousfields.WehavealsotestedtheimpactofpoliticalriskandterritorialdisputesbetweenChinaandASEANcountries,andtheresultshaveshownthatwhilepoliticalrisk(thatconsistsofmostlyinternalfactors)hasanegativeeffectontheinvest-mentprocess,territorialdisputesdonotdiscouragepotentialinvestorsfromChina.Thestatisticalresultswerenotsignificantenoughtoprovethepositivetendency,however,webelievethatweneedmoretimetoobservethisphe-nomenoninordertomakemoreclearconclusionsontheissue.ConclusionThemainpurposeofthispaperwastoexaminetheimportanceofpo-liticalriskonChina’sOFDItotheAssociationoftheSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN),consideringtheirbackgroundofpoliticalandeconomiccoopera-tionandcontrollingforsomeotherrelevantdeterminantsofobservedchangesinFDIflows.Morespecifically,theeffectsofpoliticalstability,governmenteffectiveness,regulatoryquality,ruleoflaw,corruption,externalconflict,andinvestmentprofileareexamined.Previousstudiesdonotallowustoassumethatpoliticalriskincreasestheflowsofforeigninvestment,moreover,wecanseetheoppositerelation-shipbetweentwovariables.Thepurposeofourstudywastocomplementpre-viousstudiesbyprovingthatpoliticalrisk(oritsseparatecomponents)can39 华东师范大学硕士学位论文actuallyincreasetheflowofforeigndirectinvestmentandusingtheconcreteexampleofChinaandtheASEANcountries.Forinstance,overthepastfewyearssomemember-statesofASEANwereinvolvedinterritorialdisputeswithChina.Atthesametime,thoseparticularcountrieshaveexperiencedarapidgrowthofforeigndirectinvestmentcomingfromChina.Underthesecircumstances,wecannotclaimthat,politicalriskistheonlydeterminantforChina’sFDIandnottakeintoaccounteconomicfactors,suchas:GDP,marketgrowth,tradeopennessandothers.Thequestionswearetryingtoanswerare:howpoliticalriskaffectstheforeigndirectinvestmentfromChinaandwhethereconomicinterestdeterminesthedecisionofChineseinvestors.WeneedfurtheranalysistodiscoverthenatureofcorrelationbetweenpoliticalriskintheASEANandChina’sOFDItothatregion.Inourpaper,weattempttoexplaininwhatwaypoliticalriskinfluenceChineseforeigndirectinvestmentintheASEANcountriesbyanalyzingasetofpoliticalandeconomicvariablesandtheireffectontheannualChinesein-vestmentflowsintotheASEANcountries.Theresultsofourempiricalanal-ysisshowthateconomicvariables–GDP,GNI,andinflationdonothaveasignificantimpactonthesizeofChineseinvestmentflowsintothesecountries.Thesefindingsarenotinlinewithourexpectationsbasedonfindingsofotherauthors,whoclaimthatmarketsizeofthehostcountryisasignificantdeter-minantifChineseoutwardinvestment.Atthesametime,opennesstotradeseemtohaveapositiveimpactoninvestmentrelationsbetweenChinaandtheASEAN.ItcouldbeexplainedbytheASEAN-ChinaFreeTradeAgreementthatwassignedearlierthanothertreatiesestablishingeconomiccooperationbetweenstates.TheresultsofouranalysisalsoshowthatgoodpoliticalrelationscausedbythenumberofbilateralseniorvisitshavesignificantpositiveimpactontheannualflowsofChineseinvestmentintothementionedcountries.Anotherpo-liticalindicator,territorialdisputesbetweenChinaandASEANmember-states,doesnotseemtohavenegativeinfluenceontheinvestmentcomingfromChina.Atthesametime,politicalriskthatmostlyconsistsofinternalfactors,suchas:governmentstability,investmentprofile,levelofcorruption,lawandorder,institutionalstrengthandqualityofbureaucracyetc.,provedtodiscouragetheChineseinvestorsfromcooperatingwiththeASEANcountries.TheimplicationsofourfindingsforthecountriesoftheAssociationoftheSouth-EastAsianNationsarethattheeconomicparametersofthehost40 