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1、TimeforboldactionGlobalbankingoutlook2013–14WhenweissuedourfirstglobalbankingoutlookinMarch2012,therewaslittledoubtthattheenvironmentwouldbeadifficultoneforbanks.ForEuropeaninstitutionsinparticular,expectationswereweightedverymuchtowardthenegative.Evenintherapid-growthmarkets(RGMs
2、),aslowdowninChinaandlowerdomesticgrowthforecastswerecausesforconcern.Fastforwardtotheendof2012—theprospectsarebetterbutnotgreat.Retailandsmallbusinesscustomersstillhavelimitedtrustinthebankingindustry.Furtherexamplesofregulatoryandcompliancebreachesduringthecourseofthisyearhavedo
3、nelittletoshiftthatopinion.Largecorporationsremainwaryofcommittingtosignificantinvestment,andmanyaresittingonmajorcashreserves.Theregulatorylandscapemaybelessopaquenow,butitiscertainlynolesschallenging.Someaspectsofthechangeagendaremainunknown,andthereisaworryingshifttowardamorena
4、tionalistapproachbysupervisorsacrossarangeofjurisdictions.However,consumerconfidenceisslowlyreturningintheUS,andGDPgrowthisheadingbacktowardpre-crisislevelsacrossarangeofRGMs.Aswelookaheadto2013and2014,theoutlookforbankswilldependpartiallyontheirlocationandtheircustomerbase.Ofcour
5、se,itwillalsohingeonthedecisionsthatbanksmakeoverthecomingmonthsandyears.Forsome,thefocuswillbeonpositioningthemselvestobenefitfromthenextwaveofexplosivegrowth;forothersitwillbeacaseofrepositioningforsurvival.Thedriversforchangemaybedifferent,butbanksinbothcampsshouldbelookingataf
6、undamentalreshapingoftheirbusinessandoperatingmodels.Manybankswillnotadaptsuccessfullytothenewenvironmentthroughincrementalshifts;instead,boldanddecisiveactionisneeded.Asbanksconsidertheiroptions,everyaspectoftheorganizationwillcomeunderscrutiny.Althoughthetaskisdaunting,examining
7、allofthesecomponentstogetherprovidesbankswithanopportunitytoreshapethewholeorganizationratherthanembarkingonmultiple,potentiallydisjointedchangeprojects.Inthiseditionoftheoutlook,we’veoutlinedtheissues,challengesandopportunitiesforwhatwebelievewillbethe10keycomponentsforbankstocon
8、sider.Wehopeyoufindituseful,andwe
