CITI ON GLOBAL GROWTH

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1、GlobalEconomics22February2012│80pagesGlobalEconomicOutlookandStrategyFebruary2012Weareedgingourglobalgrowthforecastsupslightlythismonth,andnowexpectglobalgrowthof2.4%in2012,versus2.3%lastmonth,withour2013forecaststayingChiefEconomistat3.0%.PPP-weighted,weforecastgl

2、obalgrowthof3.0%in2012(2.9%lastmonth)WillemBuiterand3.5%in2013(unchanged).Theupwardrevisionissmall,butamarkedcontrastto+44-20-7986-5944therepeateddowngradessinceearly2011.Thismonth,weareraisingourgrowth2012willem.buiter@citi.comforecastsfortheeuroarea,JapanandMexico

3、.WestillexpectUSgrowthofabout2%forboth2012and2013,whileforChinaourbasecaseisforgrowthtoslowtoaboutEurope8%YoYinH1,followedbyapolicy-inducedH2rebound.MichaelSaunders+44-20-7986-3299TheGreecepackage—of“voluntary”PSI,secondbailoutpackageandextendedfiscalmichael.saunde

4、rs@citi.comausterity—cutsrisksofimmediatedisorderlydefaultandEMUexit.However,wedoJapannotbelievethispackagewillsucceedinitsstatedaimofreturningGreecetoa120%debt/GDPratioin2020.WeforecastafurtherprolongedeconomicdepressionplusaKiichiMurashimasizeableshortfallinprivat

5、izationrevenuesthat(withcurrentplans)wouldleavethe+81-3-6270-4981debt/GDPratioatabout160-170%in2020,similartotheTroika’s“tailoreddownsidekiichi.murashima@citi.comscenario”.Furtherdebtrestructuringislikely.WecontinuetoputthechanceofGreekNorthAmericaEMUexitinthenextye

6、arortwoatabout50%.Moreover,weexpectthateconomicRobertVDiClementegrowthwilldisappointthisyearandsubsequently—anddeficitswillovershootofficial+1-212-816-7942targets—alsoinPortugal,Ireland,ItalyandSpain.Greece’ssovereigndebtratingisrobert.diclemente@citi.comlikelytobed

7、owngradedneartermandweexpectaseriesoffurtherdowngradesamongadvancedeconomiesoverthenext2-3years.EmergingMarketsDavidLubinAgainstthat,awiderangeofcentralbanksrecentlyhaveloosenedpolicythrough+44-20-7986-3302variousmeans.Furthermonetaryandliquidityexpansionislikely,e

8、speciallyifdavid.p.lubin@citi.comdownsideriskstogrowthdominate.Inparticular,weexpecttheECBwillcutitskeypolicyrateto0.5%laterthisyearandthi