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1、CharlesKindleberger:AnatomyofaTypicalFinancialCrisisJanuary03,2009WestartwiththemodelofthelateHymanMinsky,amanwithareputationamongmonetarytheoristsforbeingparticularlypessimistic,evenlugubrious,inhisemphasisonthefragilityofthemonetarysystemanditspropensitytodisaster.Althou
2、ghMinskywasamonetarytheoristratherthananeconomichistorian,hismodellendsitselfeffectivelytotheinterpretationofeconomicandfinancialhistory.Indeed,initsemphasisontheinstabilityofthecreditsystem,itisalinealdescendantofamodel,setoutwithpersonalvariations,byahostofclassicalecono
3、mistsincludingJohnStuartMill,AlfredMarshall,KnutWicksell,andIrvingFisher.LikeFisher,Minskyattachedgreatimportancetotheroleofdebtstructuresincausingfinancialdifficulties,andespeciallydebtcontractedtoleveragetheacquisitionofspeculativeassetsforsubsequentresale.AccordingtoMin
4、sky,eventsleadinguptoacrisisstartwitha“displacement,"someexogenous,outsideshocktothemacroeconomicsystem.Thenatureofthisdisplacementvariesfromonespeculativeboomtoanother.Itmaybetheoutbreakorendofawar,abumperharvestorcropfailure,thewidespreadadoptionofaninventionwithpervasiv
5、eeffects---canals,railroads,theautomobile---somepoliticaleventorsurprisingfinancialsuccess,ordebtconversionthatprecipitouslylowersinterestrates.Anunanticipatedchangeofmonetarypolicymightconstitutesuchadisplacementandsomeeconomistswhothinkmarketshaveitrightandgovernmentswro
6、ngblame"policy-switching"forsomefinancialinstability.Butwhateverthesourceofthedisplacement,ifitissufficientlylargeandpervasive,itwillaltertheeconomicoutlookbychangingprofitopportunitiesinatleastoneimportantsectoroftheeconomy.Displacementbringsopportunitiesforprofitinsomene
7、worexistinglinesandclosesoutothers.Asaresult,businessfirmsandindividualswithsavingsorcreditseektotakeadvantageoftheformerandretreatfromthelatter.Ifthenewopportunitiesdominatethosethatlose,investmentandproductionpickup.Aboomisunderway.InMinsky’smodel,theboomisfedbyanexpansi
8、onofbankcreditthatenlargesthetotalmoneysupply.Bankstypicallycanexpandmoney,whetherbytheis
