chinese economic policy since the global financial crisis_the ne

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1、ChineseEconomicPolicysincetheGlobalFinancialCrisis:TheNewStateActivismBarryNaughtonUniversityofCalifornia,SanDiegoRiodeJaneiroSincetheGlobalFinancialCrisis…ThefinancialcrisiswasamajorturningpointinChineseeconomicpolicy.Governmenthasbecomemuchmoreactivelyengagedinshapingthetrajec

2、toryofeconomicdevelopment.Twosimplepoints:Thischangeisnewandsignificant.Itrepresentsanenormousgamble,withcostsandbenefitsthatarenotyetknown.1.Background:TheBigPictureBytheturnofthe21stcentury,Chinahadaccomplishedtworemarkablethings.No.1,ithadestablishedthefundamentalframeworkofam

3、arketeconomy,includingAsubstantialroleforprivatebusinessAsolidfoundationforpublicfinancesAgreementonaframeworkforinternationalexchanges,throughW.T.O.accession.Rudimentsofadomesticlegalandregulatoryframework.DiverseOwnershipStructureLaunchnewtaxsystemandSOEreformNo.2:HighInput,Hig

4、hGrowthAninstitutionalframeworkthatwashighlytailoredtosupportinvestmentandgrowth.Highestphysicalcapitalinvestmentrateintheworld;Veryrapidlaborforcegrowth.Highestsustainedgrowthrateeverachievedbyanyeconomy.Highcost:Consumption/GDPlow;energyandmaterialsusagehigh;pollutionserious;in

5、comedistributionbad&deteriorating.Notsustainable:Laborforcegrowthandstructuraltransformationmustslowdown;asincomesandwagesrise,willChinaface“middleincometrap”?2.Hu-WenAdministration(2003-13)SoughttoModifyEconomicStrategyReformFatigue:Highunemploymentaftermasslay-offs;healthsystem

6、collapsed;anxietyaboutimpendingWTOmembership.Soughta“people-oriented”policy(以人为本),anda“harmonioussociety(和谐社会).Whatwasthecontentofthesenewpoliciestobe?Howradicaladeparturefromthe1990s?Examinethreekeypolicyareastofindout:A.RebuildWelfareInstitutionsCautiousandincrementalefforttore

7、buildsocialserviceinstitutionsandreducethelargeurban-ruralgap.Moderatebutunambiguouslypositiveeffects:Agriculturaltaxesreduced,thenabolished.Toaccommodatethereductioninlocalrevenuesthenationalfiscalsystembecamemuchmoreredistributive.Pilotprogramtopromoteuniversalfreeelementaryedu

8、cationcreatedandgraduallyexpanded.Pilotr