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1、Luxury:theglobaleconomicoutlookByTimJackson,WGSN,24June2014Thereiscautiousoptimismregardingtheworldeconomy,butluxurygrowthisforecasttoweakenandChina'sslowdownisalsoraisingconcerns.WGSNANALYSISTheglobaleconomicoutlookisbrighter,andisexpectedtoperformbetterthisyearandnextyearthaninthe
2、recentpast,althoughtherearestillreasonstobecautious.Bain&Coisforecastingagrowthslowdownforgloballuxurygoodssalesto4-6%in2014Globalstockmarketsareoverinflatedconsideringthelevelofgeopoliticalrisk,whiletherearestilluncertaintiesoverthesustainabilityofeconomicrecoveriesintheUSandEUChin
3、a'sslowingeconomycouldslowevenfurther.Therecouldalsobeamini–albeitshort-termandself-contained–financialcrisis,fuelledbyaspendingbubbleandhighdebtlevelsInthelonger-term,however,theoutlookforChinaispositive.Theexpectationisthatitwillmovetoademand-ledeconomywithafocusonconsumerspending
4、,whileitsglobalcompetitionwillbebasedoninnovationratherthanpriceTheglobaleconomyisimprovingandtheoutlookisbrighterthantherecentpast,buttherearestillplentyofareasforconcern,apanelofexpertsattheFTBusinessofLuxurySummitinMexicoCitysaid.Themixedmessagesarelikelytobecloselylistenedtobyth
5、eindustry,particularlywitharecentBain&Costudysuggestingthatgloballuxurygoodssaleswillgrowmoreslowlythisyear,dippingtoa4-6%increasethisyearagainst6.5%in2013.Sowhatarethemaineconomicthemesthatbusinessesshouldbeawareofwhenplottingstrategy?Firstly,althoughthereisanairofoptimism,itshould
6、becautiouslywelcomed."Overall,theworldeconomyisgoingtoperformbetterthisyearandnextyearthanitdidinthepast[fewyears],"saidMartinWolf,chiefeconomicscommentatorattheFinancialTimes.WillemBuiter,globalchiefeconomistatCiti,saidtheworldisgrowingatabout3%at©WGSN2014market-exchangerates,witha
7、dvancedeconomiespickingupsomeoftheslackbeingcreatedbyemergingeconomies.Yetthereisalsoaviewthatthereareplentyofpotentialbumpsintheroad,withtheworldeconomyinunchartedwatersandstillvulnerabletogeopoliticalshocks.ThenewnormalMartinWolf,chiefeconomicscommentator,FinancialWillemBuiter,glo
8、balchiefeconomist,C
