The Global Financial Crisis and全球金融危机 发展中的世界

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1、TheMarxist,XXV1–2,January–June2009JAYATIGHOSHTheGlobalFinancialCrisisandtheDevelopingWorldThereisnodoubtthattheperiodofcapitalistglobalisationhasmadetheworldeconomymoreintegratedthaneverbefore,andthishasbecomeparticularlyevidentinthecourseofthecurrentgl

2、obaleconomiccrisis.Thepastyearhasmadeitclearthatdevelopingcountriesarenotimmunetothestormsraginginfinancialmarketsinindustrialcountries,ortotheimpactofrecessioninthecoreofcapitalism.AsTable1indicates,therehasbeenaremarkabledegreeofglobalsynchronicityint

3、hechangesinrateofgrowthofnationalincomeoverthepastfewyears.Thisissomewhatunusualinthehistoryofglobalcapitalism.Formostofthepastcentury,businesscyclesinadvancedeconomiesdidnotgetreflectedsosharplyinsimultaneousmovementsindevelopingcountries,orweregeneral

4、lyconfinedtoonlyasmallsetofcountries.Butrecenteconomicdifficultieshavebeenparticularlyextremeincertainregions,suchaseasternandcentralEurope,whichwereuntilrecentlythe“beneficiaries”oflargeamountsofinflowsofspeculativefinancecapital(‘hotmoney)thatcreatedd

5、omesticbubblesnotunlikeTHEMARXISTTable1:RatesofgrowthofGDPinconstantprices(percent)WorldAdvancedDevelopingChinaIndiaeconomies&transitioneconomies20004.74.06.08.45.720012.21.33.88.33.920022.81.64.99.14.620033.61.96.310.06.920044.93.27.510.17.920054.52.67

6、.110.49.220065.13.08.011.69.820075.22.78.413.09.320083.20.86.19.17.32009*-1.3-3.81.66.54.5*IMFprojectionsSource:IMFWorldEconomicOutlookApril2009(forallTablesandChartsinthisarticle).thelargerandmoredramaticoneintheUS.Butallregionsofthedevelopingworldhave

7、beenaffected,tovaryingdegreesbythisparticularcrisis.Theextentofimpactdependsnotonlyonthedegreeofexportdependenceofdevelopingcountriesbutalso–andoftenmorecrucially–onthedependenceoncapitalflows,includingportfolioinvestment,banklending,foreigndirectinvest

8、ment(FDI)andalsoforeignaid.Thefirstsectionconsiderstheimpactupondevelopingcountriesingeneral,particularlythoseinAsia,whilethesecondsectionanalysestherecentexperienceofIndia.I.THEIMPACTONDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIESBeforethecrisismanymains