The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses

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1、TheFinancialCrisisandthePolicyResponses:AnEmpiricalAnalysisofWhatWentWrong*JohnB.TaylorNovember2008Abstract:ThispaperisanempiricalinvestigationoftheroleofgovernmentactionsandinterventionsinthefinancialcrisisthatflaredupinAugust2007.Itintegratesandsummarizessever

2、alongoingempiricalresearchprojectswiththeaimoflearningfrompastpolicyandtherebyimprovingfuturepolicy.Theevidenceispresentedinaseriesofchartswhicharebackedupbystatisticalanalysisintheseresearchprojects.Whatcausedthefinancialcrisis?Whatprolongedit?Whydiditworsensod

3、ramaticallymorethanayearafteritbegan?Rarelyineconomicsisthereasingleanswertosuchquestions,buttheempiricalresearchIpresentinthispaperstronglysuggeststhatspecificgovernmentactionsandinterventionsshouldbefirstonthelistofanswerstoallthree.Ifocusontheperiodfromthesta

4、rtofthecrisisthroughOctober2008whenmarketconditionsdeterioratedprecipitouslyandrapidly.Idrawonresearchpapers,speechesatcentralbanks,andcongressionaltestimonyIhave1givenonthecrisisduringthepasttwoyears.ThispaperisbasedonthekeynotelecturedeliveredinOttawaonNovembe

5、r14ataconferenceinhonorofDavidDodge,formerGovernoroftheBankofCanada.FollowinganapproachtopolicyadvocatedbyDavidDodgethroughouthisdistinguishedcareerinpublicservice,Itrytouseempiricalevidencetothemaximumextentpossibleandexplaintheanalysisinthesimplestpossibleterm

6、s,includingbyusingaseriesofillustrativegraphs.1.WhatCausedtheFinancialCrisis?Theclassicexplanationoffinancialcrises,goingbackhundredsofyears,isthattheyarecausedbyexcesses—frequentlymonetaryexcesses—whichleadtoaboomandaninevitablebust.Intherecentcrisiswehadahousi

7、ngboomandbustwhichinturnledtofinancialturmoilintheUnitedStatesandothercountries.Ibeginbyshowingthatmonetaryexcesseswerethemaincauseofthatboomandtheresultingbust.*ProfessorofEconomics,StanfordUniversityandSeniorFellow,HooverInstitution.IamgratefultoJohnCogan,Ange

8、loMelino,JohnMurray,GeorgeShultzandparticipantsintheGlobalMarketsWorkingGroupforhelpfulcommentsandsuggestions.1Irefertothisresearchinthispaperusingthebracketednumbers