chinese economy and global financial crisis

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1、TheNatureofChina’sEconomyandGlobalFinancialCrisisProfessorJunZhangChinaCenterforEconomicStudies,FudanUniversityStylizedFactsHigherSavingRates;HigherInvestment/GDPratios;RisingExport/GDPratio;Lowproductivitygrowthinnon-tradablesector;Employmentcreatedinmanufac

2、turingsectors;Bank-basedfinancialsystem;Interestratesandexchangeratesfixed;Defactocapitalmobility;China’sExchangeRate(YuanagainstUSDollar)Export/GDPInflowofFDIsBalanceofTrade(1978-2004)BalanceofTradebyPartnersForeignExchangeReservesThemostdynamicpartofChinese

3、realeconomyistheprivateandexportingsectors;Buttheyhavebeenconsistentlyfacingfinancialconstraints;Since1999,however,oneoftheimportantdriversofChina’sboomhasbeentheemergenceandexpansionofurbanrealestatemarkets;Freehousingsystemterminatednationallyin1999;Sinceth

4、en,urbanhousingsectorwasstimulatedwithcontinuousexpansionofbankcredits;Urbanhousingboomcreatedhugerevenuesforlocalgovernmentsandstimulatedhousinginvestments;RealestateinvestmentsaccountedforrisingshareofcapitalconstructioninChina;Housingboomtransmittedintosto

5、ckmarketboomandassetspricessoar;Housingboomledtoimprovedprofitabilityinupstreamandbasicindustries;China’sboom(1998-2007)wasdueto:Expansionofexports;Assetsboom;Fixedexchangeratesinvitedrapidinflowofcapitalandinducedpassiveexpansionofmoneysupply;M2/GDPhasbeenri

6、sing;Excessiveliquiditygrowthfueledassetspricesandlateronledtoinflationofnon-tradablegoods;Profitability(%)1995-19992000200120022003200420052006Upstream4.911.011.211.112.816.619.622.1Middle-stream2.03.93.94.34.94.94.85.7Downstream2.94.44.64.95.35.05.15.6Regul

7、atedSectors2.00.1-0.31.01.93.2-1.0-1.1Chineseeconomybeganthedownwardprocessofadjustmentsin2007whenassetspricesrecordedhistoricalhighandsupply-sideinflationbegantobreakout;Monetarypolicyfaceddilemma:contractionworksassetssector,buthurtsexportingsectorduetolack

8、ofmarket-basedfinancinginstitutions;Chinesegovernmentdecidedtotightenbankcreditsintheearlyofthisyear,andbyMay,exportingsectorfacedinadequacyoffinanceandclosuresofbusinesshappened;China’se