华东师范大学硕士学位论文countryarenotimportantdeterminantsofChineseinvestmentinflowsintothecountry.Therefore,ifacountrywantstoattractmoreChineseinvestment,itisimportantthatitsleadersworkonthebuildingofstableandfriendlyrela-tionswithChina.Improvedrelationsandintensivehigh-levelpoliticalex-changesareasignoftrustworthinessforthepotentialinvestorsinthehomecountry.TheinvestmentflowsChinaandtheASEANcountriescanreachnewheights,especiallywhenChinesegovernmentandinvestorsshowtheten-dencyofnotbeingdiscouragedbytheterritorialissuesintheregionandpur-suebettereconomiccooperationandpeaceintheregion.Ourresearchhasitslimitations,suchasusingaggregatedataonChineseinvestmentintheASEANregion,asthesestatisticspublishedinStatisticalBulletinofChina’sOutwardForeignDirectInvestmentmightbeslightlydis-tortedbytheround-trippingandoffshoringofChineseoutboundinvestment.Anotherlimitationisthetimeframechosenfortheanalysis.Despitethefactthatitisquitebroad,webelievethatresearchinthefollowingfewyearswillbringmoreinterestinginsightsintoChineseforeigndirectinvestmentintheregion.41 华东师范大学硕士学位论文ReferencesAcademicresourcesinEnglishlanguage1.Acharya,A.,SeekingSecurityintheDragon’sShadow:ChinaandSoutheastAsiaintheEmergingAsianOrder//InstituteofDefenceandStrategicStudies,20032.Aizenman,J.,Volatility,EmploymentandthePatternsofFDIinEmergingMarkets//JournalofDevelopmentEconomics,Vol.72,No.2,pp.585-601,20033.Alon,I.GlobalisationofChineseFirms:TheoreticalUniversal-ismorParticularism//ManagementandOrganisationReview,pp.191-200,20114.Amer,R.,AssessingSino-VietnameseRelations//ContemporarySoutheastAsia,Vol.22,No.2,pp.320-345,20065.Aplianta,D.,Indonesia’sResponseintheSouthChinaSeaDis-putes//MinistryoftheForeignAffairs,20156.Asiedu,E.,OntheDeterminantsofForeignDirectInvestmenttoDevelopingCountries//WorldDevelopment,Vol.30,No.1,pp.107-119,2002st7.Ba,A.,ChinaandASEAN:RenavigatingRelationsfora21-CenturyAsia//AsianSurvey,Vol.43,No.4,pp.622-647,20038.Ba,A.,Who’sSocializingWhom?ComplexEngagementinSino-ASEANRelations//ThePacificReview,Vol.19,No.2,pp.157-179,20059.Bauer,RaymondA.,TheStructureofPerceivedRisk//HarvardUniversityPress,pp.22-33,196710.Bennet,PeterD.,RobertT.Green,PoliticalInstabilityasaDe-terminantofDirectForeignInvestment//JournalofMarketingResearch,197211.Brewer,T.L.,PoliticalRiskAssessmentforForeignDirectIn-vestmentDecisions:BetterMethodsforBetterResults//ColumbiaJournalofWorldBusiness,Vol.16,198112.Brooks,S.,ProducingSecurity:MultinationalCorporations,Globalisation,andtheChangingCalculusofConflict//JournalofConflictResolution,Vol.43,No.5,pp.646-70,199913.Buckley,P.J.,CleggL.J.,Cross,A.R.andH.Voss,EmergingCountries//ColumbiaUniversity,200814.Busse,M.,HefekerC.,PoliticalInstitutionsandForeignDirectInvestment//HWWADiscussionPaper,200542 华东师范大学硕士学位论文15.Busse,M.,Hefeker,C.,PoliticalRisk,InstitutionsandForeignDirectInvestment//HamburgInstituteofInternationalEconomicsDiscussionPaper,p.315,200516.Busse,Matthias,andCarstenHefeker,PoliticalRisk,InstitutionsandForeignDirectInvestment//EuropeanJournalofPoliticalEconomy,Vol.23,pp.397-415,200717.Bussmann,M.,Foreigndirectinvestmentandmilitarizedinter-nationalconflict//JournalofPeaceResearch,Vol.47,No.2,pp.143-153,201018.Campos,NauroandJeffreyNugent,Whoisafraidofpoliticalin-stability?