citi global economic outlook and strategy

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1、CitiResearchEconomics22August2012│60pagesGlobalGlobalEconomicOutlookandStrategyAugust2012Ourglobalgrowthforecastsarelittlechangedthismonth.Wecontinuetolookforglobalgrowth(atcurrentexchangerates)ofabout2.5%thisyearand2.8%in2013ChiefEconomist(unchangedfromJuly).

2、Withinthat,weareliftingour2012growthforecastfortheWillemBuiterindustrialcountriesto1.3%from1.1%inJulyandcuttingour2012emergingmarket+44-20-7986-5944growthforecastto4.7%from4.9%.Nevertheless,westillexpectEMgrowthtowillem.buiter@citi.comexceedtheadvancedeconomies

3、byawidemargin.EMoutperformanceisunderpinnedbysupply-sidefactorsratherthanbuoyantspendinginadvancedGlobalHeadofInternationalEconomicseconomies,andthedriversofEMoutperformanceareintact—industrialisationNathanSheetscatch-up,urbanisation,risingsouth-southtradeandhi

4、ghresourceprices.+1-212-816-9297nathan.sheets@citi.comWecontinuetoexpectthattheEMUcrisiswillpersist,withprolongedeconomicweakness—especiallyinperipherycountries—andfurtherperiodsofintenseEuropefinancialmarketstress.WeagainputtheprobabilitythatGreecewillexitthe

5、euroMichaelSaundersarea(ie“Grexit”)inthenext12-18monthsatabout90%and,withinthattimeframe,+44-20-7986-3299wethinkitisincreasinglylikelythatGrexitwilloccurinthenext6monthsorso,michael.saunders@citi.comconceivablyevenasearlyasSeptember/Octoberdependingontheoutcome

6、oftheSeptemberTroikareportonGreece.ThereisacrucialseriesofmeetingsandJapaneventsincomingweeksthatmayclarifyhowthisplaysout.WiththeECB’sbondKiichiMurashimapurchaseprogramme,togetherwiththeEFSF/ESMandsomefinancialrepression+81-3-6270-4981ofbanks,Europeanpolicymak

7、erscannowprobablyconstructanadequatefirewallkiichi.murashima@citi.comtofundItalyandSpainforacoupleofyearsandensurethatGrexit(ifithappens)wouldnotcausetheeuroareaasawholetounravel.Evenso,GrexitprobablyNorthAmericawouldcausefurthercapitalflightoutofperipheryasset

8、s.RobertVDiClemente+1-212-816-7942Majorcentralbanksarelikelytokeeppolicylooseorloosenfurtherincomingrobert.diclemente@citi.commonths,readytoactpromptlyifgrowthdisappointsor