The Global Financial Crisis An Anatomy of Global Growth.pdf

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1、WP/13/76TheGlobalFinancialCrisis:AnAnatomyofGlobalGrowthTroyMatheson©2013InternationalMonetaryFundWP/13/76IMFWorkingPaperResearchDepartmentTheGlobalFinancialCrisis:AnAnatomyofGlobalGrowthPreparedbyTroyMatheson*AuthorizedfordistributionbyHamidFaruqeeMarch2013ThisWorkingPapershouldnotbere

2、portedasrepresentingtheviewsoftheIMF.TheviewsexpressedinthisWorkingPaperarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseoftheIMForIMFpolicy.WorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtofurtherdebate.AbstractTheglobalfinancialcrisiswasas

3、tarkreminderoftheimportanceofcross-countrylinkagesintheglobaleconomy.Wedocumentgrowthsynchronizationacrossadiversegroupof185countriescovering7regions,andpayparticularattentiontotheperiodaroundtheglobalfinancialcrisis.Adynamicfactormodelisusedtodecomposeeachcountry’sgrowthintocontributio

4、nsfromglobal,regional,andidiosyncraticshocks.Wefindahighdegreeofglobalsynchronizationover1990to2011,particularlyacrossadvancedeconomies.Examiningtheperiodaroundtheglobalfinancialcrisis,wefindglobalshockshadlargeandwidespreadeffectsongrowth,withmorediversityingrowthexperiencesintheearlyp

5、artoftherecovery.Inarecursiveexperiment,wefindrisingglobalgrowthsynchronizationjustpriortothecrisis,largelyresultingfromashiftintheimportanceofglobalshocksbetweencountries.Incontrast,thecrisisperiodcausedamuchmorewidespreadincreaseingrowthsynchronization,andwasfollowedbyasimilarlypervas

6、ivedecreaseinsynchronizationintheearlyrecovery.JELClassificationNumbers:C11,C32,E32,F42,F41Keywords:Globalization,FinancialCrisis,GrowthSynchronizationAuthor’sE-MailAddress:tmatheson@imf.org.*TheauthorwouldliketoacknowledgecommentsfromHamidFaruqeeandEmilStavrev.ContentsPageIIntroduction

7、......................................3IIMethodology.....................................4AAModelofGlobalGrowth...........................4BModelingAnnualVariables...........................5CAggregationEquations.............................6DMethodologicalLimitations..........