//JournalofDevelopmentEconomics,Vol.67,No.1,200219.Cardoza,G.,Fornes,G.,Li,P.,Xu,N.,Xu,S.,Chinagoesglobal:publicpolicies’influenceonsmall-andmedium-sizedenterprises’interna-tionalexpansion//AsiaPacificBusinessReview,pp.188-210,201420.Chakrabarti,A.,Thedeterminantsofforeigndirectinvestment:Sensitivityanalysesofcross-countryregressions//Kyklos,Vol.54,No.1,pp.89-114,200121.Chan,Gerald,ChinaEyesASEAN:EvolvingMultilateralism//JournalofAsianSecurityandInternationalAffairs,201522.Daniele,V.,andMarani,U.,ThequalityoflocalinstitutionsandFDI//EuropeanJournalofPoliticalEconomy,201023.Desbordes,R.Globalanddiplomaticpoliticalrisksandforeigndirectinvestment//Economics&Politics,Vol.22,pp.92-125,201024.Dutta,N.,Roy,S.,ForeignDirectInvestment,FinancialDevel-opmentandPoliticalRisks//TheJournalofDevelopmentAreas,Vol.44,No.2,pp.303-327,201725.Easterly,W.,NationalPoliciesandEconomicGrowth:AReap-praisal//NewYorkUniversity,199726.Gartzke,E.,Li,Q.,InvestinginthePeace:EconomicInterde-pendenceandInternationalConflict//InternationalOrganisation,pp.391-438,200127.Gartzke,E.,Li,Q.,MeasureforMeasure:ConceptOperationali-sationandtheTradeInterdependence-ConflictDebate//JournalofPeaceRe-search,Vol.40,No.5,pp.553-571,200828.Gastanaga,V.,JeffreyNugent,BistraPashamova,HostCountryReformsandFDIInflows:HowMuchDifferencedotheyMake?//WorldDevelopmentVol.26,No.7,pp.1299-1314,199829.Getz,KethleenandRogerJ.Volkema,PerceptionsofCountryCorruption//BusinessandSociety,200130.Goh,E.,MeetingtheChinaChallenge:TheU.S.inSoutheastAsianRegionalSecurityStrategies//PolicyStudies,200531.Goh,E.,Singapore’sReactiontoaRisingChina:DeepEngage-mentandStrategicAdjustment//ChinaandSoutheastAsia,pp.307-327,200843 华东师范大学硕士学位论文32.Habib,M.,Zurawicki,L.,CorruptionandForeignDirectInvest-ment//JournalofInternationalStudies,200233.Haftel,Y.Z.,RegionalIntegration,SignalingandForeignDirectInvestment:TheCaseofASEAN//InternationalStudiesAssociation,200634.Hayes,Brian,RiskAnalysisandManagement//HarvardBusi-nessReview,197135.Hurst,L.,ComparativeAnalysisoftheDeterminantsofChina’sState-ownedOutwardDirectInvestmentinOECDandNon-OECDCountries//China&WorldEconomy,Vol.19,No.4,pp.74-91,201136.Jensen,N.,PoliticalRisk,DemocraticInstitutions,andForeignDirectInvestment//JournalofPolitics,Vol.70,No.4,p.13,200837.Jun,KwangandHarinderSingh,TheDeterminantsofForeignDirectInvestmentinDevelopingCountries//TransnationalCorporations,Vol.5,No.2,pp.67-105,199638.Kang,Yuanfei,andFumingJiang,FDIlocationchoiceofChi-nesemultinationalsinEastandSoutheastAsia:Traditionaleconomicfactorsandinstitutionalperspectives//JournalofWorldBusiness,201639.Kant,Immanuel,PerpetualPeace,179540.Khan,MashrurMustaque,MashfiqueIbneAkbar,TheImpactofPoliticalRiskonForeignDirectInvestment//MPRAPaper,201341.Kostad,Ivar,andArneWiig,WhatDeterminesChineseOutwardFDI?//CMIWorkingPapers,200942.Krifa-Schneider,Hadjila,BusinessClimate,PoliticalRiskandFDIinDevelopingCountries:EvidencefromPanelData//InternationalJour-nalofEconomicsandFinance,201043.Ku,S.,Indonesia’sRelationswithChinaandTaiwan:FromPol-iticstoEconomics//AsianPerspective,Vol.26,No.4,pp.227-256,200244.Lai,B.,Morey,D.,TheImpactofRegimeTypeontheInfluenceofU.S.ForeignAid//JournalofPeaceResearch,Vol.54,No.6,pp.687-714,200645.Lee,C.,Politicalrisks,terrorism,andforeigndirectinvestment//MidwestPoliticalScienceAssociation,201146.Lee,Hoon,andSarahMcLaughlinMitchell,ForeignDirectIn-vestmentandTerritorialDisputes//SAGE,201247.Leong,H.,Ku,S.,ChinaandSoutheastAsia:GlobalChangesandRegionalChallenges//InstituteofSoutheastAsianStudies,pp.211-227,200548.Leong,S.,MalaysiaandPeople’sRepublicofChinainthe1980s:PoliticalVigilanceandEconomicPragmatism//AsianSurvey,Vol.27,No.10,198749.Li,Q.,Democracy,Autocracy,andTaxIncentivestoForeignDi-rectInvestors:ACross-NationalAnalysis//JournalofPolitics,Vol.68,No.1,pp.62-74,200644 