Citi-Global Economic China Equity Outlook and Strategy

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1、GlobalEconomics29November2010104pagesGlobalEconomicOutlookandStrategyProspectsforEconomiesandFinancialMarketsin2011andBeyond2011islikelytobeanotheryearofstrongbutunevenglobalgrowth.WeforecastglobalGDPgrowthofabout3.4%in2011and3.8%in2012—somewhatbelowChi

2、efEconomistthe2010pace(3.9%)—butstillabovethe1999-08averageof2.9%YoY.TheWillemBuiterexpansionwillremainveryuneven,moresothaninpriorrecoveries.EMAsiashould+44-20-7986-5944againoutperformasthemulti-decadetransformationalboomsinChinaandIndiawillem.buiter@cit

3、i.comcontinue,notjustin2011butformanyyearsafter.IndustrialcountriesoverallEuropeshouldrecordonlymodestgrowthin2011becauseofprivatesectordeleveragingand,inmanycases,fiscalconsolidation.DivergencesarelikelytoremainacuteinMichaelSaunderstheeuroarea,withconti

4、nuedabove-trendgrowthinGermanybut—evenafter+44-20-7986-3299severerecessions—littleornogrowthintheperipherycountries.Globalmichael.saunders@citi.comimbalancesshouldstayhigh.JapanTheFed,ECBandBoJarealllikelytokeeppolicyratesonholdin2011.WehaveKiichiMurashi

5、madelayedourforecastforthefirstECBhikeinto2012.TheFedprobablywillkeep+81-3-6270-4981ratesonholduntilwellinto2012,withtheBoJonholduntilatleastlate2013.Onlykiichi.murashima@citi.comafewindustrialcountriesarelikelytohikeratesin2011:thosewithhighgrowthNorthAm

6、erica(e.g.Australia,Sweden,Switzerland)and—amidststickyinflation—perhapstheUK.Bycontrast,withstronggrowthandrisinginflationpressures,tighteningshouldRobertVDiClementebewidespreadacrossEMinAsiaandLatAm.WeexpectChinatohikebyafurther+1-212-816-7942robert.dic

7、lemente@citi.com125bpbyend-2011andmorethereafter.EmergingMarketsChiefEconomistEssaybyWillemBuiter,seepage22.Thereisnoabsolutelysafesovereign—‘ratesanalysis’hastobedonetogetherwith‘creditanalysis’.Ireland’sDavidLubinbailoutpackagewillbuysometime,butdoesno

8、taddressitsfundamentalsolvency+44-20-7986-3302issues.TheIrishcasealsohighlightstheneedforanEA/EUwidebankresolutiondavid.p.lubin@citi.comregime.PortugalislikelytoaccesstheEFSFsoon,inourview.JohannaChua+852-2501-2357