global macro-risk outlook updated for slower growth

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1、NOVEMBER12,2012CREDITPOLICYUpdatetotheGlobalMacro-RiskOutlookGLOBALRISKPRESPECTIVES2012-14:SlowAdjustmenttoWeighonGrowthTableofContents:ExecutiveSummaryEXECUTIVESUMMARY1FORECASTSFOR2012-14:SLOWThecontinuedweakpaceofrecoveryfromtherecentfinancialcrisisandglobaldownt

2、urnADJUSTMENTTOWEIGHONGROWTH2haspromptedustoreassessourgrowthforecastsfortheG-20economies.WenowexpectDOWNSIDERISKSTOTHEFORECASTSGDPgrowthacrossthesenationstobeweakerthanpreviouslythought,asthestructuralREMAINUNCHANGED12MOODY’SRELATEDRESEARCH14economicadjustmentstha

3、tneedtoensuematerializeonlyslowlyinthefaceoftheglobalslowdown.AnalystContacts:IntheG-20advancedeconomies,weexpectonlyagradualstrengtheningingrowthoverthecomingtwoyears.FiscalconsolidationandvolatilityinfinancialmarketswillcontinuetoNEWYORK+1.212.553.1653weighonbusi

4、nessandconsumerconfidence,whileheighteneduncertaintyhampersElenaDuggar+1.212.553.1911spending,hiringandinvestmentdecisions.Overall,weexpectrealGDPgrowthintheG-20GroupCreditOfficer-SovereignRiskadvancedeconomiesofaround1.3%in2012,followedby1.6%in2013and2.0%in2014.el

5、ena.duggar@moodys.comFor2013,thatisaround0.5percentagepoints(ppts)weakerthaninourAugustforecastRichardCantor+1.212.553.3628update.ChiefRiskOfficerrichard.cantor@moodys.comWecontinuetoexpecttheG-20emergingeconomiestooutpaceothercountriesintheG-20.BartOosterveld+1.21

6、2.553.7914ManagingDirector-SovereignRiskButgrowthprospectsforemergingeconomieshavealsomoderated,reflectingthefurtherbart.oosterveld@moodys.comdecelerationinworldtradeandthelackofsignificantnewimpetusfromdomesticdemand.MadhiSekhon+1.212.553.3780Overall,weexpectrealG

7、DPgrowthintheseeconomiestobealittleover5%in2012,AssociateAnalystslightlyweakerthanourAugustforecast.Weexpectgrowthtopickupgraduallytoaroundmadhi.sekhon@moodys.com5½%in2013,and5¾%in2014.LONDON+44.20.7772.5454Downsideriskstotheforecastarebroadlyconsistentwithourprevi

8、ousassessmentinAugust.ColinEllis+44.20.7772.1609SeniorVicePresidentCrystallizationofanyoneoftherisksoutlinedcouldposeathreattotheoutlookforglobal