华东师范大学硕士学位论文50.Li,Q.,Sacko,D.,(IR)RelevanceofMilitarisedInterstateDis-putesforInternationalTrade//InternationalStudiesQuarterly,Vol.46,No.1,pp.11-44,200251.Liow,T.,StrategicandSecurityPatternsinMalaysia’sRelationswithChina//People’sRepublicofChina,CountryTradeReport,pp.288-28952.Lum,T.,Niksch,L.,TheRepublicofPhilippines:Background//CRSReportforCongress,200653.Mansfield,EdwardD.,DemocratizationandtheDangerofWar//WorldPolitics,pp.575-605,199554.Martin,P.,ThierryMayer,andMathiasThoenig,MakeTradeNotWar?//TheReviewofEconomicStudies,Vol.75,pp.865-900,200855.Mauro,Paolo,CorruptionandCompositionofForeignDirectIn-vestment//TheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,Vol.110,No.3,199556.McDonald,PatrickJ.,PeacethroughTradeorFreeTrade?//TheJournalofConflictResolution,Vol.48,No.4,pp.547-577,200457.Oneal,J.andRussett,B.,AssessingtheLiberalPeacewithAlter-nativeSpecifications:TradeStillReducesConflict”//JournalofPeaceRe-search,pp.423-442,199958.Polacheck,S.W.,ConflictandTrade//JournalofConflictReso-lution,Vol.24,pp.55-78,198059.Polacheck,S.W.,JohnRobst,andYuan-ChingChang,Liberal-ismandInterdependence:ExtendingtheTrade-ConflictModel//JournalofPeaceResearch,Vol.36,pp.405-422,199960.Ramasamy,B.,China’soutwardforeigndirectinvestment:Loca-tionchoiceandfirmownership//JournalofWorldBusiness,Vol.47,pp.17-25,201261.Robertson,C.J.,Watson,A.,CorruptionandChange:TheImpactofForeignDirectInvestment//StrategicManagementJournal,200462.Rosencrance,R.,PeterThompson,Trade,foreigninvestment,andsecurity//DepartmentofPoliticalScience,200363.Sermcheep,S.,OutwardForeignDirectInvestmentinASEAN//ISEAS,201764.Shambaugh,D.,ChinaEngagesAsia:ReshapingtheRegionalOrder//InternationalSecurity,Vol.29,No.3,pp.64-99,200565.Sohn,Chan-Hyun,TheNatureofFDICompetitioninEastAsia:Crowding-outorCrowding-in?//KangwonNationalUniversity,201466.Tarzi,S.,Foreigndirectinvestmentflowsintodevelopingcoun-tries:impactoflocationandgovernmentpolicy//JournalofSocial,PoliticalandEconomicStudies,Vol.30,pp.497-515,200567.Tennesson,S.,Sino-VietnameseRapprochementandtheSouthChinaSeaIrritant//SecurityDialogues,Vol.34,No.1,pp.55-70,200368.Wang,G.,ChinaandSoutheastAsia:ChangesinStrategicPer-ceptions//ChinaandSoutheastAsia,pp.3-14,200545 华东师范大学硕士学位论文69.Wang,M.Y.,ThemotivationsbehindChinesegovernment-initi-atedindustrialinvestmentsoverseas//PacificAffairs,Vol.75,pp.187-206,200270.Wei,Shang-Jin,HowTaxingisCorruptiononInternationalIn-vestors?//ReviewofEconomicsandStatistics,Vol.82,No.1,pp.1-11,200071.Xiao,J.,ThechallengesfacingoutboundChineseM&A//Inter-nationalFinancialLawReview,Vol.24,pp.44-46,200572.Yuan,J.,China-ASEANrelations:perspectives,prospectsandimplicationsforU.S.interests//StrategicStudiesInstitute,200673.Yuan,J.,China-ASEANRelations:Perspectives,ProspectsandImplicationsforU.S.Interests//StrategicStudiesInstitute,200674.Yuan,N.,OwnershipStructureofChineseSME’sandtheChal-lengesItPresentstoTheirGrowth//Sprouts,200775.Zhang,J.,Diplomacyandinvestment–thecaseofChina//Inter-nationalJournalofEmergingMarket,2014InternetresourcesinEnglishlanguage76.ASEAN,Overview–source:http://asean.org/asean/about-asean/history/77.ASEANstats,ASEANTradeandInvestment–source:http://www.aseanstats.org/wp-content/up-loads/2017/08/ASEAN_trade_and_investment.pdf78.AsiaTimes,MalaysiaspeakssoftlyintheSouthChinaSea–source:http://www.atimes.com/article/malaysia-speaks-softly-south-china-sea/79.BusinessInsider,ChinaandVietnamagreetomaintainpeaceandstabilityindisputedSouthChinaSea–source:http://www.busi-nessinsider.com/china-and-vietnam-south-china-sea-agreement-2017-1180.ChannelNewsAsia,ChinademandsIndonesiaRescindDecisiontoRenamePartofSouthChinaSea–source:https://www.chan-nelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/china-demands-indonesia-rescind-deci-sion-to-rename-part-of-south-917999281.ChinaDaily,Chinesepetrochemicalcompanyannouncesinvest-menttoBrunei–source:http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2017-03/28/content_28704553.htm82.ChinaDaily,Indonesianrailprojectkicksoff–source:http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2017-04/06/content_28810172.htm83.ChinaDaily,VietnamoutofstepwithrestofASEAN–source:http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/2017-08/07/content_30362648.htm84.ChinaDaily,XidiscussescooperationwithBruneisultan–source:http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2017-09/14/con-tent_31969164.htm46 华东师范大学硕士学位论文85.CNBC,ChinaandthePhilippinesAgreetoCooperateon30pro-jectsworth37billion–source:https://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/23/china-phil-ippines-agree-to-cooperate-on-30-projects-worth-37-billion.html86.CNBC,IndonesiaIncreasesMaritimeDefenseinSouthChinaSea–source:https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/18/indonesia-increases-mari-time-defense-in-south-china-sea.html87.CreditSuisseGroup,ASEAN’spivottoChina–source:https://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&for-mat=PDF&sourceid=emcmt&document_id=1067047631&seri-alid=L90xGwS%2bwO3ZH1SHCxlpl8NOqRybz5p2xCPrU5YKI7U%3d88.EastAsiaForum,WhydidChineseinvestmentinthePhilippinesstagnate–source:http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2017/12/12/why-did-chi-nese-investment-in-the-philippines-stagnate/89.EY,Surveyonriskmanagementforoverseasinvestment–source:http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/ey-china-overseas-investment-report-issue-5-en/$FILE/EY-china-overseas-investment-report-issue-5-en.pdf90.FinancialTimes,ChinaovertakesSingaporeasMalaysianbig-gestinvestor–source:https://www.ft.com/content/91c3f288-1063-11e7-b030-76895439462391.Forbes,VietnambecomesAsia’smostaggressivemaritimena-tionafterChina–source:https://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphjen-nings/2017/10/05/vietnam-is-becoming-asias-most-aggressive-maritime-na-tion-after-china/#3fd8c2e737e092.ForeignPolicy,Brunei,SilentClaimantintheSouthChinaSea–source:https://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2016/04/28/brunei-silent-claimant-south-china-sea/93.ICRGMethodology–source:https://www.prsgroup.com/about-us/our-two-methodologies/icrg94.Kittelson&CarpoConsulting,China-Philippinerelationsex-pectedtoboostPhilippinesFDI–source:https://kittelsoncarpo.com/china-philippine-relations-expected-to-boost-philippines-fdi-to-11m/95.MinistryofCommerce,People’sRepublicofChina,Statistics–source:http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/article/statistic/96.NikoAssetManagement,TheRiseofChineseFDIintoASEAN–source:https://en.nikkoam.com/articles/2017/10/the-rise-of-chinese-fdi-into-asean97.OECD,ForeignDirectInvestmentforDevelopment–source:https://www.oecd.org/investment/investmentfordevelopment/1959815.pdf98.Reuters,DespitestrainsVietnamandChinaforgeclosereco-nomicties–source:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-vietnam-china/de-spite-strains-vietnam-and-china-forge-closer-economic-ties-idUSKCN1BC3S247 华东师范大学硕士学位论文99.Reuters,DutertealignsPhilippineswithChina–source:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-philippines-idUSKCN12K0AS100.StraitsTimes,JointcommuniqueonSouthChinaSeadisputebal-anced:Philippines–source:http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/joint-communique-on-south-china-sea-dispute-balanced-philippines101.TheDiplomat,HowChineseFDIwilltransformtheeconomy–source:https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/how-chinese-fdi-will-transform-the-global-economy/102.TheDiplomat,TheImportanceofthejointStatementontheUS-ASEANStrategicPartnership–source:https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/the-importance-of-the-joint-statement-on-the-us-asean-strategic-partnership/103.TheDiplomat,WhyIndonesiaJustRenameItsPartofSouthChinaSea–source:https://thediplomat.com/2017/07/why-did-indonesia-just-rename-its-part-of-the-south-china-sea/104.TheEconomicIntelligenceUnit,BruneitakesabackseatinSouthChinaSeadispute–source:http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?arti-cleid=1264194510&Country=Brunei&topic=Politics&subtopic=Fore-cast&subsubtopic=International+rela-tions&u=1&pid=226218806&oid=226218806&uid=1105.TheGuardian,ChinaandMalaysiaAgreeontheMilitaryCoop-erationintheSouthChinaSea–source:https://www.theguard-ian.com/world/2016/nov/02/china-and-malaysia-agree-on-military-coopera-tion-in-the-south-china-sea106.TheJakartaPost,InvestmentfromChinagrowsby92.79percent–source:http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2017/07/27/investment-from-china-grows-by-92-79-percent-board.html107.ThePRSGroup–source:https://www.prsgroup.com108.TheStateCouncilInformationOffice–source:http://www.china.org.cn/node_7247529/content_40569136.htm109.UNCTAD,WorldInvestmentReport2017–source:http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/wir2017_en.pdf110.Vietnamnet,ChineseInvestmentintoVietnamontheSharpRise–source:http://english.vietnamnet.vn/fms/business/172454/chinese-invest-ment-into-vietnam-on-the-sharp-rise.html111.WorldBankChinaOverview–source:http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/overview#1112.WorldBankOpenData–source:https://data.worldbank.org113.XinhuaNews,Indonesiakeentofurtherexpandtourismcooper-ationwithChina–source:http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-12/16/c_136829336.htm114.Xinhua,China-ASEANcooperation:http://cn-ph.china.org.cn/2012-02/27/content_4837848.htm48 华东师范大学硕士学位论文BooksinEnglishlanguage115.Brink,Charlotte–MeasuringPoliticalRisk:RiskstoForeignIn-vestments/C.Brink//USA,2016116.Chaises,Julien,andPhilippeGugler–ExpansionofTradeandFDIinAsia/J.Chaises,Ph.Gugler//USA,2009117.Gale,Bruce–PoliticalRisk&InternationalBusiness:CaseStud-iesinSoutheastAsia/B.Gale//Malaysia,2017118.Rosencrance,Richard–TheRiseoftheVirtualState/R.Rosen-crance//NewYork:BasicBooks,1999119.Shambaugh,David–PowerShift/D.Shambaugh//UniversityofCaliforniaPress,2006InternetresourcesinChineselanguage1.李鸿阶。东盟安全战略新调整及我国的对策【C】亚太经济：第5期，2003年，11-14页2.李辉。中越：高层互访促合作【A】世界知识：第22期，2005年3.翟崑。越南在中美之间【B】世界知识：第14期，2005年，28-29页49 华东师范大学硕士学位论文AppendixTableA.VariablesVariableDefinitionSourceFDIForeigndirectinvestment,netinflowsincurrentUSdol-UNCTAD(2017)larsGDPGrossNationalProduct,currentinternationalUSdollarsWorldBank(2017)GNIGrossNationalIncomepercapita,PPPcurrentinterna-WorldBank(2017)tionalUSdollarsOPENNESSTotalimportsandexportsdividedbyGrossDomesticWorldBank(2017)ProductINFLATIONChangeinGDPDeflatordividedbyGrossDomesticWorldBank(2017)ProductPOLITICALPoliticalrisk:governmentstability,investmentprofile,PRSGroup(2017)levelofcorruption,lawandorder,institutionalstrengthandqualityofbureaucracy,0-12scaleVISITSBilateralseniorvisitsbetweenChinaandtheASEANMinistryofForeignAffairsofthePeo-countriesple’sRepublicofChinaDISPUTESTerritorialdisputesbetweenChinaandtheASEANcoun-Author’sanalysisofthenewscoveragetriesonthisissuefrom2006to2016TableB.TheinputdatasetTERRITO-POLITICALRIALDIS-COUNTRYYEARCHINESEFDIRISKPUTESVISITSGDPGNIOPENNESSINFLATIONIDN200656.9402.1400.0000.1421,688.8741,370.00053.21314.087IDN200799.0902.3100.0000.2141,975.1671,600.00051.49611.259IDN2008173.9802.3900.0590.0712,300.3711,940.00055.00118.150IDN2009226.0902.2300.0000.1422,400.3682,140.00042.7458.275IDN2010201.3102.1400.0000.3573,113.4812,640.00046.7018.257IDN2011592.1902.1400.0591.0003,634.2773,080.00050.1807.466IDN20121,361.2902.0500.0001.0003,687.9543,570.00049.5833.754IDN20131,563.3802.1800.1180.6423,620.6643,730.00048.6374.96650 华东师范大学硕士学位论文IDN20141,271.9802.1800.4720.4283,491.5963,620.00048.0805.443IDN20151,450.5701.9200.3540.7853,336.1073,440.00041.8744.029IDN2016298.1852.1400.5310.2853,570.2953,400.00037.3872.450THA200615.8001.8500.0000.0713,368.9533,100.000134.0875.104THA200776.4001.7100.0590.4283,972.2063,530.000129.8732.473THA200845.5001.8400.0000.3574,378.6873,980.000140.4375.134THA200949.8001.8400.0000.5714,212.0554,140.000119.2700.195THA2010699.9001.8400.0000.0715,075.3024,580.000127.2504.081THA2011230.1001.9300.0000.4285,491.1604,950.000139.6763.743THA2012478.6001.9300.0000.9285,859.9165,520.000138.4991.910THA2013755.2001.9300.0000.3576,171.2625,730.000133.3451.781THA2014839.5001.8400.0000.5715,941.8415,750.000132.0661.261THA2015407.2001.8400.0000.2855,814.8635,690.000126.5850.594THA2016255.6001.8900.0000.5715,910.6215,640.000123.0721.778PHL20069.3002.2300.0000.1421,391.7721,540.00094.9414.949PHL20074.5002.2300.0000.3571,672.6851,770.00086.6193.090PHL200833.6902.2300.0590.1421,919.4662,060.00076.2827.549PHL200940.2402.2300.1180.1421,825.3422,260.00065.5902.773PHL2010244.0902.2300.0590.0712,129.4992,470.00071.4194.222PHL2011267.9002.2700.2360.4282,352.5182,620.00067.6984.022PHL201274.9002.2300.6490.2852,581.8192,980.00064.8991.968PHL201354.4002.2200.3540.0712,760.2893,300.00060.2452.045PHL2014224.9502.2200.4130.0002,842.9383,470.00061.4723.157PHL201527.5902.3100.3540.1422,878.3383,520.00062.690-0.587PHL201619.5472.4000.4130.4282,951.0723,580.00064.8991.659MYS20067.5102.5600.0000.2856,222.9835,850.000202.5783.981MYS200732.8202.6100.0000.1427,269.1716,780.000192.4661.88351 华东师范大学硕士学位论文MYS200834.4302.6100.0000.0008,513.6307,550.000176.66912.004MYS200953.7802.6100.0000.2857,326.7447,550.000162.559-5.016MYS2010163.5402.6100.0000.0719,071.3578,240.000157.9457.712MYS201195.1302.6100.0000.42810,405.1219,040.000154.9385.412MYS2012199.0402.6100.0590.35710,779.50810,150.000147.8421.000MYS2013616.3802.6100.0000.64210,882.28910,760.000142.7210.174MYS2014521.3402.6100.0000.71411,183.72911,010.000138.3122.467MYS2015488.9102.4700.0000.8579,648.55310,450.000133.551-0.375MYS2016883.1562.4700.1770.2859,508.2389,860.000128.6451.951SGP2006132.1503.5800.0000.14233,579.85932,080.000430.3921.720SGP2007397.7303.5800.0000.57139,223.58235,660.000398.7465.861SGP20081,550.9503.5800.0000.57139,721.04836,680.000441.604-1.492SGP20091,414.2503.5800.0000.35738,577.55837,080.000360.9323.521SGP20101,118.5003.5800.0000.28546,569.68044,790.000373.445-0.046SGP20113,268.9603.5800.0000.42853,166.67648,150.000379.5941.233SGP20121,518.7503.5800.0000.64254,431.16251,110.000370.9600.360SGP20132,032.6703.5800.0000.35756,029.18954,700.000365.965-0.239SGP20142,813.6303.5800.0000.42856,336.07255,720.000362.300-0.410SGP201510,452.4803.5800.0000.50053,629.73752,740.000329.9442.538SGP20165,367.6003.4900.1770.35752,962.49251,880.000318.420-1.435VNM200643.5202.3100.0000.571796.672720.000138.3148.569VNM2007110.8802.4900.0590.357919.209830.000154.6059.630VNM2008119.8402.3900.0000.6421,164.613980.000154.31722.673VNM2009112.3902.3900.0000.4281,232.3701,100.000134.7066.216VNM2010305.1302.2200.0000.3571,333.5841,250.000152.21712.074VNM2011189.1902.1300.2361.0001,542.6701,360.000162.91521.261VNM2012349.4302.1300.5310.4281,754.5481,530.000156.55410.92652 华东师范大学硕士学位论文VNM2013480.5002.1300.0590.9281,907.5641,710.000165.0944.761VNM2014332.8902.2200.7080.5712,052.3191,860.000169.5353.662VNM2015560.1702.2200.2950.8572,107.0131,950.000178.767-0.191VNM2016969.4382.2200.9440.6422,214.3882,060.000184.6861.111MMR200612.6401.0500.0000.285296.901300.0000.24821.300MMR200792.3101.1400.0000.214410.450360.0000.21823.644MMR2008232.5301.1400.0000.214643.951480.0000.18313.619MMR2009376.7001.1400.0000.214741.078650.0000.1674.879MMR2010875.6101.1400.0000.428987.737860.0000.1757.043MMR2011217.8201.1800.0000.3571,186.4241,020.0000.20010.255MMR2012748.9601.4500.0000.3571,175.5621,140.00022.3853.130MMR2013475.3301.4500.0000.6421,171.4641,230.00038.5814.378MMR2014343.1301.4100.0590.7851,260.4221,230.00042.2594.174MMR2015331.7201.5500.0000.3571,138.9921,190.00047.3604.137MMR2016205.4831.7200.0590.7851,195.5151,190.00045.4823.556KH20069.8101.4500.0000.428539.879520.000144.6144.631KH200764.4501.6400.0590.142631.676590.000138.2686.518KH2008204.6401.5100.0000.214745.788670.000133.32012.254KH2009215.8301.5100.0000.071738.233700.000105.1382.504KH2010466.5101.5100.0000.142785.693750.000113.6043.121KH2011566.0201.5100.0000.142882.490810.000113.5823.364KH2012559.6601.5100.0001.000950.024880.000120.7351.325KH2013499.3301.5100.0000.5711,028.420960.000128.1812.297KH2014438.2701.6700.0000.5001,098.6871,020.000129.0311.683KH2015419.6801.5100.0000.2851,163.1901,070.000127.8641.263KH2016501.5411.5100.0000.9281,269.9071,140.000126.9503.456LA200648.0401.6900.0000.428590.301510.00081.96110.80553 华东师范大学硕士学位论文LA2007154.3501.6900.0590.285709.767620.00079.2137.438LA200887.0001.6900.0000.428899.495750.00081.8498.863LA2009203.2401.6900.0000.142948.128890.00076.931-2.932LA2010313.5501.6800.0000.1421,141.1271,000.00084.7209.197LA2011458.5201.8100.0000.3571,304.3841,150.00091.69910.469LA2012808.8201.8100.0000.1421,588.6331,380.00098.1857.529LA2013781.4801.8100.0000.4281,838.8061,620.00098.1796.474LA20141,026.9002.5100.0000.4282,017.5881,840.00099.0605.727LA2015517.2102.5100.0000.5712,159.4342,000.00085.7992.349LA2016709.9812.5100.0001.0002,353.1372,150.00077.5983.023BRN20060.0003.0800.0000.14230,980.96727,580.00096.94110.048BRN20071.2003.0800.0000.00032,672.36730,930.00095.7501.120BRN20081.8003.0800.0000.14237,951.28134,160.000105.91412.693BRN20095.8003.0800.0000.00027,965.47532,470.000108.573-22.091BRN201016.5003.0800.0000.07135,268.10133,300.00095.37216.688BRN201120.1003.0800.0590.07147,017.02735,490.00099.53720.181BRN20129.9003.0800.0000.50047,651.25942,290.000105.6381.222BRN20138.5003.0800.0590.64244,597.28045,180.000110.937-2.824BRN20143.3002.9900.0000.14241,530.66942,930.00099.369-2.006BRN20153.9002.9000.0000.00030,967.89138,590.00084.897-17.468BRN20160.0002.9000.0000.28526,939.41832,860.00087.320-9.18154 华东师范大学硕士学位论文AcknowledgementTomyfamily.55